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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 27, 2024

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DAY 240 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2024 04:00:04 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.718
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 241

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 147
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.88 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -46

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-18 16:00:04FORECAST2024240-4655.27430.90243.088104.4838478316900.281.952.23FF23.274241.274147448.7055157146.8824788246850.71801855148694164122127DRYL
2024-05-18 12:00:04FORECAST2024240-4659.97228.7644.366102.8439102609600.271.942.21FF27.972252.972147448.0827586955746.082583024770.85245888772582165122128DRYL
2024-05-18 08:00:04FORECAST2024240-4654.62629.40842.017102.2917654104800.291.992.28FF22.626250.626147447.8725004134145.8136687460940.69572648452764163122126DRYL
2024-05-18 04:00:06FORECAST2024240-4654.3230.52442.42299.69909760711700.251.711.96FF22.32256.32147446.8812525976144.553657621520.68493412163917163122126DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:04FORECAST2024240-4637.90433.92635.91590.8466123750040.0173228440.6873228441.392.077322844FF5.904266.904147443.4470843864640.2856653840830.1228866556566161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2024240-4640.58632.73836.66292.4489859081050.0165354420.6165354421.291.906535442FF8.586260.586147444.074434664441.0542311524380.18614188790516161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024240-4640.58632.73836.66292.1469922508120.0165354420.6165354421.31.916535442FF8.586262.586147443.9563953618940.909246523110.18614188790516161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2024240-4638.80434.05236.42891.6758785930300.311.211.52FF6.804267.804147443.7720717663640.683194574230.14218315269161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:04FORECAST2024240-4639.1131.71235.41192.46410897726700.31.331.63FF7.11258.11147444.0803433901641.0614932658890.14918642692089161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:05FORECAST2024240-4635.09633.0834.08893.39462278107500.171.371.54FF3.096257.096147444.443467635141.5086300072940.074645869918624161122124DRYL