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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 31, 2023

[ Thursday, March 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 1, 2023 ]

DAY 182 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/01/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.80°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.077
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 5

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 156 in
SWE DAY: 89
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -103

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-01 04:00:06OBSERVATION2023182-10325.4199221.7999423.60993156.207036666670.269999999999980.309999999999983.413.72TF-6.580085.4199289434.81462790486 67.9211045243370.07699862534711916 1112123DRYL
2023-04-01 00:00:01FORECAST2023182-10226.619.1322.865163.777046256480.948819410.988819413.414.39881941TF-5.46.690438.5272187062471.8206925827760.09706310426474161113124.5WETL
2023-03-31 12:00:02FORECAST2023182-10225.89819.5822.739159.989789206691.015748581.055748583.414.46574858TF-6.1025.89890436.9867133865969.9134121608450.08471161123806161114126WETL
2023-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2023182-10226.38420.3923.387159.788853734090.992126521.032126523.414.44212652TF-5.6166.38490436.9045661296569.8124798130460.093129883043502161114126WETL
2023-03-31 04:00:11FORECAST2023182-10226.92419.6723.297159.341830997330.960630441.000630443.414.41063044TF-5.0766.92490436.7216620177769.5880292621090.10318869442071161114126WETL
2023-03-31 00:00:02FORECAST2023182-10326.34819.45422.901162.003817230990.952756420.992756423.414.40275642TF-5.6523.34889437.1982767238370.8277897160720.092485925147635161114126WETL
2023-03-30 20:00:01FORECAST2023182-10326.52819.18422.856162.235084864771.019685591.059685593.414.46968559TF-5.4723.52889437.2926483757470.9442099199780.095738750861849161114126WETL
2023-03-30 16:00:02FORECAST2023182-10326.79819.86823.333162.263932056941.039370641.079370643.414.48937064TF-5.2023.79889437.3044159453170.958734037150.10077408553195161114126WETL
2023-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2023182-10327.10420.40823.756162.043874399251.000000541.040000543.414.45000054TF-4.8964.10489437.2146265222270.8479520256840.10671036582768161114126WETL
2023-03-30 08:00:06FORECAST2023182-10327.06820.85823.963161.9857028610.976378481.026378483.414.43637848TF-4.9324.06889437.1908825871370.8186724002980.10599920327652161114126WETL
2023-03-30 04:00:12FORECAST2023182-10326.4220.49823.459161.510765053390.956693430.996693433.414.40669343TF-5.581.4289436.9968954400870.5797029084830.093777137501754161114126WETL
2023-03-30 00:00:05FORECAST2023182-10327.03220.10223.567163.677660723070.850394160.850394163.414.26039416TF-4.9683.03289437.8800597907371.6711838638250.10529146077088161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 20:00:03FORECAST2023182-10327.3220.87624.098163.646323575990.842520140.842520143.414.25252014TF-4.685.3289437.8673222800771.6553775051960.11104948170461161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 16:00:04FORECAST2023182-10326.79819.77823.288163.5712223460.791339010.791339013.414.20133901TF-5.2023.79889437.8367919948571.6174992546510.10077408553195161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 12:00:02FORECAST2023182-10327.28419.36423.324163.466400109240.803150040.803150043.414.21315004TF-4.7164.28489437.7941697349971.5646369153920.11031767968231161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 08:00:03FORECAST2023182-10326.70820.19223.45163.537817542530.818898080.818898083.414.22889808TF-5.2923.70889437.8232103434571.600652289030.099074687238418161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 04:00:18FORECAST2023182-10327.6820.76824.224163.536961485330.889764260.889764263.414.29976426TF-4.325.6889437.8228622744571.6002205651730.11855859412597161113124.5WETL
2023-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2023182-10326.99620.15623.576165.578102012890.661417680.811417683.414.22141768TF-5.0043.99689438.6506340608772.6309394345510.10458713243652161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2023182-10325.9720.10223.036165.169887596390.606299540.686299543.414.09629954TF-6.033.9789438.4854283947572.4245889206140.08592156160379161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 16:00:05FORECAST2023182-10326.67221.09223.882164.786176434220.555118410.625118413.414.03511841TF-5.3283.67289438.3299830141172.2307219173710.098400810275209161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 12:00:05FORECAST2023182-10326.65420.3923.522165.246995144890.602362530.732362533.414.14236253TF-5.3461.65489438.516647187272.4635582686960.098065129027018161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 08:00:05FORECAST2023182-10327.89620.76824.332165.076836413980.606299540.706299543.424.12629954TF-4.1045.89689438.4477463073272.377566893250.12323214053716161113124.5WETL
2023-03-28 04:00:14FORECAST2023182-10327.96819.8523.909164.20744512790.496063260.556063263.423.97606326TF-4.0325.96889438.0952461899371.9385010995270.12481821436048161113124.5DRYL
2023-03-28 00:00:06FORECAST2023182-10326.65419.95823.306167.143076347750.401575020.451575023.413.86157502TF-5.3462.65489439.2823993576473.4230116140570.098065129027018161112123DRYL
2023-03-27 20:00:05FORECAST2023182-10326.7819.18422.982167.318722672040.429134090.479134093.413.88913409TF-5.220.7889439.3531494944273.5120077753430.10043252195914161112123DRYL
2023-03-27 16:00:04FORECAST2023182-10326.22219.07622.649167.571341238040.417323060.507323063.433.93732306TF-5.7782.22289439.4548486334173.640038399060.090257929103478161113124.5DRYL
2023-03-27 12:00:07FORECAST2023182-10325.71819.41822.568166.781149158390.326771830.366771833.413.77677183TF-6.2820.71889439.1365159361173.2396927652350.081742508669299161112123DRYL
2023-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2023182-10327.35620.71424.035166.77359156520.346456880.376456883.423.79645688TF-4.6444.35689439.133468237573.2358656744510.11178474279893161112123DRYL
2023-03-27 04:00:14FORECAST2023182-10325.9719.59822.784166.349856488420.291338740.311338743.423.73133874TF-6.030.9789438.9624978781573.0213485258260.08592156160379161112123DRYL
2023-03-27 00:00:05FORECAST2023182-10325.32219.07622.199170.804583005940.232283590.262283593.393.65228359TF-6.678-3.67889440.7507404993575.2822464405510.075486643867321161112123DRYL
2023-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2023182-10325.71818.9522.334170.326775653080.224409570.244409573.373.61440957TF-6.2820.71889440.5599035579175.0391478550510.081742508669299161112123DRYL
2023-03-26 16:00:04FORECAST2023182-10326.07818.66222.37170.63456385510.27559070.29559073.373.6655907TF-5.922-2.92289440.6828611491275.1957278105990.087760586823003161112123DRYL
2023-03-26 12:00:05FORECAST2023182-10327.93219.05823.495170.998853877520.307086780.357086783.373.72708678TF-4.0682.93289440.8282663602675.3811283044170.12402340865689161112123DRYL
2023-03-26 08:00:07FORECAST2023182-10326.88819.63423.261171.056916920360.307086780.367086783.363.72708678TF-5.1122.88889440.8514296116775.4106863693070.10249457262864161112123DRYL
2023-03-26 04:00:09FORECAST2023182-10326.49220.96623.729170.083943579260.165354420.165354423.393.55535442FF-5.508-1.50889440.4628272793274.9156546637390.095081564412458161112123DRYL
2023-03-26 00:00:05FORECAST2023182-10326.29420.28223.288168.778987514670.531496350.531496353.213.74149635TF-5.706-6.70689439.9401220544774.2526483674350.091526153691951161113124.5DRYL
2023-03-25 20:00:07FORECAST2023182-10328.43621.30824.872167.448097534730.358267910.358267913.253.60826791TF-3.5643.43689439.4052413565673.5775717119460.13547424133211161112123DRYL
2023-03-25 16:00:05FORECAST2023182-10326.97821.05624.017168.814076151940.578740470.578740473.243.81874047TF-5.0220.97889439.9541996231574.2704617585460.10423624672791161113124.5DRYL
2023-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2023182-10326.20420.04823.126168.381007691820.440945120.440945123.233.67094512TF-5.796-6.79689439.780364616874.0506609572520.089942915192584161112123DRYL
2023-03-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023182-10329.37222.85626.114167.979645002780.448819140.448819143.23.64881914TF-2.6284.37289439.619085583973.847057932830.15860672238285161112123DRYL
2023-03-25 04:00:14FORECAST2023182-10326.16819.02222.595167.353182670250.291338740.291338743.233.52133874FF-5.832-5.83289439.3670262385473.5294702013830.089315331583777161112123DRYL
2023-03-25 00:00:06FORECAST2023182-10331.17218.5924.881164.96226759550.299212760.299212763.133.42921276FF-0.828-0.82889438.4013381841272.3196788637530.20993282550453161112123DRYL
2023-03-24 20:00:07FORECAST2023182-10333.13420.51626.825158.226098486640.299212760.299212763.133.42921276FF1.1345.13489435.648856738268.9310189118520.27566906977423162112124DRYL
2023-03-24 16:00:05FORECAST2023182-10329.55220.64225.097157.98495494230.145669370.145669373.213.35566937FF-2.448-1.44889435.5494467247368.8102597159490.16333527930973161112123DRYL
2023-03-24 12:00:05FORECAST2023182-10328.41820.78624.602164.285766133620.566929440.566929443.253.81692944TF-3.582-9.58289438.1270338433371.9780354188020.1350532372877161113124.5DRYL
2023-03-24 08:00:04FORECAST2023182-10329.321.21825.259164.466099290230.539370370.539370373.333.86937037TF-2.7-0.789438.2002004880572.0690776824650.15674062272679161113124.5DRYL
2023-03-24 04:00:17FORECAST2023182-10329.4821.52425.502163.940897434610.440945120.440945123.233.67094512TF-2.52-5.5289437.9870167619171.8039845926550.16143300470759161112123DRYL
2023-03-24 00:00:09FORECAST2023182-10328.2220.60624.413162.902498448180.322834820.322834823.263.58283482TF-3.781.2289437.5646842101671.2803802905230.13048121941031161112123DRYL
2023-03-23 20:00:05FORECAST2023182-10328.6721.0224.845157.199638787420.311023790.311023793.483.79102379TF-3.33-2.3389435.2252823853368.4172571821280.14102892726623161112123DRYL
2023-03-23 16:00:05FORECAST2023182-10328.65222.15425.403159.539287804810.673228710.673228713.384.05322871TF-3.348-8.34889436.1891440021769.5893053822940.14059625373981161113124.5WETL
2023-03-23 12:00:04FORECAST2023182-10327.98620.98424.485163.193409234260.586614490.586614493.524.10661449TF-4.014-13.01489437.6831143627671.4269995971290.12521694501489161113124.5WETL
2023-03-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023182-10328.3121.23624.773162.902561858140.59055150.59055153.494.0805515TF-3.69-6.6989437.5647100339871.280412243250.13254600670841161113124.5WETL
2023-03-23 04:00:18FORECAST2023182-10331.122.47826.789164.352096594190.51181130.51181133.864.3718113TF-0.92.189438.1539500245172.0115203175560.20770940429307161113124.5WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023182-10331.31622.76627.041165.047215767790.165354420.335354423.583.91535442TF-0.684-10.68489438.4357492358972.3625997044490.21442131637673161112123DRYL
2023-03-22 20:00:06FORECAST2023182-10331.51423.0927.302164.309816901040.137795350.277795353.563.83779535TF-0.486-8.48689438.1367939078371.9901763846050.2206830458011161112123DRYL
2023-03-22 16:00:06FORECAST2023182-10327.8619.14823.504165.195518322430.129921330.259921333.633.88992133TF-4.14-19.1489438.4958062714172.4375419992190.12244440605688161112123DRYL
2023-03-22 12:00:07FORECAST2023182-10330.16420.53425.349168.290216083120.086614220.146614224.284.42661422TF-1.836-10.83689439.7438963343774.0045953353440.18008780243989161112123WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:06FORECAST2023182-10337.65221.05629.354167.634747812070.094488240.154488244.224.37448824TF5.6521.65289439.4803645977773.6721800877020.45612529892843162112124WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:19FORECAST2023182-10332.57617.99625.286169.892281024090.102362260.122362264.524.64236226TF0.576-14.42489440.3861646008274.8182100354820.25599841137134162112124WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:07FORECAST2023182-10324.58424.58424.584165.719243453790.011811030.051811033.673.72181103TF-7.416-1.41689438.7077146084272.702310562250.064807490764443161111121.5DRYL
2023-03-21 20:00:07FORECAST2023182-10326.04226.04226.042164.419484444750.011811030.051811033.463.51181103FF-5.9586.04289438.1812906396472.0455419003040.087144354792834161111121.5DRYL
2023-03-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023182-10326.3326.3326.33165.33028394210.019685050.109685053.493.59968505FF-5.67-0.6789438.5503617341572.5056558284160.092165180177331161112123DRYL
2023-03-21 12:00:07FORECAST2023182-10335.25835.25835.258169.4050452527900.233.944.17TF3.258-3.74289440.1911081341374.5705945933380.35663017625003162112124WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:06FORECAST2023182-10325.77225.77225.772168.0936856161900.193.633.82TF-6.228-15.22889439.6649270938273.9048980313740.082624911866583161112123DRYL
2023-03-21 04:00:16FORECAST2023182-10331.29831.29831.298165.5485340199100.183.333.51FF-0.702-6.70289438.6386735540572.6159893713120.21385722775199161112123DRYL