Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 31, 2022

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DAY 182 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/01/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.57°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.82°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.19°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.136 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 6 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.30 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.50 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.05 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 133 in SWE DAY: 89 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 425.00 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 56.61 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -103 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-01 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	182	-103	28.56992	21.81992	25.19492	133.20511416667	0.29999999999995	0.54999999999995	4.5	5.05	T	F	-3.43008	5.56992	89	425.00253999636	56.612511861338	0.13602624539333	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-04-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-102	24.81	24.81	24.81	131.00889909276	0.0019	0.2519	4.5	4.7519	T	F	-7.19	1.81	90	424.69478795441	55.63879662034	0.066372192164122	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-31 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	182	-102	29.81	26.05	27.93	131.03733729158	0.0124	0.2624	4.5	4.7624	T	F	-2.19	6.81	90	424.70729863897	55.65251354195	0.16729774505552	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-102	27.34	21.92	24.63	131.09502031506	0.0242	0.2742	4.5	4.7742	T	F	-4.66	4.34	90	424.73267208793	55.680338275837	0.10920628254147	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-31 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	182	-102	31.54	22.61	27.075	131.47798105724	0.0426	0.2926	4.5	4.7926	T	F	-0.46	8.54	90	424.90103356292	55.865130041986	0.21804971478642	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-31 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	31.61	22.12	26.865	134.29168781435	0.0579	0.0579	4.5	4.5579	T	F	-0.39	1.61	89	425.47906131143	57.138301273179	0.22027407127775	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2022-03-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	31.47	21.24	26.355	133.29600952254	0.0614	0.1814	4.5	4.6814	T	F	-0.53	9.47	89	425.04245295218	56.656462856199	0.21583833844932	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-30 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	30.68	22.86	26.77	133.25295298921	0.0531	0.1731	4.5	4.6731	T	F	-1.32	8.68	89	425.02354759571	56.635642807078	0.19179473557721	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	30.95	23.41	27.18	133.89762723795	0.0557	0.1757	4.5	4.6757	T	F	-1.05	8.95	89	425.3063964065	56.947517327954	0.19982181786182	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	33.23	23.41	28.32	134.1063550452	0.0584	0.2584	4.5	4.7584	T	F	1.23	12.23	89	425.39787586903	57.048558576767	0.27523801005147	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-30 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	33.68	23.27	28.475	134.07383480232	0.0615	0.3015	4.5	4.8015	T	F	1.68	11.68	89	425.38362636064	57.032814048288	0.29162044183844	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	33.55	23.01	28.28	135.34547403133	0.0607	0.3107	4.5	4.8107	T	F	1.55	-0.45	89	425.93994904042	57.649044311756	0.28684133540927	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	33.49	23.41	28.45	136.2277950746	0.0614	0.3114	4.5	4.8114	T	F	1.49	15.49	89	426.32489641517	58.077300624047	0.28464817002125	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.06	24.16	29.11	136.29578875245	0.06	0.32	4.5	4.82	T	F	2.06	15.06	89	426.35452555326	58.11032634846	0.30579843579687	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.39	24.23	29.31	135.76310176263	0.0557	0.3257	4.5	4.8257	T	F	2.39	16.39	89	426.12226315258	57.851680175704	0.31835244926558	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-29 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.49	24.07	29.28	135.46543768347	0.0428	0.2628	4.5	4.7628	T	F	2.49	16.49	89	425.99233860583	57.707238599044	0.3221991162811	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.93	24.2	29.565	135.1731653414	0.0473	0.2473	4.5	4.7473	T	F	2.93	17.93	89	425.86467183236	57.565475698656	0.33934683711337	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.5	24.23	29.365	137.24338834065	0.0483	0.2283	4.5	4.7283	T	F	2.5	9.5	89	426.76692236381	58.57093845692	0.32258484057015	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	35.07	23.95	29.51	137.26047595336	0.0342	0.2342	4.54	4.7742	T	F	3.07	21.07	89	426.77434981224	58.579250379913	0.34487558069416	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.97	24.08	29.525	137.38781240453	0.0442	0.2542	4.54	4.7942	T	F	2.97	20.97	89	426.8296888163	58.641197215778	0.34092301852097	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	31.19	22.17	26.68	137.0139779539	0.0543	0.2543	4.54	4.7943	T	F	-0.81	17.19	89	426.66717365269	58.459366724503	0.20712357689757	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	32.03	24.23	28.13	136.99210885695	0.0595	0.2595	4.55	4.8095	T	F	0.030000000000001	13.03	89	426.65766183202	58.448732854344	0.23388986046663	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-28 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.8	24.82	29.81	136.86111896338	0.0664	0.2664	4.54	4.8064	T	F	2.8	16.8	89	426.60067757305	58.385046083183	0.33424373695653	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.56	23.96	29.26	138.06381115655	0.069	0.319	4.53	4.849	T	F	2.56	2.56	89	427.12317080934	58.970252795207	0.32490318273652	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.22	24.1	29.16	139.49649051169	0.0926	0.4426	4.59	5.0326	T	F	2.22	18.22	89	427.74349926673	59.668716986898	0.31185798356539	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	30.88	23.96	27.42	139.72451639601	0.0833	0.4833	4.59	5.0733	T	F	-1.12	13.88	89	427.84202295206	59.780019750865	0.19772159803316	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.97	24.04	29.505	138.78628656106	0.0783	0.4583	4.63	5.0883	T	F	2.97	18.97	89	427.43627386494	59.32229319121	0.34092301852097	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	31.35	24.39	27.87	138.76968486382	0.0734	0.4234	4.66	5.0834	T	F	-0.65	7.35	89	427.42908554597	59.314199502846	0.2120777448986	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-27 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	35.81	24.91	30.36	139.42342384701	0.0598	0.4198	4.78	5.1998	T	F	3.81	9.81	89	427.71191710549	59.633059903015	0.37462650677953	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.98	23.43	29.205	139.49610529248	0.051	0.371	4.76	5.131	T	F	2.98	5.98	89	427.74333277587	59.668528987061	0.34131749917252	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.7	23.26	28.98	140.92216654403	0.0618	0.4118	4.85	5.2618	T	F	2.7	9.7	89	428.35855859683	60.365216135141	0.33033894317593	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	34.8	24.89	29.845	140.24367857654	0.0638	0.2938	4.74	5.0338	T	F	2.8	8.8	89	428.06612584275	60.033568162197	0.33424373695653	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	35.38	24.91	30.145	139.91859912794	0.0739	0.3339	4.68	5.0139	T	F	3.38	9.38	89	427.92583579635	59.874783475277	0.35723477983143	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	35.27	23.15	29.21	140.98735188246	0.1389	0.4189	4.79	5.2089	T	F	3.27	3.27	89	428.38662737832	60.397096175928	0.35283129443152	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-26 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	35.37	23.18	29.275	140.50753133981	0.1389	0.3789	4.88	5.2589	T	F	3.37	14.37	89	428.17990799885	60.162501842226	0.35683366624399	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	37.88	25.88	31.88	140.7724188331	0.0085	0.1885	4.88	5.0685	T	F	5.88	6.88	89	428.29405968662	60.291990753936	0.46134286328739	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-03-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	39.5	25.41	32.455	140.86021678648	0.0085	0.2285	4.81	5.0385	T	F	7.5	19.5	89	428.33187874779	60.334921296972	0.53074235324728	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-03-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	39.63	22.97	31.3	141.06638080692	0.0085	0.2285	4.86	5.0885	T	F	7.63	19.63	89	428.42065097054	60.435750695358	0.53629902325149	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-03-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	41.35	28.16	34.755	139.64587672698	0.0118	0.1218	4.87	4.9918	T	F	9.35	23.35	89	427.80805136966	59.741630404379	0.60874668879748	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-03-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	42.53	28.19	35.36	139.4579099489	0.0118	0.1218	4.84	4.9618	T	F	10.53	15.53	89	427.72682402646	59.649888907811	0.65650117037938	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-03-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	42.38	28.14	35.26	138.67471020204	0.0109	0.1209	4.86	4.9809	T	F	10.38	23.38	89	427.38795692502	59.26790107042	0.65054933698815	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-03-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	39.04	28.59	33.815	0.70387033058966	0.0478	0.1778	5.09	5.2678	T	F	7.04	15.04	89	355.8239673359	0.25045393352044	0.51103951346755	16	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	M
2022-03-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	39.45	28.33	33.89	0.63337101718671	0.047	0.177	5.13	5.307	T	F	7.45	21.45	89	355.78061532153	0.22534113022151	0.52860351738427	16	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	M
2022-03-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	42.21	28.57	35.39	0.7320406436302	0.04	0.19	5.39	5.58	T	F	10.21	15.21	89	355.84128788458	0.26049028541323	0.64375899446972	16	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	M
2022-03-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	31.9	28.03	29.965	2.7363174852339	0.0746	0.4146	5.39	5.8046	T	F	-0.1	3.9	89	357.07044428075	0.97705810014563	0.22962641615704	16	1	1	1	2	4	2	12	WET	L
2022-03-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	32.03	28.05	30.04	2.1065574992589	0.0714	0.4114	5.32	5.7314	T	F	0.030000000000001	9.03	89	356.68490737561	0.75137726650455	0.23388986046663	16	1	1	1	2	4	2	12	WET	L
2022-03-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	182	-103	28.61	28.27	28.44	NAN	0.0512	0.3912	5.36	5.7512	T	F	-3.39	5.61	89	NAN	NAN	0.13696999064	16	1	1	1	2	5	2	15	WET	L