Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 30, 2022

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DAY 91 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/31/2022 07:00:15 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.93°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.48°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.20°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.466 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -5 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.89 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.70 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.69 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.39 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 86 in SWE DAY: 2 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.29 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 27.91 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 171 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-12-31 07:00:15	OBSERVATION	2023	91	171	31.92998	26.47994	29.20496	85.533892608696	0.88999999999999	1.7	9.69	11.39	T	T	-0.07002	-5.07002	2	326.28554802327	27.908473024392	0.46609918087157	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-31 03:00:08	OBSERVATION	2023	91	171	31.92998	26.47994	29.20496	85.533892608696	0.88999999999999	1.7	9.69	11.39	T	T	-0.07002	-5.07002	2	326.28554802327	27.908473024392	0.46609918087157	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-30 11:00:01	FORECAST	2023	91	171	29.87	22.21	26.04	80.822300062242	0.4077	1.2177	9.69	10.9077	T	T	-2.13	-7.13	2	323.01548889104	26.106854767904	0.43768609996641	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-12-30 07:00:23	FORECAST	2023	91	171	31.26	23.59	27.425	80.398335811378	0.4527	1.2627	9.69	10.9527	T	T	-0.74	-5.74	2	322.71931478648	25.946095843021	0.45683208471379	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-12-30 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	91	171	31.63	22.24	26.935	80.892786626057	0.5783	1.3883	9.69	11.0783	T	T	-0.37	-5.37	2	323.06469867392	26.133603736241	0.46194731144357	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-12-29 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	91	171	32.46	22.51	27.485	82.885519148081	0.957	1.657	9.69	11.347	T	T	0.46	1.46	2	324.45227411443	26.89239517875	0.47344366062447	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-29 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.11	23.75	28.43	81.688875658839	0.8885	1.5885	9.69	11.2785	T	T	1.11	2.11	2	323.6198723436	26.436143512606	0.48246278344091	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-29 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.12	23.44	28.28	81.211547140296	0.9773	1.6773	9.69	11.3673	T	T	1.12	2.12	2	323.28712948666	26.254647956157	0.48260162118507	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-29 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	91	171	40.17	23.05	31.61	81.841583475461	1.0176	1.7176	9.69	11.4076	T	T	8.17	9.17	2	323.72623890102	26.494268004215	0.58002628251711	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-29 07:00:18	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.5	23.71	28.605	81.957996470187	0.998	1.758	9.69	11.448	T	T	1.5	-2.5	2	323.80729708348	26.538597311389	0.48787886514835	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-29 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	91	171	35.01	23.97	29.49	81.465373286658	1.0144	1.8444	9.69	11.5344	T	T	3.01	2.01	2	323.46412039961	26.351125313195	0.50886088890657	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-28 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	91	171	36.89	22.59	29.74	100.37068055448	1.0127	1.6627	9.69	11.3527	T	T	4.89	13.89	2	336.33098630094	33.757769986584	0.53494336083198	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-28 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	91	171	38.76	22.22	30.49	101.17598962198	1.2005	1.8005	9.69	11.4905	T	T	6.76	21.76	2	336.86547497251	34.082697799823	0.56073916053175	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-28 15:00:08	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.71	21.32	27.515	102.73543921884	1.4207	2.1807	9.69	11.8707	T	T	1.71	8.71	2	337.89738818762	34.714036586352	0.49079620681151	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-28 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.57	21.1	27.335	104.25897323233	1.5624	2.3224	9.69	12.0124	T	T	1.57	9.57	2	338.90159587448	35.33353241267	0.48885124802259	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-28 07:00:26	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.99	20.98	27.485	103.57710158037	1.496	2.276	9.69	11.966	T	T	1.99	11.99	2	338.45263387496	35.055942839011	0.49468673473181	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-28 03:00:20	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.98	22.04	28.01	103.33920123237	1.4989	2.4289	9.69	12.1189	T	T	1.98	16.98	2	338.29581104685	34.959218893838	0.49454777640264	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-27 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	91	171	34.85	22.89	28.87	76.743988738316	1.5329	2.8529	10.61	13.4629	T	T	2.85	4.85	2	320.15318519149	24.569832438872	0.50663777561333	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-27 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	91	171	32.07	21.55	26.81	76.849424140945	1.55	2.89	10.61	13.5	T	T	0.07	4.07	2	320.22755747439	24.609303385968	0.46803841742282	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-27 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.56	23.82	28.69	72.054727599174	1.2143	2.5143	10.61	13.1243	T	T	1.56	3.56	2	316.82523996053	22.828756361899	0.48871233199114	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-27 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	91	171	32.63	22.75	27.69	81.796298516303	1.0404	2.3104	10.61	12.9204	T	T	0.63	2.63	2	323.69470058039	26.477028356819	0.47580138232049	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-27 07:00:25	FORECAST	2023	91	171	34.36	23.6	28.98	81.106327573578	0.8034	2.0434	11.09	13.1334	T	T	2.36	7.36	2	323.21372727443	26.214678440597	0.49982850390259	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-27 03:00:23	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.84	22.05	27.945	87.83832087932	1.3722	2.5922	11.51	14.1022	T	T	1.84	-4.16	2	327.87073095872	28.79961447289	0.49260243692934	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-26 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	91	171	39.86	22.82	31.34	93.285398541366	1.6424	2.8024	10.68	13.4824	T	T	7.86	16.86	2	331.58101562235	30.931667191082	0.57580062175822	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-26 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	91	171	41.67	23.58	32.625	89.432192347019	1.4281	2.9681	10.39	13.3581	T	T	9.67	17.67	2	328.96171662348	29.419767515877	0.60033455118089	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-26 15:00:08	FORECAST	2023	91	171	34.74	22.91	28.825	91.014914650486	1.3829	2.8329	10.24	13.0729	T	T	2.74	11.74	2	330.04070906682	30.038626966903	0.50510926145149	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-26 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	91	171	34.19	22.58	28.385	89.28675766043	1.4132	2.7532	10.14	12.8932	T	T	2.19	16.19	2	328.86235136606	29.363053070061	0.4974660142799	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-26 07:00:17	FORECAST	2023	91	171	32.9	24.78	28.84	90.461817357013	1.1725	2.4025	10.62	13.0225	T	T	0.9	-4.1	2	329.66413790046	29.822017031908	0.47954770796832	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-26 03:00:32	FORECAST	2023	91	171	38.59	24.79	31.69	88.458580291268	1.1256	2.3256	10.69	13.0156	T	T	6.59	19.59	2	328.29581603565	29.040581802077	0.55840304419878	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-25 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	91	171	38.66	25.58	32.12	96.509895537279	0.7094	2.1094	11.15	13.2594	T	T	6.66	18.66	2	333.75331935722	32.210497986385	0.55936522526519	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-25 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	91	171	37.33	21.13	29.23	100.80513499255	1.2523	2.5623	11.32	13.8823	T	T	5.33	17.33	2	336.6194722374	33.932971340012	0.54103028281898	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-25 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	91	171	37.4	21.18	29.29	102.07764131635	1.2685	2.5385	11.33	13.8685	T	T	5.4	14.4	2	337.46261097579	34.447387360866	0.54199780779186	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-25 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	91	171	42.69	26.91	34.8	99.692445046232	1.3458	2.9658	11.1	14.0658	T	T	10.69	31.69	2	335.87998824311	33.484697270056	0.61399429208749	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-25 07:00:28	FORECAST	2023	91	171	42.69	26.83	34.76	99.347594490724	1.3458	2.8958	11.11	14.0058	T	T	10.69	31.69	2	335.6503790217	33.346057745706	0.61399429208749	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-25 03:00:09	FORECAST	2023	91	171	37.19	25.75	31.47	102.10252959415	1.3499	3.2999	10.98	14.2799	T	T	5.19	33.19	2	337.47907432415	34.457467173587	0.53909450928698	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-24 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	91	171	39.85	26.88	33.365	101.34988644918	0.7284	2.4884	10.87	13.3584	T	T	7.85	28.85	2	336.98074792497	34.152960537754	0.57566416220676	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-24 19:00:10	FORECAST	2023	91	171	38.17	27.29	32.73	99.429279797382	0.7674	2.4074	10.05	12.4574	T	T	6.17	29.17	2	335.70478510681	33.378885007705	0.55262291440171	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-24 15:00:08	FORECAST	2023	91	171	39.74	27.18	33.46	105.75639545549	0.7674	2.9874	10.51	13.4974	T	T	7.74	30.74	2	339.88481299331	35.944992692237	0.57416251206649	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-24 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	91	171	38.26	25.95	32.105	102.80276679101	0.6378	2.9178	10.68	13.5978	T	T	6.26	30.26	2	337.94184796124	34.741356984881	0.55386249771636	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-24 07:00:26	FORECAST	2023	91	171	38.3	25.95	32.125	103.40425963002	0.6378	2.5078	10.67	13.1778	T	T	6.3	30.3	2	338.33870666123	34.985663466484	0.55441325545607	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-24 03:00:26	FORECAST	2023	91	171	36.71	25.54	31.125	104.80174102706	0.7843	2.6543	10.85	13.5043	T	T	4.71	28.71	2	339.25841287993	35.554872327893	0.53245081594694	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-23 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	91	171	37.03	26.26	31.645	106.45645400628	1.3047	3.6147	9.93	13.5447	T	T	5.03	37.03	2	340.34319471136	36.231729654138	0.53688106448139	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-23 19:00:12	FORECAST	2023	91	171	40.18	28.11	34.145	101.2419305196	0.8993	2.9893	10.12	13.1093	T	T	8.18	50.18	2	336.90919195259	34.109337003078	0.58016244344291	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-23 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	91	171	40.26	28.13	34.195	101.57254951848	0.7268	2.8168	10.25	13.0668	T	T	8.26	41.26	2	337.12827279068	34.242978182111	0.58125138413538	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-23 11:00:12	FORECAST	2023	91	171	39.74	28.95	34.345	100.57350074995	0.6194	2.4994	10.44	12.9394	T	T	7.74	34.74	2	336.46570235294	33.839533567926	0.57416251206649	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-12-23 07:00:32	FORECAST	2023	91	171	32.26	27.63	29.945	103.80452381816	0.4998	2.3798	9.75	12.1298	T	T	0.26	42.26	2	338.6024610123	35.148467229039	0.47067106713023	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-12-23 03:00:14	FORECAST	2023	91	171	33.58	33.06	33.32	106.96524096591	0.1856	2.4756	9.89	12.3656	T	T	1.58	44.58	2	340.67582525419	36.440471739574	0.48899016540654	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L