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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 3, 2025

[ Wednesday, July 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, July 4, 2025 ]

DAY 276 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/04/2025 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -524

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 183
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -9

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-04 04:00:04OBSERVATION2025276-90NAN0000FF-32-524183NAN NAN6.6862525516242E-916 1111527.5DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025276-953.97838.94846.46300000FF21.978-470.022183428.2326607511500.329732225766521621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025276-954.4139.16446.78700000FF22.41-469.59183428.2326607511500.345026145964811621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025276-955.59838.37246.98500000FF23.598-468.402183428.2326607511500.388340358328891621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025276-956.10238.15647.129NAN0000FF24.102-467.898183NANNAN0.407181298307861621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025276-956.3938.33647.36300000FF24.39-410.61183428.2326607511500.418047838493421621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:01FORECAST2025276-957.12838.44447.78600000FF25.128-409.872183428.2326607511500.446161012879151621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025276-957.43437.99447.71400000FF25.434-409.566183428.2326607511500.457906009888221621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025276-957.90239.09248.49700000FF25.902-409.098183428.2326607511500.475936766077621621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:01FORECAST2025276-957.14639.52448.33500000FF25.146-408.854183428.2326607511500.446850691551721621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025276-956.85839.88448.371NAN0000FF24.858-409.142183NANNAN0.435836522879511621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:01FORECAST2025276-954.66239.07446.86800000FF22.662-343.338183428.2326607511500.354067893992591621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025276-954.06838.6646.36400000FF22.068-343.932183428.2326607511500.332896134844111621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:01FORECAST2025276-954.12238.85846.4900000FF22.122-343.878183428.2326607511500.334800221472371621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025276-952.95238.96645.95900000FF20.952-345.048183428.2326607511500.294566432737451621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025276-953.09638.04845.57200000FF21.096-344.904183428.2326607511500.299396775666411621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025276-953.70838.24645.977NAN0000FF21.708-344.292183NANNAN0.320314038558511621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:01FORECAST2025276-954.21236.9545.58100000FF22.212-275.788183428.2326607511500.337983131528781621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:01FORECAST2025276-954.62637.47246.04900000FF22.626-274.374183428.2326607511500.352771025616161621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025276-953.81638.69646.25600000FF21.816-273.184183428.2326607511500.324067883969091621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025276-953.9638.26446.11200.0377952960.03779529600.037795296FF21.96-275.04183428.2326607511500.329100893270811621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025276-953.13238.40845.7700.055118140.0551181400.05511814FF21.132-274.868183428.2326607511500.300609945163621621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025276-955.29239.247.246NAN0.0452756150.04527561500.045275615FF23.292-271.708183NANNAN0.377025028829811621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025276-953.97837.95845.96800000FF21.978-207.022183428.2326607511500.329732225766521621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025276-953.13238.24645.68900000FF21.132-207.868183428.2326607511500.300609945163621621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025276-953.85238.40846.1300000FF21.852-208.148183428.2326607511500.325323173123971621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:03FORECAST2025276-957.95639.81248.88400.0003937010.00039370100.000393701FF25.956-203.044183428.2326607511500.47802112023231621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025276-959.14442.33250.73800000FF27.144-199.856183428.2326607511500.523927965172041631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-29 04:00:05FORECAST2025276-956.8764148.938NAN0000FF24.876-200.124183NANNAN0.436523543585881621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025276-954.44640.22647.33600000FF22.446-150.554183428.2326607511500.346312567401941621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025276-957.97442.20650.0900000FF25.974-145.026183428.2326607511500.478716041395551621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025276-957.41643.23250.32400000FF25.416-148.584183428.2326607511500.45721400706871621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025276-958.24443.21450.72900000FF26.244-141.756183428.2326607511500.489146441867131621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025276-958.33444.25851.29600000FF26.334-147.666183428.2326607511500.49262524540951621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025276-957.39843.48450.441NAN0000FF25.398-141.602183NANNAN0.456522133948921621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025276-956.73242.24249.4870000.030.03FF24.732-95.268183428.2326607511500.431032911137841621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 20:00:03FORECAST2025276-955.68841.46848.578000.010.030.04FF23.688-95.312183428.2326607511500.391686992430151621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 16:00:03FORECAST2025276-956.53442.29649.4150000.030.03FF24.534-95.466183428.2326607511500.423505211448551621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025276-960.2643.26851.7640000.030.03FF28.26-94.74183428.2326607511500.566775996676821631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025276-960.18843.57451.8810000.020.02FF28.188-91.812183428.2326607511500.564029715922471631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025276-959.55842.83651.197NAN000.030.03FF27.558-92.442183NANNAN0.539882390339691631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025276-956.91243.7950.3510000.070.07FF24.912-47.088183428.2326607511500.437898157502391621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025276-957.50642.78250.1440000.070.07FF25.506-56.494183428.2326607511500.460675276512251621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025276-959.50440.35249.9280000.040.04FF27.504-49.496183428.2326607511500.537804463268491631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025276-961.4342.7152.070000.060.06FF29.43-46.57183428.2326607511500.610860726794031631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025276-961.8843.53852.7090000.050.05FF29.88-43.12183428.2326607511500.627475798138131631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025276-968.77446.02257.398NAN000.040.04FF36.774-31.226183NANNAN0.839758316812521641115130DRYL
2025-06-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025276-964.99445.33855.1660000.040.04FF32.99417.994183428.2326607511500.734665825638911641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 20:00:03FORECAST2025276-964.99445.48255.2380000.030.03FF32.99414.994183428.2326607511500.734665825638911641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025276-968.39652.35860.377000.050.070.12FF36.39620.396183428.2326607511500.830667381987041641115130DRYL
2025-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025276-962.9645.03253.9960000.080.08FF30.960.96000000000001183428.2326607511500.666346094487551631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025276-962.94244.9653.9510000.060.06FF30.9420.94200000000001183428.2326607511500.665711305950971631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 04:00:05FORECAST2025276-962.4244.81653.618NAN000.040.04FF30.42-1.58183NANNAN0.647102786439891631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025276-960.0845.98653.0330000.060.06FF28.0858.08183428.2326607511500.559904541009851631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025276-960.0845.98653.0330000.060.06FF28.0859.08183428.2326607511500.559904541009851631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025276-962.43845.24853.843000.010.050.06FF30.43859.438183428.2326607511500.647750664356131631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025276-970.0739.43454.7520000.040.04FF38.0765.07183428.2326607511500.868468697864591651115135DRYL
2025-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025276-970.0739.61454.8420000.020.02FF38.0768.07183428.2326607511500.868468697864591651115135DRYL
2025-06-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025276-964.34637.74251.044NAN000.020.02FF32.34659.346183NANNAN0.713683503268021641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025276-945.42837.72441.576000.120.050.17FF13.42889.428183428.2326607511500.102086292710691611125215DRYL
2025-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025276-951.99840.04646.022000.120.050.17FF19.99897.998183428.2326607511500.263510517572381621125220DRYL
2025-06-23 16:00:03FORECAST2025276-952.39439.5645.977000.110.070.18FF20.39499.394183428.2326607511500.276196949718731621125220DRYL
2025-06-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025276-944.83441.2743.05200.0251968640.0251968640.050.075196864FF12.83495.834183428.2326607511500.092184259079254161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025276-944.83441.2743.05200.0251968640.0251968640.030.055196864FF12.83492.834183428.2326607511500.092184259079254161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025276-947.55246.36446.958NAN000.030.03FF15.55297.552183NANNAN0.1437454767084161111527.5DRYL