Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 9, 2022

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DAY 132 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/10/2022 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.98°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.926 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 144 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.34 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.39 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 107 in SWE DAY: 40 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 375.08 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 40.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -152 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-10 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2022	132	-152	48.09992	29.87006	38.98499	106.6434875	0	0.05	2.34	2.39	F	F	16.09992	144.09992	40	375.07978539483	39.999816405256	0.9264473623765	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-10 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	132	-152	48.09992	29.87006	38.98499	106.6434875	0	0.05	2.34	2.39	F	F	16.09992	144.09992	40	375.07978539483	39.999816405256	0.9264473623765	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-09 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.67	38.59	42.63	106.21340133333	0.0038	0.0538	2.34	2.3938	F	F	14.67	142.67	40	374.83623938636	39.81263192822	0.9029073698658	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-09 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.36	35.31	40.835	106.22054258333	0.0162	0.0662	2.34	2.4062	F	F	14.36	142.36	40	374.84028545302	39.815738502912	0.89714649540294	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-09 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.52	31.07	38.795	106.23977352192	0.0418	0.0918	2.34	2.4318	F	F	14.52	142.52	40	374.85118089201	39.824104562391	0.90015002767792	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-08 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.75	34.67	40.21	106.98210666667	0.055	0.105	2.34	2.445	F	F	13.75	145.75	40	375.27134903806	40.147319491733	0.88509597247956	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-08 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.7	35.1	40.4	106.98560533333	0.0336	0.0836	2.34	2.4236	F	F	13.7	145.7	40	375.273327444	40.148844102051	0.88406558550829	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-08 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.17	35.44	40.805	107.01326666667	0.0365	0.0865	2.34	2.4265	F	F	14.17	146.17	40	375.28896859705	40.160898473534	0.89349547116002	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-08 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.97	35.4	40.685	106.66504	0.0383	0.0883	2.34	2.4283	F	F	13.97	145.97	40	375.09198298595	40.009201368876	0.88955250548458	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-08 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.68	35.37	40.525	107.07228110739	0.0675	0.1275	2.34	2.4675	F	F	13.68	144.68	40	375.32233475066	40.186618532305	0.88365160506495	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-08 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.65	36.05	41.35	107.08685475	0.0444	0.1144	2.34	2.4544	F	F	14.65	145.65	40	375.33057376723	40.192970636245	0.90254297676189	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-07 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.76	36.18	41.47	107.552864	0.0557	0.0857	2.34	2.4257	F	F	14.76	135.76	40	375.59386521718	40.396195904938	0.90453480843469	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-07 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.65	36.21	41.43	107.41876666667	0.0761	0.0961	2.34	2.4361	F	F	14.65	137.65	40	375.51813324444	40.337694734087	0.90254297676189	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-07 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.11	37.12	41.615	107.374432	0.0349	0.0749	2.34	2.4149	F	F	14.11	137.11	40	375.4930894005	40.318357194304	0.89232336832863	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-07 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.42	37.29	41.355	107.31759762009	0.0095	0.0495	2.34	2.3895	F	F	13.42	136.42	40	375.46098057147	40.293570435012	0.87817454552325	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-07 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.19	36.81	41.5	107.69024903129	0.0104	0.0804	2.34	2.4204	F	F	14.19	135.19	40	375.67142718308	40.456149547284	0.89388412424584	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-07 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.37	37.48	41.925	107.60156423969	0.01	0.1	2.34	2.44	F	F	14.37	136.37	40	375.62136247606	40.417446164268	0.89733611206284	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-06 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.82	37.43	42.125	109.18247568102	0.0012	0.0712	2.34	2.4112	F	F	14.82	142.82	40	376.51213603852	41.108527136636	0.90560859362649	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-06 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	47.16	36.51	41.835	109.15380455226	0.009	0.069	2.34	2.409	F	F	15.16	142.16	40	376.49601295396	41.095972212684	0.91152612745748	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-06 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	49.11	36.28	42.695	109.05449811336	0.0006	0.0706	2.34	2.4106	F	F	17.11	144.11	40	376.4401593326	41.052492645729	0.94025796531526	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-06 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	48.91	35.35	42.13	108.20409523328	0.0006	0.0706	2.34	2.4106	F	F	16.91	144.91	40	375.96128390849	40.680550568062	0.9376976666111	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-06 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	44.33	35.58	39.955	108.36804239383	0.0012	0.0512	2.34	2.3912	F	F	12.33	140.33	40	376.05368567261	40.752201751326	0.85326036810809	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-06 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	49.3	35.42	42.36	108.28905030463	0.0012	0.0512	2.34	2.3912	F	F	17.3	142.3	40	376.00916998316	40.717675923309	0.94261343491458	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-05 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	48.39	33.89	41.14	107.05552191884	0	0.07	2.2	2.27	F	F	16.39	147.39	40	375.3128597875	40.179314087402	0.93064165489039	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-05 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	48.08	33.84	40.96	107.29590960753	0	0.1	2.2	2.3	F	F	16.08	144.08	40	375.44872661292	40.284112632922	0.92615239535411	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-05 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	48.08	33.84	40.96	107.17287162461	0	0.05	2.2	2.25	F	F	16.08	148.08	40	375.37919606059	40.230466389952	0.92615239535411	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-05 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	48.7	34.76	41.73	106.69243378931	0.0011	0.0511	2.2	2.2511	F	F	16.7	147.7	40	375.10748547854	40.021130558294	0.93491840244248	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-05 07:00:11	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.27	35.68	40.475	107.2652895582	0.0011	0.0211	2.2	2.2211	F	F	13.27	139.27	40	375.43142480894	40.270760491377	0.87493379104053	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-05 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.27	35.73	40.5	107.02381260887	0.0011	0.0311	2.21	2.2411	F	F	13.27	146.27	40	375.29493153058	40.165494425189	0.87493379104053	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-04 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	49.76	34.98	42.37	105.80356927449	0	0.05	2.14	2.19	F	F	17.76	150.76	40	374.60391503773	39.634431275191	0.94801469633651	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-04 19:00:05	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	48.8	34.72	41.76	106.03699349023	0	0.03	2.14	2.17	F	F	16.8	147.8	40	374.73626749044	39.735907156439	0.93625359220374	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-04 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	48.82	35.21	42.015	106.19798326756	0	0.08	2.14	2.22	F	F	16.82	146.82	40	374.8275036175	39.805924957391	0.93651806375939	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-04 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	43.1	34.39	38.745	108.24375193902	0	0.13	2.15	2.28	F	F	11.1	140.1	40	375.98363823284	40.697879670006	0.82130631419184	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-04 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	43.69	34.39	39.04	108.59927642851	0	0.09	2.23	2.32	F	F	11.69	140.69	40	376.18394539843	40.853304274291	0.83714367431358	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-04 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	46.31	33.88	40.095	108.84828249629	0.0006	0.1006	2.26	2.3606	F	F	14.31	134.31	40	376.3241310148	40.962235322872	0.89619460698387	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-03 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.15	33.72	39.435	107.37847029508	0	0.05	1.8	1.85	F	F	13.15	148.15	40	375.49537067642	40.320118506117	0.87229832388953	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-03 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.2	33.78	39.49	107.72143570496	0	0.05	1.8	1.85	F	F	13.2	138.2	40	375.68903013362	40.469761704596	0.87340107538141	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-03 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.24	33.84	39.54	107.57236833374	0	0.05	1.78	1.83	F	F	13.24	143.24	40	375.60487821431	40.404706307218	0.87427850247714	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-03 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.13	34.01	39.57	107.90632877403	0	0.11	1.8	1.91	F	F	13.13	142.13	40	375.79336221428	40.550482094193	0.87185536483011	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-03 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.24	31.13	38.185	108.7034688053	0	0.1	1.93	2.03	F	F	13.24	137.24	40	376.24261448641	40.898877307047	0.87427850247714	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-03 03:00:09	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	45.25	31.09	38.17	109.06436122991	0	0.1	2.08	2.18	F	F	13.25	142.25	40	376.44570734503	41.056810609327	0.87449719680128	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-02 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	43.08	30.78	36.93	110.23850310364	0.0089	0.0789	2.46	2.5389	F	F	11.08	144.08	40	377.10517113573	41.571509578646	0.82075303191209	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-02 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	43.12	30.78	36.95	110.32099581906	0.0089	0.0989	2.42	2.5189	F	F	11.12	140.12	40	377.1514297603	41.60772130574	0.82185852247348	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-02 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	43.8	31.37	37.585	110.4710525893	0.0089	0.0789	2.45	2.5289	F	F	11.8	143.8	40	377.23555076458	41.673608367067	0.83999249850674	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-02 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	35.69	30.61	33.15	111.91841818962	0.0089	0.0489	2.43	2.4789	F	F	3.69	133.69	40	378.04529204109	42.310231089271	0.55434384068529	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-02 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	33.69	30.57	32.13	108.46978892564	0.0089	0.0489	2.33	2.3789	F	F	1.69	133.69	40	376.11101138119	40.796682017128	0.47016524440551	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2022-02-02 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	132	-152	35.16	34.74	34.95	108.97090345399	0.0064	0.0264	2.26	2.2864	F	F	3.16	132.16	40	376.39313167582	41.015899612593	0.53211868671564	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L