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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 28, 2025

[ Tuesday, May 27, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 29, 2025 ]

DAY 240 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/29/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.978
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 240

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 93 in
SWE DAY: 147
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.24 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -45

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 16.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-29 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025240-4571.2099451.4999461.3549492.82789833333300.143.13.24FF39.20994240.20994147444.22241094579 41.2362328006640.9777087646945916 51221116DRYL
2025-05-29 00:00:01FORECAST2025240-4563.3244.63653.97891.298231200.143.13.24FF31.32232.32147443.6241575701140.5021009037410.89615444309763165122128DRYL
2025-05-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025240-4563.10444.61853.86194.252081600.143.13.24FF31.104232.104147444.7773238915641.9211886252570.89241672529254165122128DRYL
2025-05-28 08:00:01FORECAST2025240-4564.86844.7854.82494.203176800.143.13.24FF32.868233.868147444.7583020881841.897644964880.92022642978776165122128DRYL
2025-05-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025240-4564.88645.2355.05894.10851080.0185039470.1585039473.13.258503947FF32.886233.886147444.7214744883141.8520756848750.92047919108049165122128DRYL
2025-05-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025240-4565.98446.34656.16591.841183200.143.13.24FF33.984227.984147443.8367724461240.762494329120.93478245211309165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025240-4566.48847.1256.80495.939858400.143.13.24FF34.488228.488147445.4323485850742.7347164500310.94064180907812165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 16:00:01FORECAST2025240-4566.50647.0356.76895.90571360.003937010.143937013.13.24393701FF34.506228.506147445.4191248288842.7182390178010.94084320229916165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025240-4567.89249.04658.46993.49333920.007874020.147874023.13.24787402FF35.892229.892147444.4819404570841.5561008274280.95480970597419165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025240-4567.92849.24458.58693.45210960.011811030.151811033.13.25181103FF35.928230.928147444.4658731881141.5362734946350.95513374453494165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025240-4567.51448.84858.18193.6197873666670.0204724520.1604724523.13.260472452FF35.514230.514147444.5312071031741.6169170868460.95129280801166165122128DRYL
2025-05-27 00:00:01FORECAST2025240-4567.38848.52457.95695.59386480.0074803190.0674803193.13.167480319FF35.388228.388147445.298297497842.5677852466750.95007319562851165121124DRYL
2025-05-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025240-4568.70249.53259.11797.1816080.0007874020.0707874023.13.170787402FF36.702232.702147445.9124806868543.3344919004170.96166048317094165121118DRYL
2025-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025240-4568.93649.53259.23497.1565160.0031496080.0731496083.13.173149608FF36.936231.936147445.9027936542443.3223619061130.96347426829485165121118DRYL
2025-05-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025240-4568.73849.38859.06396.42353440.0019685050.0719685053.13.171968505FF36.738231.738147445.6195457293742.9682115969490.96194420014672165121118DRYL
2025-05-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025240-4568.8149.5559.1896.3619360.0173228440.0973228443.13.197322844FF36.81231.81147445.5957180752642.9384660670420.962506511691911651221116DRYL
2025-05-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025240-4569.09849.17259.13596.0241408833330.0208661530.1208661533.13.220866153FF37.098231.098147445.464984986442.7753924769260.964688483936551651221116DRYL
2025-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025240-4568.61248.93858.77595.75644160.0173228440.1173228443.13.217322844FF36.612223.612147445.3613006095242.6462133727160.960943664441041651221116DRYL
2025-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025240-4567.96448.70458.33499.56001520.0070866180.0970866183.113.207086618FF35.964223.964147446.8278928836844.4861918072830.95545591578979165122128DRYL
2025-05-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025240-4566.30848.5657.43499.86446480.0122047310.0922047313.113.202204731FF34.308221.308147446.9446720852344.6338904730030.93859829782209165122128DRYL
2025-05-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025240-4566.16448.45257.30898.037865600.083.113.19FF34.164221.164147446.242678274343.748679717640.93692439169166165121124DRYL
2025-05-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025240-4565.15648.03856.59798.094248800.13.113.21FF33.156220.156147446.2643960688943.7759706985630.92419847836227165122128DRYL
2025-05-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025240-4565.55248.52457.03898.0250456500.093.123.21FF33.552219.552147446.2377398261243.7424748172090.92941256012527165121124DRYL
2025-05-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025240-4565.64248.4757.05697.378743200.083.123.2FF33.642212.642147445.9885653452243.4298059748890.93055833873347165121124DRYL
2025-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025240-4564.7647.94856.354101.345168800.13.123.22FF32.76206.76147447.5113469894345.3531130005590.91869712901715165122128DRYL
2025-05-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025240-4565.04847.58856.318101.482633600.093.113.2FF33.048206.048147447.5638476144445.4199579600620.92272692831781165121124DRYL
2025-05-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025240-4564.02246.95855.49100.015391200.13.113.21FF32.022204.022147447.0025301807544.7071329234180.90765215804436165122128DRYL
2025-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025240-4563.5947.08455.33799.93194800.123.113.23FF31.59205.59147446.9705447171944.666637232210.90069338438295165122128DRYL
2025-05-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025240-4563.01446.45454.73499.87696595585800.123.113.23FF31.014203.014147446.9494652839744.6399565281560.89083115654305165122128DRYL
2025-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025240-4564.50848.256.35499.8970153248950.0023622060.0723622063.123.192362206FF32.508200.508147446.957152304244.6496854933040.91504319048417165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025240-4565.35448.32656.84101.400974637910.0023622060.0723622063.113.182362206FF33.354202.354147447.5326625932645.3802481692570.92684093494785165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025240-4565.04848.97457.011101.236834229740.0023622060.0623622063.123.182362206FF33.048204.048147447.4699588784745.3004420497660.92272692831781165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025240-4565.37248.6557.011100.2517741974800.073.113.18FF33.372204.372147447.0931037616844.8218768835650.92707763089448165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025240-4566.50650.79258.64999.639523200.073.113.18FF34.506210.506147446.858398863644.5247578006850.94084320229916165121124DRYL
2025-05-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025240-4566.12849.56857.848100.3821951666700.13.113.21FF34.128208.128147447.1430531770544.8852012314380.93650043045749165122128DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025240-4563.08648.75855.922103.081425591200.083.13.18FF31.086202.086147448.1731145220246.1983235565790.89210094217998165121124DRYL
2025-05-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025240-4563.10448.6555.877103.456341600.083.173.25FF31.104204.104147448.315629569746.3810949173810.89241672529254165121124DRYL
2025-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025240-4563.42848.61456.021103.509182400.133.173.3FF31.428205.428147448.3357047832846.4068622428450.89798769587229165122128DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025240-4567.4646.65257.056103.10899624860.1224410110.2524410113.173.422441011FF35.46211.46147448.1835994492946.2117610742990.95077305534003165122128DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025240-4563.46445.46454.464103.96296990470.1578741010.2478741013.083.327874101FF31.464198.464147448.5079963079846.6282233221860.89859353273195165112127DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025240-4563.2345.48254.356104.193466855740.1271654230.1571654233.073.227165423FF31.23197.23147448.5954340891846.7407134934050.89460863232697165112127DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025240-4560.45843.66452.061104.1483847630900.363.183.54FF28.458181.458147448.5783364661146.7187091826590.83867177792549164112126DRYL
2025-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025240-4559.91839.66849.793106.3441059259900.363.153.51FF27.918180.918147449.4088050882747.7919775723810.82585726104295164112126DRYL
2025-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025240-4559.3639.2949.325105.896232213290.0212598540.3812598543.223.601259854TF27.36184.36147449.2397854991947.5728006446730.81195662906068164112126DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025240-4552.48437.72445.104104.904821474640.0877953230.0977953233.263.357795323FF20.484189.484147448.8649600917347.0880985046430.59284739038938163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025240-4553.4236.8645.14103.977799296970.0877953230.0977953233.293.387795323FF21.42191.42147448.5136232992746.6354595053660.62679628305482163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025240-4553.36637.6745.518103.849355930510.0893701270.0993701273.253.349370127FF21.366192.366147448.4648786179446.5727888019270.62486145226792163112125DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025240-4549.33433.63841.486106.354340787660.1086614760.1286614763.183.308661476FF17.334171.334147449.4126652966647.7969877592530.47489365180731162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025240-4547.9337.00442.467106.309972632620.1043307650.1243307653.143.264330765FF15.93174.93147449.3959305566447.7752690786860.42241087541751162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025240-4548.21836.84242.53106.577957404450.1334646390.1534646393.163.313464639FF16.218172.218147449.4969801075547.9064699993330.43309587451391162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025240-4545.84238.13841.99107.905759358620.2307087860.2507087863.333.580708786FF13.842165.842147449.996643589548.5572295353570.34709954262899162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025240-4544.70837.45441.081107.876724146640.2307087860.2507087863.423.670708786TF12.708157.708147449.9857353977848.5429870474290.30839924816209162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025240-4548.93838.22843.583106.897471145540.1905512840.2005512843.53.700551284TF16.938168.938147449.6173699312148.0629598287570.4600063152051162112124DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025240-4541.21633.65637.436112.316076439080.8834650441.2734650443.244.513465044TF9.216142.216147451.644241768850.7269091817760.20308796125282161114126WETL
2025-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025240-4541.10833.6237.364110.474821209830.8665359011.2565359013.34.556535901TF9.108145.108147450.9586325776349.8195743070440.20021374994266161114126WETL
2025-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2025240-4540.87433.99837.436110.434758418520.8263783991.2063783993.314.516378399TF8.874148.874147450.9436791382249.7998562659860.19407056742697161114126WETL
2025-05-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025240-4544.20434.28639.245111.530956779930.8019689371.4619689373.354.811968937TF12.204144.204147451.3522869483650.3397524081620.29182809854614162114128WETL
2025-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025240-4544.20434.28639.245111.563631115240.8019689371.4619689373.534.991968937TF12.204139.204147451.3644488504350.3558568700820.29182809854614162114128WETL
2025-05-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025240-4540.74834.30437.526113.051662003880.9248036491.5848036493.384.964803649TF8.748133.748147451.91724905451.0899960937750.19081069413125161115127.5WETL
2025-05-19 00:00:03FORECAST2025240-4543.55635.31239.434113.239810562570.204724520.624724523.534.15472452TF11.556135.556147451.9869971546851.182921934540.27115285765706162113126WETL
2025-05-18 20:00:03FORECAST2025240-4543.55635.00639.281112.361352606750.204724520.624724523.54.12472452TF11.556133.556147451.6610604282950.7492476695220.27115285765706162113126WETL
2025-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025240-4545.8634.30440.082111.471060406270.1444882670.5744882673.313.884488267TF13.86133.86147451.329989953850.3102325733010.34772826288216162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025240-4541.1839.23640.208113.025863902260.0444882130.0444882133.923.964488213TF9.18158.18147451.9076829028651.0772562641630.20212717033644161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025240-4541.1839.23640.208113.652368967480.0444882130.0544882133.943.994488213TF9.18161.18147452.1398190644951.3867615412050.20212717033644161111121.5DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025240-4534.48433.90834.196112.562167773030.0122047310.0322047313.793.822204731TF2.484162.484147451.7356335801950.8483421761110.071049785051513161111121.5DRYL