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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 22, 2025

[ Wednesday, May 21, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, May 23, 2025 ]

DAY 234 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/23/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.38°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.240
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 206

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.11 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 111 in
SWE DAY: 141
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -51

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-23 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025234-5142.3800634.2100438.29505111.413819166670.110000000000010.390000000000012.823.21FF10.38006206.38006141447.92800280078 49.9053695037330.240460403612816 1122124DRYL
2025-05-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025234-5140.31631.20835.762113.69278319120.0996063530.3796063532.823.199606353FF8.316204.316141448.7936182437551.0245955365820.18811746375658161122124DRYL
2025-05-22 12:00:01FORECAST2025234-5141.82830.97436.401113.84384584860.1484252770.4284252772.823.248425277FF9.828205.828141448.8508192609651.0989034769610.22573404550854161122124DRYL
2025-05-22 08:00:01FORECAST2025234-5139.32630.59634.961113.72779230470.0763779940.3563779942.823.176377994FF7.326203.326141448.8068766631551.0418152540690.16571783971834161122124DRYL
2025-05-22 04:00:02FORECAST2025234-5138.85830.75834.808113.758336570470.0763779940.3563779942.823.176377994FF6.858202.858141448.8184432220251.0568395230850.15575411622599161122124DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:01FORECAST2025234-5138.35430.75834.556113.641524763090.2094489320.4594489322.823.279448932FF6.354195.354141448.7742038647150.9993848015280.14547385563205161112123DRYL
2025-05-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025234-5138.4831.08234.781115.005765925990.1842520680.4342520682.823.254252068FF6.48195.48141449.2900562056851.6709470368670.14800022224081161112123DRYL
2025-05-21 16:00:01FORECAST2025234-5138.331.13634.718115.146914613290.2531497430.5031497432.823.323149743FF6.3195.3141449.3433259461951.740497584780.14440003325426161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025234-5138.3931.74835.069114.681255074640.299212760.549212762.823.36921276FF6.39195.39141449.1675128389451.5110941111230.14619270515015161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025234-5138.40832.03635.222114.414398496970.3251970260.5751970262.823.395197026FF6.408196.408141449.0666654488551.3796924123680.14655302058172161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:03FORECAST2025234-5137.97631.5534.763114.309571130510.2858269260.5358269262.823.355826926FF5.976195.976141449.0270315840851.3280874063820.13806912186816161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025234-5138.13832.19835.168114.855121611920.2303150850.4703150852.823.290315085FF6.138195.138141449.2331817279151.5967317194690.14121059263541161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:01FORECAST2025234-5137.38231.58634.484114.551661432620.2527560420.4327560422.823.252756042FF5.382195.382141449.1185468272451.4472757192630.12695893179759161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:01FORECAST2025234-5137.5831.65834.619114.705376101880.2708662880.4508662882.823.270866288FF5.58195.58141449.1766250139551.5229737083970.13059122794132161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025234-5137.431.74834.574115.020807649510.2169292510.3969292512.823.216929251FF5.4195.4141449.2957338854251.6783581849810.12728621374368161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025234-5137.61631.69434.655114.592840600590.2633859690.4633859692.823.283385969FF5.616193.616141449.1341078224151.4675532259830.13125926670071161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025234-5138.58832.03635.312114.543364570930.1944882940.4744882942.823.294488294FF6.588194.588141449.1154113695851.4431902989290.15018885351476161112123DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025234-5138.7531.76635.258118.040509040440.1921260880.4421260882.713.152126088FF6.75192.75141450.4311747726753.1691251578480.15351194416228161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 20:00:01FORECAST2025234-5139.88431.96435.924116.542574943280.1696851310.4396851312.793.229685131FF7.884193.884141449.869023630652.4288944011320.17812293773299161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025234-5140.78430.95635.87116.63042436560.1830709650.4630709652.793.253070965FF8.784193.784141449.9020512124452.4722671558610.19932628433375161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025234-5140.58630.8335.708117.218298854120.1464567720.4464567722.793.236456772FF8.586192.586141450.1228770175952.7626379193250.19453593799442161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025234-5141.1830.52435.852116.626835064970.1236221140.4036221143.023.423622114FF9.18194.18141449.900701935152.4704949602010.20911711810601161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025234-5138.26430.234.232117.840538432540.1047244660.4147244662.943.354724466FF6.264191.264141450.3562525930553.0702232920280.14368711840003161112123DRYL
2025-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025234-5138.7530.23634.493117.839149327590.0338582860.3538582862.933.283858286FF6.75185.75141450.355732009653.0695363548170.15351194416228161112123DRYL
2025-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025234-5141.05431.26236.158116.576440586410.035433090.295433092.953.24543309FF9.054190.054141449.8817565200752.445613859870.20597161137966161112123DRYL
2025-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025234-5137.4930.75834.124116.195490448530.0622047580.3122047582.863.172204758FF5.49184.49141449.7384627763152.2575812558610.12893139816544161112123DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025234-5139.14631.24435.195117.460700087880.1421260610.4121260612.893.302126061FF7.146190.146141450.2138352598752.8824322788730.16183801789435161112123DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025234-5138.82230.27234.547118.607199504290.1405512570.4405512572.863.300551257FF6.822188.822141450.6432877884753.4495383399970.15500434460853161112123DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025234-5143.2531.76637.508117.922281789780.0862205190.3962205192.863.256220519FF11.25194.25141450.3868836449953.1106490076070.26468879921478162112124DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025234-5142.69231.47837.085118.934405579550.0173228440.30732284433.307322844FF10.692189.692141450.7656225038153.6115413681850.2490069817526162112124DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2025234-5142.49432.1837.337118.638401488660.019685050.279685053.123.39968505FF10.494190.494141450.6549578681753.464983824420.24356353040492161112123DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025234-5142.29632.28837.292118.503852980770.0366141930.3266141933.033.356614193FF10.296192.296141450.6046278026253.3983845655740.2381849033123161112123DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025234-5140.49631.9136.203118.475286550160.0066929170.2566929173.043.296692917FF8.496189.496141450.5939398491853.3842461413960.19238181909608161112123DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025234-5141.1832.16236.671118.87461570740.0066929170.2366929173.123.356692917FF9.18192.18141450.7432760571453.5819337239870.20911711810601161112123DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025234-5141.82832.8137.319119.098695558650.0062992160.2062992163.233.436299216FF9.828193.828141450.8270083625353.6929086185860.22573404550854161112123DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025234-5143.30429.37236.338118.082371789970.0311023790.1911023792.752.941102379FF11.304193.304141450.4468545032853.189832945080.26623258329792162112124DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2025234-5141.77430.32636.05118.437921193760.0311023790.1811023792.812.991102379FF9.774192.774141450.5799586613953.3657536354240.22432144594516161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025234-5142.15230.68636.419118.40031617050.0220472560.1620472562.843.002047256FF10.152195.152141450.5658864564453.3471434120820.23431435333701161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025234-5141.55829.98435.771116.438941635290.0224409570.1324409572.762.892440957FF9.558193.558141449.8300525146652.3777352305520.21872140646008161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025234-5140.29828.81434.556116.514469501480.0133858340.1133858342.712.823385834FF8.298186.298141449.8584556443752.4150193101580.18769425347831161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025234-5141.12629.08435.105116.595679206370.0098425250.0998425252.692.789842525FF9.126190.126141449.8889894168552.4551122885250.20776560116329161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025234-5140.26230.52435.393116.2575429470.1015748580.2015748582.612.811574858FF8.262193.262141449.7618131717552.2882033107340.1868495951597161112123DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2025234-5140.3730.57835.474116.334270066160.1015748580.2015748582.712.911574858FF8.37194.37141449.7906805481652.3260705041320.18939061635812161112123DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025234-5141.8130.97436.392115.695584660930.0767716950.1567716952.72.856771695FF9.81193.81141449.5502135886152.0109747955810.22526262171295161112123DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2025234-5142.2633.22437.742115.364614795590.0870079210.1470079212.462.607007921FF10.26202.26141449.4254489089751.847793792720.23721399954578161122124DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:05FORECAST2025234-5141.23430.05635.645116.556649723720.0870079210.1870079212.332.517007921FF9.234201.234141449.8743156348752.435843027150.2104737876965161122124DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:06FORECAST2025234-5143.30430.4736.887115.739009114690.0047244120.0447244122.422.464724412FF11.304208.304141449.5665753876952.0323899664570.26623258329792162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025234-5140.71232.43236.572116.950459249590.0893701270.2293701272.172.399370127FF8.712210.712141450.0223081742552.6303156135390.197576197243161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2025234-5142.3534.95238.651115.811951470990.0901575290.2501575292.112.360157529FF10.35216.35141449.5940551073352.0683648917380.23964532578896161122124DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025234-5142.94434.7938.867116.744095770660.0444882130.2044882132.22.404488213FF10.944209.944141449.9447758066752.5283959982830.25602740960916162122125DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025234-5144.38434.30439.344117.688344830880.1858268720.5758268722.162.735826872FF12.384211.384141450.2992053229552.9949681531180.29803196634552162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025234-5144.27634.1639.218115.468780418850.1913386860.6013386862.22.801338686FF12.276209.276141449.4647272107451.8991438923160.29477550387548162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025234-5141.2733.81837.544116.284923962950.2751969990.6851969992.132.815196999FF9.27198.27141449.7721154955952.3017162510610.21138109151861161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025234-5145.15834.57439.866115.705419095010.007874020.607874021.62.20787402FF13.158208.158141449.5539192402652.01582463150.32183347493217162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025234-5145.15834.57439.866115.909907428240.007874020.607874021.662.26787402FF13.158210.158141449.6309502422652.1166818194540.32183347493217162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:03FORECAST2025234-5146.14833.839.974114.3681196029800.341.682.02FF14.148219.148141449.0491693015951.3569091023050.35336401122722162122125DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025234-5159.8131.87445.842114.616343307130.0283464720.1183464721.791.908346472FF27.81222.81141449.1429884161451.4791269542940.79247623046692164122127DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025234-5157.61433.15245.383115.653396880380.0283464720.1183464721.831.948346472FF25.614217.614141449.5343160243451.9901706625140.73352927614375164122127DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025234-5157.70434.01645.86115.184087654150.0303149770.0903149771.771.860314977FF25.704220.704141449.3573519344451.7588166132550.73610088674351164122127DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025234-5135.72634.12434.925115.378479473170.1275591240.1975591241.331.527559124FF3.726211.726141449.4306775384251.8546282029770.099311308050418161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025234-5135.88834.05234.97115.045834857880.1145669910.1845669911.381.564566991FF3.888212.888141449.30518022651.690689565070.10180451561503161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025234-5138.78635.07836.932114.155767017120.1082677750.1682677751.411.578267775FF6.786219.786141448.9688611440451.2523847107010.1542569539976161122124DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025234-5141.16238.5739.866113.498810860230.0413386050.6813386051.372.051338605FF9.162225.162141448.7201369619250.9292019542170.20866603943324161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:04FORECAST2025234-5141.16238.5739.866113.437374360780.0413386050.7213386051.342.061338605FF9.162226.162141448.696855820550.8989932082150.20866603943324161123126DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:05FORECAST2025234-5150.21649.92850.072111.1926237724700.171.381.55FF18.216254.216141447.8437194140749.7969182016740.49140325955912162122125DRYL