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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 23, 2024

[ Wednesday, May 22, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, May 24, 2024 ]

DAY 236 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2024 04:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.151
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 246

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 143
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.29 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -50

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024236-5038.49825.80832.153103.750444853660.0181102461.2081102461.62.808110246FF6.498246.498143446.1379912218346.2870150553840.15098379352932161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024236-5041.1827.4134.295103.399539523580.0562992431.4762992431.63.076299243TF9.18252.18143446.0026655145446.1164702404930.2123505615416161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.22427.98635.105103.634914468250.0570866451.4770866451.623.097086645TF10.224253.224143446.0934505536346.2308565929740.23970311497776161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024236-5042.29628.34635.321101.828088642530.0507874291.1807874291.582.760787429FF10.296254.296143445.3951579240545.3537376220420.24165772816883161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024236-5045.10430.18237.64392.6851536930280.0011811030.6111811031.652.261181103FF13.104266.104143441.8120857133240.9494210677760.32413387250291162123127.5DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024236-5042.65629.6636.15893.4986758654890.0921260340.6121260341.622.232126034FF10.656260.656143442.1342843986241.3389701460070.25155909255403162123127.5DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.31429.4835.89793.6266330028880.0921260340.6121260341.632.242126034FF10.314261.314143442.1849017636641.4002835168440.24214772781148161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2024236-5041.66629.10235.38493.390929033180.0763779940.5663779941.582.146377994FF9.666259.666143442.0916490781441.2873498252180.22485079430644161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-504128.81434.90793.7871079318090.0696850770.6396850771.612.249685077FF9256143442.2483592880141.477194605210.20782574071632161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024236-5040.0128.32834.16994.2507180912060.1145669910.7845669911.612.394566991FF8.01262.01143442.4315420837641.6994905475940.18397282026772161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:04FORECAST2024236-5039.57825.35832.46896.213118683720.1334646390.9734646391.612.583464639FF7.578260.578143443.2045461055942.6420915956210.17412009153079161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2024236-5039.34424.92632.13598.5295625452760.1381890510.8681890511.662.528189051FF7.344256.344143444.1120657401143.7581675584520.16892561055235161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024236-5040.8225.77233.29697.4995511719980.0728346850.7828346851.622.402834685FF8.82260.82143443.70919453243.2614473177590.20335825160191161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:04FORECAST2024236-5039.68627.98633.83696.8256902840860.1161417950.6361417951.682.316141795FF7.686252.686143443.4450545357742.936873508490.17655134288701161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-5039.75826.58233.1796.8683850383540.1767717490.7767717491.642.416771749FF7.758259.758143443.4618034440842.9574287258250.178184017476161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024236-5037.63426.18631.91100.573758889230.6196853741.3896853741.683.069685374TF5.634253.634143444.9085030382744.7461205123390.13401453187758161124128DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:04FORECAST2024236-5037.79628.72433.2692.5831066266910.4948821571.0948821571.572.664882157FF5.796260.796143441.7716225526240.9005892354350.13709244550652161124128DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024236-5037.74230.07433.90896.7348725550790.4885829410.9885829411.572.558582941FF5.742259.742143443.4094212176942.8931538512140.13606116826475161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024236-5040.47831.65836.06894.5058666191860.1625985130.2725985131.61.872598513FF8.478256.478143442.532265014541.8218952121470.19502922101112161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024236-5041.75631.78436.7793.3973434627990.1877953770.7077953771.62.307795377FF9.756264.756143442.0941875885841.2904226811180.22721051250435161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-504131.62236.31194.0800501339320.2059056230.9859056231.592.575905623FF9263143442.3641324241941.6176397559210.20782574071632161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024236-5042.15231.1936.67193.7957820826420.0704724790.7304724791.572.300472479FF10.152261.152143442.2517886205941.4813523911150.23775714730187161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024236-5046.09431.76638.9394.0881067784140.0110236280.2610236281.752.011023628FF14.094277.094143442.3673152584841.6215031933210.35574130381533162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024236-5047.44431.38839.41697.065580409080.0165354420.0765354421.891.966535442FF15.444274.444143443.5391384982843.0523839124790.40045096667156162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024236-5048.0230.39839.20996.0586782633550.0263779670.1063779671.81.906377967FF16.02281.02143443.1438504750142.5678125571630.41997094448732162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 12:00:04FORECAST2024236-5051.22433.7142.46794.0212418813380.0759842930.1859842931.631.815984293FF19.224276.224143442.3408978357541.5894405494230.53082221366487163122126DRYL
2024-05-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024236-5048.3834.03441.20793.69848530005100.081.571.65FF16.38275.38143442.2133179288141.434718069440.43227495440949162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024236-5051.06234.37642.71993.7043302166600.151.491.64FF19.062274.062143442.2156292498741.4375193501980.52520223509105163122126DRYL
2024-05-14 00:00:05FORECAST2024236-5036.69831.24433.97186.1431605264950.003937010.403937011.321.72393701FF4.698269.698143439.1967566556737.8337967113050.11715967110908161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024236-5034.5230.18232.35189.2998316582830.0279527710.4779527711.251.727952771FF2.52271.52143440.4641427748739.3333738013060.083870327056797161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 16:00:04FORECAST2024236-5034.5234.12434.32287.3047829785350.0397638010.4797638011.31.779763801FF2.52273.52143439.6643237898638.3847983718780.083870327056797161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024236-5037.00435.2436.12285.8077165991560.1027559610.3027559611.31.602755961FF5.004290.004143439.0614794942737.6748630020510.12249674202693161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 08:00:04FORECAST2024236-5039.2933.87236.58184.62905872552900.081.291.37FF7.29297.29143438.5852376326937.1170558317670.16774113323859161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 04:00:06FORECAST2024236-5036.51834.89835.70882.7425893236900.041.251.29FF4.518312.518143437.8200280371336.2263627775630.11409802877655161121122DRYL