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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 20, 2023

[ Sunday, March 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 21, 2023 ]

DAY 171 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/21/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.240
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -52

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.59 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.67 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 154 in
SWE DAY: 78
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 65.78 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -114

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-21 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023171-11432.1828.1199230.14996154.071214166670.590000000000030.810000000000035.866.67TT0.18-51.8278426.92816966834 65.7773414627530.24024874639117 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:01FORECAST2023171-11430.48825.35827.923155.879822992770.259842660.479842665.866.33984266TF-1.512-53.51278427.7117901162466.6716381352420.18737475695937171112123WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:02FORECAST2023171-11429.85825.6127.734154.63442976850.464567180.684567185.866.54456718TT-2.142-54.14278427.1725815686666.055588563610.16967915194861171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:01FORECAST2023171-11429.85825.6127.734154.63442976850.464567180.684567185.866.54456718TT-2.142-54.14278427.1725815686666.055588563610.16967915194861171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 04:00:14FORECAST2023171-11429.85824.69227.275154.854431511660.47244120.69244125.866.5524412TT-2.142-54.14278427.2679581550966.1643367632530.16967915194861171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2023171-11429.89425.14227.518157.970350838770.444882130.564882135.866.42488213TF-2.106-46.10678428.6130843961767.708159316150.17066056750649171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 20:00:02FORECAST2023171-11429.76825.0727.419157.620358755250.43307110.53307115.866.3930711TF-2.232-48.23278428.4625248198967.5344168752930.16724144705411171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 16:00:01FORECAST2023171-11429.04824.38626.717158.241123709320.59055150.69055155.866.5505515TT-2.952-48.95278428.7294736598467.8426336792390.14855524578244171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:04FORECAST2023171-11428.16624.11626.141158.812232206590.653543660.753543665.866.61354366TT-3.834-49.83478428.9746971560368.1264292154930.12763474166019171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:04FORECAST2023171-11428.02224.09826.06158.93925773920.677165720.777165725.866.63716572TT-3.978-49.97878429.0291912439168.1895812047550.12442335206608171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:12FORECAST2023171-11428.23823.64825.943158.669495132190.570866450.730866455.866.59086645TT-3.762-49.76278428.9134418176368.0554792686150.12926179708871171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:06FORECAST2023171-11429.40824.54826.978161.28984809750.480315220.660315225.866.52031522TT-2.592-54.59278430.0344304486369.3601879637570.15771708307212171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 20:00:04FORECAST2023171-11428.50824.72826.618161.579655045960.476378210.696378215.866.55637821TT-3.492-55.49278430.1579524456969.5047735714510.1354906190956171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 16:00:04FORECAST2023171-11429.85824.69227.275161.486719428330.47244120.69244125.866.5524412TT-2.142-55.14278430.1183511763969.4584014973950.16967915194861171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023171-11430.59625.75428.175161.041749225510.476378210.676378215.866.53637821TT-1.404-53.40478429.9286130741469.2364558915590.19051873679041171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:04FORECAST2023171-11430.32624.827.563160.727148767380.362204920.542204925.866.40220492TF-1.674-55.67478429.7943359886669.0796181798250.18271919647329171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:12FORECAST2023171-11430.25424.58427.419160.938331005820.334645850.534645855.866.39464585TF-1.746-53.74678429.884484171969.1848914079230.1806733907511171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:06FORECAST2023171-11429.89425.48427.689163.730680264170.362204920.572204925.395.96220492TF-2.106-57.10678431.0719294988170.5797002596270.17066056750649171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 20:00:06FORECAST2023171-11430.4726.16828.319163.921416063110.374015950.594015955.395.98401595TF-1.53-58.5378431.1527329405570.6751665230960.18685388884667171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2023171-11430.41624.4427.428164.184550175340.3937010.6337015.396.023701TF-1.584-58.58478431.2641430163270.806909327890.18529665603611171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:06FORECAST2023171-11431.08224.90827.995163.948356748720.425197080.615197085.396.00519708TF-0.918-57.91878431.1641429558370.6886527265770.20506240986382171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023171-11430.50624.72827.617163.583267684860.303149770.533149775.395.92314977TF-1.494-58.49478431.0094527103470.5059346774220.18789651964701171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:16FORECAST2023171-11429.76824.24227.005163.692568701490.287401730.457401735.395.84740173TF-2.232-58.23278431.0557791978270.5606277505160.16724144705411171112123WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:06FORECAST2023171-11430.52424.92627.725166.640214910070.346456880.506456885.395.89645688TF-1.476-56.47678432.3002808258372.0386117025020.18841917649073171113124.5WETL
2023-03-16 20:00:12FORECAST2023171-11429.28222.58625.934166.110910069110.267716680.327716685.395.71771668TF-2.718-59.71878432.0774931558271.7727856084910.15446921131373171112123WETL
2023-03-16 16:00:06FORECAST2023171-11431.22624.31427.77165.801734742620.19685050.32685055.395.7168505TF-0.774-53.77478431.9472207123671.6175985113620.20949493640653171112123WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2023171-11430.0224.63827.329166.002755688010.240157610.430157615.395.82015761TF-1.98-53.9878432.0319334444871.7184914970020.17412399772083171112123WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:06FORECAST2023171-11431.06425.48428.274166.216026024280.259842660.429842665.395.81984266TF-0.936-56.93678432.1217609475771.825561863320.20451228257138171112123WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023171-11430.25424.90827.581165.799892323440.299212760.379212765.395.76921276TF-1.746-61.74678431.946444093971.6166739202620.1806733907511171112123WETL
2023-03-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023171-11430.70425.73628.22169.313847190360.192913490.202913495.355.55291349TF-1.296-56.29678433.421062885673.3841876104970.1936948260686171112123WETL
2023-03-15 20:00:05FORECAST2023171-11430.21825.1627.689167.71626426270.181102460.231102465.355.58110246TF-1.782-58.78278432.752274273472.5795947923240.17965588267828171112123WETL
2023-03-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023171-11430.6525.30427.977168.520901199770.358267910.408267915.355.75826791TF-1.35-58.3578433.0894548538272.9846252320820.1921027740288171112123WETL
2023-03-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023171-11430.36225.2527.806169.106789442970.295275750.395275755.355.74527575TF-1.638-58.63878433.3345362732173.2798121839190.18374748877105171112123WETL
2023-03-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023171-11429.0842326.042169.342899341390.307086780.387086785.355.73708678TF-2.916-64.91678433.4331997437773.3988347154280.14945512483388171112123WETL
2023-03-15 04:00:17FORECAST2023171-11427.75221.21824.485168.831307511250.271653690.391653695.315.70165369TF-4.248-63.24878433.2193455549773.1409885492130.11855478614101171112123WETL
2023-03-15 00:00:07FORECAST2023171-11429.82224.76427.293168.842101577250.216535550.506535555.315.81653555TF-2.178-66.17878433.2238605306673.1464270654060.1687013549761171113124.5WETL
2023-03-14 20:00:06FORECAST2023171-11429.62423.64826.636169.192042707560.220472560.550472565.355.90047256TF-2.376-72.37678433.3701679624473.3227839660830.16338820377417171113124.5WETL
2023-03-14 16:00:06FORECAST2023171-11428.29222.80225.547168.35001334040.122047310.402047315.345.74204731TF-3.708-71.70878433.017902458172.8985696554510.13049145675724171112123WETL
2023-03-14 12:00:05FORECAST2023171-11427.24821.79424.521168.60370516790.200787510.360787515.355.71078751TF-4.752-75.75278433.1241145053573.0263305031660.10812770728742171112123WETL
2023-03-14 08:00:07FORECAST2023171-11427.28420.42623.855168.051479120550.122047310.252047315.355.60204731TF-4.716-76.71678432.8928287550272.748280172960.10884993118632171112123WETL
2023-03-14 04:00:17FORECAST2023171-11429.94822.47826.213168.105800885210.200787510.200787515.345.54078751TF-2.052-74.05278432.9155944254572.7756227165880.17213947269371171112123WETL
2023-03-14 00:00:06FORECAST2023171-11429.53422.2825.907176.028482514550.082677210.202677215.595.79267721TF-2.466-71.46678436.2024934201476.7840629858120.16100937399586171112123WETL
2023-03-13 20:00:07FORECAST2023171-11430.45222.3726.411167.684979715140.094488240.214488245.65.81448824TF-1.548-69.54878432.7391506594172.5638557002680.18633391572039171112123WETL
2023-03-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023171-11427.89622.0124.953167.149981862460.055118140.145118145.545.68511814TF-4.104-75.10478432.5145619204172.2948011802460.12165995773986171112123WETL
2023-03-13 12:00:06FORECAST2023171-11432.73823.82828.283171.984036137780.114173290.184173295.545.72417329TF0.738-72.26278434.5328306572874.7327100508130.25931624563462172112124WETL
2023-03-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023171-11432.77423.77428.274172.194860477340.114173290.114173295.715.82417329TF0.774-72.22678434.6202893483874.8393800849650.26057267527379172112124WETL
2023-03-13 04:00:12FORECAST2023171-11426.56419.23822.901170.448251758620.543307380.653307385.86.45330738TT-5.436-89.43678433.8943083268273.9565263023230.095053199116022171113124.5WETL
2023-03-13 00:00:08FORECAST2023171-11428.47221.00224.737178.037029835290.421260070.811260075.786.59126007TT-3.528-79.52878437.0253265252177.8066910973470.13464846221374171113124.5WETL
2023-03-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023171-11428.99420.6624.827171.155450051010.413386050.753386055.816.56338605TT-3.006-71.00678434.1886446364674.3137528797920.14721221445443171113124.5WETL
2023-03-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023171-11434.64622.29828.472171.7581345971100.975.976.94TT2.646-59.35478434.4390653251274.6184434563530.32991425325358172113126WETL
2023-03-12 12:00:08FORECAST2023171-11433.92626.22230.074173.466320959950.255905650.555905656.116.66590565TT1.926-61.07478435.1467521796775.4833061782780.30236142431394172113126WETL
2023-03-12 08:00:07FORECAST2023171-11431.24422.44226.843174.168317192650.208661530.538661536.086.61866153TT-0.756-72.75678435.4366941131575.8392762576160.21005293035217171113124.5WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:12FORECAST2023171-11430.95625.98828.472177.078121923290.637795620.857795626.47.25779562TT-1.044-69.04478436.6330184082377.3181548694260.20122996818871171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 23:00:05FORECAST2023171-11427.8620.9324.395180.187188093420.440945120.720945126.327.04094512TT-4.14-88.1478437.9015329491378.9042458839030.12087837497293171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 19:00:05FORECAST2023171-11427.8620.9324.395180.300905093540.444882130.754882136.327.07488213TT-4.14-85.1478437.9477404215778.9623739816780.12087837497293171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 15:00:06FORECAST2023171-11431.44221.43426.438177.388739566140.216535550.536535556.196.72653555TT-0.558-87.55878436.7602028483777.4763418759240.21624815366457171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 11:00:05FORECAST2023171-11427.91417.0622.487176.733289128540.070866180.420866186.36.72086618TT-4.086-99.08678436.491706765977.1426150140680.12205207399335171112123WETL
2023-03-11 07:00:17FORECAST2023171-11428.36419.3123.837176.313711254920.070866180.470866186.196.66086618TT-3.636-93.63678436.3195977664376.9291275754530.1321435146992171112123WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:13FORECAST2023171-11430.43418.42824.431178.745782380810.232283590.722283596.457.17228359TT-1.566-82.56678437.3146776467878.1681542025870.18581483798463171113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 23:00:07FORECAST2023171-11423.88223.88223.882178.0738032943200.436.727.15TT-8.118-93.11878437.0403522557277.8254377192660.054848162562124171112123WETL
2023-03-10 19:00:09FORECAST2023171-11423.75623.75623.756177.9062754121800.436.637.06TT-8.244-95.24478436.9718885610877.740041153730.053354752832327171112123WETL
2023-03-10 15:00:07FORECAST2023171-11431.20831.20831.208178.7613326005400.386.897.27TT-0.792-87.79278437.3210202496278.1760883540510.2089378137252171112123WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:08FORECAST2023171-11420.1220.1220.12182.7292891385400.546.867.4TT-11.88-99.8878438.9313047522980.205605298040.022423246695645171113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:17FORECAST2023171-11422.44222.44222.442179.3672560115500.376.647.01TT-9.558-89.55878437.5679685189678.4853658317960.039624033029278171112123WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:17FORECAST2023171-11422.38822.38822.388181.8392247750500.576.717.28TT-9.612-95.61278438.5715075761879.7495029460770.039127685117859171113124.5WETL