MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 21, 2024

[ Monday, May 20, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 22, 2024 ]

DAY 234 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2024 04:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.23°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.098
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 251

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.86 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.91 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 103 in
SWE DAY: 141
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 45.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -52

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024234-5235.9628.4932.225102.523039185380.862205190.912205193.124.03220519TF3.96250.96141444.5027176794945.5717695426630.097783770345202161123126WETL
2024-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024234-5236.53629.332.918101.226338416050.7771657740.8271657743.123.947165774TF4.536249.536141443.9966523936544.9441553907930.10846929612054161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024234-5236.82429.71433.269102.056215098770.7925201130.8425201133.143.982520113TF4.824249.824141444.3207215540245.3456911317580.11411553683821161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024234-5237.3129.64233.476100.510995381050.5574806160.6174806163.093.707480616TF5.31251.31141443.7167602256944.5984132375390.12411090349256161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024234-5237.6729.85833.76493.6642996877340.4303151930.5103151933.143.650315193TF5.67254.67141441.0119692769741.3070772562360.13189807027698161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024234-5237.07629.85833.46794.0047496596290.3633860230.4333860233.123.553386023TF5.076253.076141441.1475784501341.4699676751560.11922458176721161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024234-5238.98430.0234.50294.0611948035220.3633860230.4333860233.133.563386023TF6.984254.984141441.1700505381741.496982065150.16313289338706161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024234-5237.38229.67833.5393.928749604790.3728348470.4328348473.093.522834847TF5.382253.382141441.1173160200141.433597922780.1256421035432161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024234-5236.91429.98433.44994.3431363140230.4874018380.5674018383.13.667401838TF4.914251.914141441.2822496026241.6319514272180.11592204669303161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024234-5238.46231.1934.82694.4668170565060.5476380910.6276380913.13.727638091TF6.462257.462141441.3314431982741.6911767058950.15019323464181161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024234-5238.64229.82234.23294.9141949873560.5755908620.6455908623.113.755590862TF6.642257.642141441.5092572556641.9054957318860.15457588439251161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024234-5238.8429.49834.16997.0649913717870.4629923760.5529923763.143.692992376TF6.84254.84141442.3612939844542.9377951838130.15949320687279161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024234-5239.32630.07434.796.5226237634940.4188978640.4888978643.123.608897864TF7.326257.326141442.1468740682642.6771763738960.17199114050707161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024234-5237.95828.81433.38696.1912819992260.3417324680.4317324683.163.591732468TF5.958252.958141442.0157358030342.5180602907240.1383650075956161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024234-5237.74229.44433.59395.8869923892560.3850395780.4450395783.153.595039578TF5.742256.742141441.8952069675642.3720023473480.13349497332131161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024234-5238.37229.53433.95396.0122472373120.3177167070.3977167073.173.567716707TF6.372255.372141441.9448315790642.4321164348210.14803318883077161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024234-5242.56629.10235.83490.3254589311120.0547244390.1247244393.073.194724439FF10.566256.566141439.6757981376139.7139182476830.27037972455644162122125DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024234-5242.33229.49835.91594.9761052237890.0724409840.1524409843.063.212440984FF10.332255.332141441.5338480792941.9351652150430.26244354145469162122125DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024234-5240.13627.96834.05295.6375552346780.0736220870.2036220873.043.243622087FF8.136248.136141441.7963356350542.2523214517750.19416660760243161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024234-5240.6429.64235.14194.3366478735930.4539372530.5839372533.043.623937253TF8.64256.64141441.2796684207941.6288446935880.20880288737232161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024234-5239.41629.7534.58394.4384464634310.5385829680.6885829683.013.698582968TF7.416257.416141441.32016025741.6775903276640.17437224306232161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024234-5239.32629.35434.3494.0306866113140.5153546090.6353546093.023.655354609TF7.326254.326141441.1579049371441.4823807052480.17199114050707161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024234-5240.44228.97634.70995.6832782638710.23622060.41622063.143.5562206TF8.442261.442141441.8144639146542.2742562917490.2029771082217161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024234-5240.47829.49834.98898.9310525550030.0562992430.2862992433.233.516299243FF8.478254.478141443.0967712457943.836029963070.20402907494526161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024234-5245.01431.13638.07597.7920942934040.059055150.269055153.163.42905515FF13.014264.014141442.6482842149843.2875027487650.3598430711181162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024234-5244.2430.45237.34696.3558802813380.0555118410.2155118413.043.255511841FF12.24255.24141442.080894217942.5970937179270.3304029174059162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024234-5245.8631.22638.54395.7129019579860.0271653690.0871653693.083.167165369FF13.86258.86141441.8262080014642.2884685289120.3929946741105162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024234-5243.77230.84837.3195.5491491157990.0295275750.0395275753.053.089527575FF11.772256.772141441.7612783805742.2099142615710.3130841574479162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024234-5240.78429.9335.35786.0359601947980.0437008110.0937008112.842.933700811FF8.784268.784141437.9424683013637.6788007703880.21310091020588161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024234-5241.48628.00434.74588.0748032787560.1401575560.1601575562.82.960157556FF9.486275.486141438.7686929862638.6444663196420.23477804653384161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024234-5241.97227.6834.82687.9580605785350.1405512570.1905512572.823.010551257FF9.972272.972141438.7214993466138.5890922166350.25047092476947162122125DRYL
2024-05-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024234-5245.93230.81238.37286.0314468162250.0877953230.1377953232.822.957795323FF13.932282.932141437.9406345406537.6766664091480.39585613735201162122125DRYL
2024-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024234-5246.70632.01839.36285.6838083255290.007874020.047874022.822.86787402FF14.706285.706141437.7993277605237.5123136848780.42694125521049162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 04:00:06FORECAST2024234-5248.59636.0542.32383.9221101236900.012.812.82FF16.596302.596141437.0813178857236.6807864926130.50438358163645163121123DRYL
2024-05-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024234-525037.47243.73680.9329298553560.0259842660.0259842662.812.835984266FF18302141435.8556521093335.2750749192250.56196796714161163121123DRYL
2024-05-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024234-5250.70237.444.05184.2058546644570.0271653690.0271653692.812.837165369FF18.702305.702141437.1971799438536.8145621940620.59035058378288163121123DRYL
2024-05-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024234-5252.98831.22642.10786.1569648730760.0885827250.1585827252.822.978582725FF20.988294.988141437.9916239954737.7360289632790.67885362537662163122126DRYL
2024-05-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024234-5264.7628.47246.61683.118684242891002.832.83FF32.76319.76141436.7527998320836.3023180614410.95367617994277165121124DRYL
2024-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024234-5250.75627.55439.15584.2308613346150.086614220.136614222.842.97661422FF18.756304.756141437.2073869714236.8263547864590.59251635127597163122126DRYL
2024-05-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024234-5248.59629.10238.84983.7157091006140.0933071370.3333071372.843.173307137FF16.596300.596141436.9969852046736.5835124912390.50438358163645163122126DRYL
2024-05-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024234-5232.5429.80431.17290.4248356424390.1196851040.4396851042.843.279685104FF0.54264.54141439.7157315515939.7612227549470.049640892613029161122124DRYL
2024-05-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024234-5244.85230.2937.57193.3566151605430.0200787510.3000787512.823.120078751FF12.852276.852141440.8893104234541.1599336815990.35360485764321162122125DRYL
2024-05-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024234-5244.8731.78438.32793.5927387972530.0303149770.1003149772.792.890314977FF12.87271.87141440.983449985341.2728488483860.35429609132179162122125DRYL
2024-05-11 12:00:05FORECAST2024234-5240.2830.52435.40290.174287115709002.912.91FF8.28292.28141439.6150321108239.6419721259420.19828340715852161121122DRYL
2024-05-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024234-5235.27631.24433.2690.947516590280.0767716950.0767716952.92.976771695FF3.276281.276141439.9255991641840.0101407284730.086119129204274161121122DRYL
2024-05-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024234-5235.49232.64834.0790.4342991346640.0153543390.0953543393.093.185354339FF3.492275.492141439.719533823939.7657278571850.089684853045317161122124DRYL