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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 16, 2022

[ Friday, April 15, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 17, 2022 ]

DAY 198 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/17/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.036
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.22 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.54 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 173 in
SWE DAY: 105
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 77.80 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-17 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022198-8724.8300618.6600221.74504172.625967083330.220000000000030.540000000000037.888.42TT-7.16994-8.16994105450.70330764595 77.8030943500390.03621224365212716 1113124.5WETL
2022-04-17 00:00:01FORECAST2022198-8618.8318.8318.83176.041162735830.00710.32717.888.2071TT-13.17-14.17106452.5281214838879.6635766766840.0072466588278012161112123WETL
2022-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2022198-8624.4516.8120.63176.345153739880.41630.73637.888.6163TT-7.55-8.55106452.6403251879979.8209277341440.033071493185847161113124.5WETL
2022-04-16 08:00:01FORECAST2022198-8624.1317.8821.005176.247784228170.38220.70227.888.5822TT-7.87-8.87106452.6043953315579.7705218091170.030603848709132161113124.5WETL
2022-04-16 04:00:06FORECAST2022198-8623.6616.420.03176.014042603710.36850.68857.888.5685TT-8.34-9.34106452.5181071774179.6495413956750.027256856151521161113124.5WETL
2022-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2022198-8724.8516.9320.89179.120660077750.36960.60967.888.4896TT-7.15-20.15105453.1116218383981.1616527925920.036383527150381161113124.5WETL
2022-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2022198-8724.6917.320.995178.111133576920.36310.76317.888.6431TT-7.31-12.31105452.7398794615780.6380131463780.035027602436981161113124.5WETL
2022-04-15 16:00:01FORECAST2022198-8724.4417.5921.015178.265156909350.39130.79137.888.6713TT-7.56-12.56105452.7966577900380.7178672489710.032991976809799161113124.5WETL
2022-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2022198-8725.2217.5621.39179.112318178740.40010.80017.888.6801TT-6.78-11.78105453.1085539684181.1573234878980.039683494872639161113124.5WETL
2022-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2022198-8723.6417.5820.61179.425603979030.44260.83267.888.7126TT-8.36-13.36105453.2237253430481.3199406573010.027121468822462161113124.5WETL
2022-04-15 04:00:06FORECAST2022198-8722.9117.5920.25179.811557745350.47160.94167.888.8216TT-9.09-13.09105453.3654852633481.5203541331780.022549665490216161113124.5WETL
2022-04-15 00:00:02FORECAST2022198-8722.7717.7120.24183.04844179320.43540.67547.888.5554TT-9.23-19.23105454.5489309592383.2044735308510.021751439033286161113124.5WETL
2022-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2022198-8723.8417.9420.89180.36633737570.36970.84977.888.7297TT-8.16-9.16105453.5690112351781.8085813036070.028500826202976161113124.5WETL
2022-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2022198-8722.9517.7520.35181.142653086840.44980.96987.888.8498TT-9.05-11.05105453.853328720582.2121960767230.022782205512414161113124.5WETL
2022-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2022198-8724.2317.9121.07183.062128597130.40121.03127.888.9112TT-7.77-8.77105454.5539143982683.2116071319040.03135810439386161114126WETL
2022-04-14 08:00:02FORECAST2022198-8724.8917.8821.385183.322231900130.33811.05817.888.9381TT-7.11-16.11105454.6485864891383.3471936054270.036729118182659161114126WETL
2022-04-14 04:00:06FORECAST2022198-8725.3118.2521.78183.674290864220.37511.09517.888.9751TT-6.69-9.69105454.776628909383.5307748165360.040521835912618161114126WETL
2022-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2022198-8724.2318.3221.275187.224219856680.47951.17957.698.8695TT-7.77-20.77105456.0613457983185.3857296738740.03135810439386161114126WETL
2022-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2022198-8725.1319.0722.1186.308678971760.45421.19427.959.1442TT-6.87-12.87105455.7311199003484.9066629149520.038859268697454161114126WETL
2022-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2022198-8724.4718.6321.55185.293319258760.42081.02087.958.9708TT-7.53-12.53105455.363991203584.3759054010120.033230998309416161114126WETL
2022-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2022198-8726.0319.622.815186.089120642610.3630.9337.958.883TT-5.97-9.97105455.6518133097284.7918452580180.047755955935844161113124.5WETL
2022-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2022198-8726.7419.5823.16186.14621833660.47280.99287.878.8628TT-5.26-7.26105455.6724418041584.8217018420490.055864085501995161114126WETL
2022-04-13 04:00:05FORECAST2022198-8726.6518.9422.795186.534824805820.45691.01697.98.9169TT-5.35-6.35105455.8127597366385.0249532817320.054780030928853161114126WETL
2022-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2022198-8726.6717.4922.08179.563659988920.34920.88927.58.3892TT-5.33-27.33105453.2744489592781.3916190345880.055019488268084161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 20:00:02FORECAST2022198-8727.2718.8823.075177.627901609380.37850.86857.818.6785TT-4.73-9.73105452.5615992054780.3875672158520.062593752897333161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2022198-8727.3118.1422.725177.352350628150.3740.8147.838.644TT-4.69-5.69105452.4598413265580.2448164241040.063126169282386161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2022198-8729.220.124.65180.625096250680.61131.05137.838.8813TT-2.8-5.8105453.6638412560281.9430749923220.092500305900555161114126WETL
2022-04-12 08:00:04FORECAST2022198-8730.2321.5225.875181.399415774920.5411.0517.969.011TT-1.77-12.77105453.9472420518582.3457645008420.11224547070113161114126WETL
2022-04-12 04:00:06FORECAST2022198-8724.6321.4623.045180.873738078460.5410.9617.858.811TT-7.37-19.37105453.7549048784182.0723458167940.034529911651538161113124.5WETL
2022-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2022198-8731.8420.2826.06179.479436306211.14131.62136.568.1813TT-0.16-10.16105453.2435061724581.3478889972830.14882013050645161115127.5WETL
2022-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2022198-8730.9318.6924.81181.053330359831.18841.72846.968.6884TT-1.07-5.07105453.8206437434782.1657389357970.1272742522694161115127.5WETL
2022-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2022198-8731.0318.6724.85180.739915133471.18841.78846.858.6384TT-0.97-4.97105453.7059001505982.0027658887750.12953012030185161115127.5WETL
2022-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2022198-8728.5820.7324.655181.331569377570.77151.53156.928.4515TT-3.42-10.42105453.9224325571282.3104670712660.08192179197243161115127.5WETL
2022-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2022198-8730.9121.9726.44181.037043524660.79851.43857.18.5385TT-1.09-11.09105453.8146832644982.1572685662820.1268263684564161114126WETL
2022-04-11 04:00:07FORECAST2022198-8730.912226.455182.94863555630.79851.52857.248.7685TT-1.09-5.09105454.512585732483.1524574029060.1268263684564161115127.5WETL
2022-04-11 00:00:04FORECAST2022198-8731.5319.2625.395167.679129864530.28491.03496.17.1349TT-0.47-16.47105448.8421177245475.2614557466030.14122274673747161114126WETL
2022-04-10 20:00:04FORECAST2022198-8731.3117.9424.625167.108794660850.261.016.397.4TT-0.69-7.69105448.6260283308174.9693548478450.13599289175151161114126WETL
2022-04-10 16:00:04FORECAST2022198-8731.318.3824.84167.835540666910.2491.0096.447.449TT-0.7-9.7105448.9013241908375.341596451660.13575835425601161114126WETL
2022-04-10 12:00:04FORECAST2022198-8729.3218.3123.815170.613341653810.06071.25076.367.6107TT-2.68-15.68105449.9489014129976.7672856435320.094659205223133161114126WETL
2022-04-10 08:00:04FORECAST2022198-8729.6318.4324.03171.679987780830.03911.19916.437.6291TT-2.37-23.37105450.3492000317777.3159451585620.10040725428075161114126WETL
2022-04-10 04:00:07FORECAST2022198-8729.6918.2423.965172.227156567550.03911.19916.597.7891TT-2.31-9.31105450.5541249837277.5976558257280.1015485016374161114126WETL
2022-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2022198-8730.4421.8926.165175.885360170320.30721.60726.147.7472TT-1.56-9.56105451.9168977231379.4855663230860.11661494343976161115127.5WETL
2022-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2022198-8730.6621.2425.95174.584351609850.3041.7246.438.154TT-1.343.66105451.4336895923178.8132579923180.12132002026331161115127.5WETL
2022-04-09 16:00:04FORECAST2022198-8728.8421.2425.04174.891383005930.2891.7196.478.189TT-3.162.84105451.5478682444978.9718311706570.08624168175659161115127.5WETL
2022-04-09 12:00:04FORECAST2022198-8728.8825.227.04174.471564919720.31211.42216.337.7521TT-3.121.88105451.3917241775878.7550205090730.086921079847012161114126WETL
2022-04-09 08:00:04FORECAST2022198-8729.427.4128.405173.445863973980.25981.36986.197.5598TT-2.6-12.6105451.0095313943178.2257378331860.096118893630105161114126WETL
2022-04-09 04:00:07FORECAST2022198-8732.1731.4331.8170.520408440850.13911.02916.557.5791TT0.179.17105449.9139733805476.7195145040970.15720175025397161114126WETL