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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 22, 2024

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DAY 235 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2024 04:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.95°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.051
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 241

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.33 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.64 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 142
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.34 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -51

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024235-5132.10823.95428.031103.982155891880.3326773451.1926773452.643.832677345TF0.108241.108142445.6498310849646.3396302090650.05097448370586161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024235-5135.627.62631.613103.557397530920.6444885371.4244885372.644.064488537TF3.6243.6142445.4854818320346.1333171363320.091988041649721161124128WETL
2024-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024235-5136.26627.8632.063103.88782660690.6307090021.4207090022.664.080709002TF4.266244.266142445.6133481246346.2938022436910.10201795498511161124128WETL
2024-05-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024235-5136.3227.87832.099102.142831492050.5732286561.1332286562.623.753228656TF4.32245.32142444.9368718258545.4471119235090.10286466735604161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024235-5140.92830.07435.50193.465261171390.1751969450.6051969452.693.295196945FF8.928253.928142441.5279773749941.2675277198290.19457880774197161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024235-5139.8329.55234.69194.0954846736410.1570866990.5170866992.663.177086699FF7.83250.83142441.7780924158841.5693237240690.16917513518057161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024235-5138.94829.1234.03494.1788862172790.1570866990.5170866992.673.187086699FF6.948251.948142441.811161765641.6092831334460.15038382880001161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024235-5139.84829.4834.66493.8938803701190.1228347120.4928347122.623.112834712FF7.848250.848142441.6981258281441.4727509862130.16957365924358161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024235-5138.06629.33633.70194.3237189470680.0846457150.5746457152.653.224645715FF6.066248.066142441.868572407241.6786870352790.13303380828732161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024235-5140.38828.8534.61994.4965606813390.1153543930.6653543932.653.315354393FF8.388255.388142441.9370579789741.7615320166420.18180802024359161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:04FORECAST2024235-5137.59825.55631.57795.9124884420130.2582678560.8382678562.653.488267856TF5.598253.598142442.4969644742642.4409849907640.1244083619622161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2024235-5136.91426.18631.5598.1620862785670.2740158960.7340158962.73.434015896TF4.914249.914142443.382401984343.5233415979810.11251601755244161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024235-5137.5826.3331.95597.627001491770.2889765340.7089765342.663.368976534FF5.58252.58142443.1722519669743.2655781038910.1240845864996161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024235-5135.22225.0730.14696.9469978058810.1791339550.5191339552.723.239133955FF3.222246.222142442.904773823142.9382881360430.086629404319946161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024235-5137.52624.40430.96596.7584276619740.212598540.602598542.683.28259854FF5.526252.526142442.8305182623542.8475846678020.12311678851525161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024235-5136.3226.81631.56898.0480781331350.4456695320.7756695322.713.485669532TF4.32249.32142443.3376501924343.4684045654280.10286466735604161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024235-5140.71230.6535.68190.6598573276290.5480317920.6180317922.593.208031792FF8.712255.712142440.409733807939.9274836327230.189406460759161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024235-5141.6331.67636.65395.220256702480.4275592860.5175592862.593.107559286FF9.63254.63142442.2234838379342.1086336509130.21197222762931161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024235-5143.39430.68637.0495.0069300086210.0381889970.1581889972.592.748188997FF11.394249.394142442.1391076908842.0062792584610.25947718028537162122125DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024235-5141.0929.51635.30393.8890479310190.0677165720.5877165722.573.157716572FF9.09256.09142441.6962085328241.4704364938870.19851378607384161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024235-5139.63229.51634.57494.6186917339320.2381891050.8481891052.563.408189105TF7.632254.632142441.9854321878541.8200833590710.16483101192841161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024235-5140.40627.51833.96294.3767634992190.1413386590.6913386592.583.271338659FF8.406252.406142441.8895935987341.7041096678330.18222509809376161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024235-5144.63630.16437.494.9906315784140.0066929170.2466929172.793.036692917FF12.636263.636142442.13265936641.9984605546210.29594697295253162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024235-5147.64230.3839.01198.01701495500300.062.932.99FF15.642259.642142443.3254546688943.4534377202150.39256860759195162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024235-5144.20432.95438.57996.9900376053080.0220472560.0820472562.842.922047256FF12.204266.204142442.9217171441142.9589940020150.28299793999519162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 12:00:04FORECAST2024235-5145.12234.01639.56995.3930362813380.0507874290.2007874292.582.780787429FF13.122258.122142442.2917890647942.1915566811950.31083099981354162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024235-5142.65635.00638.83194.8623605000510.0468504190.0768504192.612.686850419FF10.656259.656142442.0819007679841.93693264120.23896047215274161121122DRYL
2024-05-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024235-5140.74831.9136.32995.0873060322350.1216536090.1516536092.532.681653609FF8.748255.748142442.1709038256442.0448400506180.19026260548227161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024235-5138.76830.12834.44886.1679050136040.3578742090.4078742092.352.757874209FF6.768265.768142438.6025493590437.7934628118940.14672621669838161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024235-5137.14827.98632.56789.1809955665530.31496080.47496082.272.7449608FF5.148270.148142439.8170392485539.223321427320.11648980847872161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 16:00:04FORECAST2024235-5140.58629.76835.17787.4053477785350.2964568530.4864568532.292.776456853FF8.586271.586142439.1024518780638.379902516810.18642862952484161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024235-5145.3231.2838.385.2403933001190.1059055690.2459055692.292.535905569FF13.32286.32142438.2268213092237.3546266030590.31698659672332162122125DRYL
2024-05-13 08:00:04FORECAST2024235-5146.65231.33438.99384.7835467255290.0696850770.0996850772.312.409685077FF14.652290.652142438.0414305595737.1387060955650.35964866599338162122125DRYL
2024-05-13 04:00:06FORECAST2024235-5148.32633.56640.94682.803400523690.0440945120.0440945122.292.334094512FF16.326309.326142437.2353851459536.204576719370.41578730992687162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024235-5137.79629.85833.82780.9733305935660.0177165450.0477165452.282.327716545FF5.796297.796142436.4868168794335.3437913229110.12800878959571161121122DRYL
2024-05-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024235-5137.8532.95435.40284.3741015858320.0370078940.0670078942.282.347007894FF5.85301.85142437.8750926613236.9453175501120.1290031268152161121122DRYL
2024-05-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024235-5138.4834.3436.4186.2905823035670.0405512030.2005512032.292.490551203FF6.48291.48142438.6521787624137.8515519341370.14099880938111161122124DRYL
2024-05-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024235-5143.91638.3941.15382.754112242891002.32.3FF11.916321.916142437.2152699249136.1813615216720.27451897395577162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024235-5136.0531.3733.7185.1537799115040.125984320.265984322.312.57598432FF4.05299.05142438.1916896638237.3136787006830.098681653564803161122124DRYL
2024-05-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024235-5136.12233.85434.98884.0572834154690.0515748310.3815748312.312.691574831FF4.122295.122142437.7462658858236.7957619356280.099784793037373161122124DRYL