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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 20, 2024

[ Sunday, May 19, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 21, 2024 ]

DAY 233 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2024 04:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.355
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 263

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 100 in
SWE DAY: 140
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -53

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024233-5344.70825.7935.249100.373794542430.0031496080.2731496082.983.253149608FF12.708262.708140443.075803996244.4731997170370.35496445774176162122125DRYL
2024-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024233-5343.50226.31234.907101.050955097320.0047244120.2747244122.983.254724412FF11.502260.502140443.3418708444744.8001194834650.30910062263304162122125DRYL
2024-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024233-5344.27626.40235.339101.127742324430.003937010.293937012.983.27393701FF12.276261.276140443.3720128539544.8372106697590.33824907706248162122125DRYL
2024-05-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024233-5344.27626.11435.195100.723497027470.0027559070.2527559072.983.232755907FF12.276262.276140443.213264649344.6419899444380.33824907706248162122125DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024233-5345.89627.03236.46493.99954068571600.322.983.3FF13.896264.896140440.5487041920841.4113758437430.40230232653501162122125DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:01FORECAST2024233-5345.35626.97836.16794.13561875104900.282.993.27FF13.356264.356140440.6030814262841.4764436936820.38056016744636162122125DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024233-5345.03226.92435.97894.20857322573700.292.993.28FF13.032264.032140440.6322265315741.5113333788190.36768888246698162122125DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024233-5344.9627.55436.25793.85119923241300.242.993.23FF12.96263.96140440.4894050526641.3404589133640.36484808183557162122125DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024233-5344.22227.44635.83493.9915282991480.0023622060.2723622062.993.262362206FF12.222263.222140440.5455018305941.4075450023730.3361810674263162122125DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:03FORECAST2024233-5345.75228.0436.89693.85343981092500.282.983.26FF13.752266.752140440.4903008847341.3415299413810.39647173574714162122125DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024233-5345.4128.88637.14893.8130621927360.0011811030.2711811032.993.261181103FF13.41267.41140440.4741562518841.3222294147510.38271873236858162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024233-5345.0527.82436.43795.8930799720980.0019685050.2519685053.063.311968505FF13.05264.05140441.3036823544542.3179693039960.36840022171099162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024233-5345.73427.01436.37495.708306492870.0019685050.2119685053.063.271968505FF13.734265.734140441.2301705953842.2293924012440.3957445076532162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024233-5344.626.27635.43895.1799767527110.0019685050.2719685053.063.331968505FF12.6262.6140441.0197852039741.9762529031990.35075784786109162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024233-5345.8627.30236.58194.8409986256420.0019685050.2519685053.043.291968505FF13.86266.86140440.8846524754541.8139407194910.40084258508186162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024233-5344.4226.83435.62795.3588607312860.007874020.257874023.073.32787402FF12.42265.42140441.0910499393642.0619400009840.34378751764329162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024233-5342.31427.17634.74590.8729709091920.0216535550.2116535553.013.221653555FF10.314262.314140439.2941258701239.9199623207740.26665191639001162122125DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024233-5341.0927.53634.31394.9387091040440.0216535550.2116535553.013.221653555FF9.09261.09140440.9236164337241.8607189577040.2262276008831161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024233-5338.98425.59232.28895.3242304890920.0519685320.2419685323.013.251968532FF6.984255.984140441.0772562896542.0453500420510.16546664877197161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024233-5341.8126.0633.93593.1111590096220.0688976750.1988976753.053.248897675FF9.81263.81140440.193241754240.9869029279370.24957694559196162122125DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024233-5340.67625.71833.19792.9655113973270.0736220870.2336220873.013.243622087FF8.676265.676140440.1348881445940.9173649601670.21338015112028161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024233-5341.0926.90633.99892.5091821151930.0311023790.1911023793.033.221102379FF9.09263.09140439.9519203140340.6995923182590.2262276008831161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024233-5344.4228.74236.58195.621967988330.0011811030.2611811033.143.401181103FF12.42269.42140441.195809165342.188011540590.34378751764329162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024233-5344.6928.88636.78899.3390327628220.0019685050.3719685053.173.541968505FF12.69261.69140442.6683451218343.9742452391220.35426211119634162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024233-5345.42829.06637.24798.50002083895800.323.133.45FF13.428267.428140442.3371797035843.5702214186480.38343906780384162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024233-5337.95826.632.27997.0293341853160.086614220.206614223.073.27661422FF5.958258.958140441.7549811909142.8631916980.14009395272551161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024233-5338.55226.45632.50496.61375395798600.123.13.22FF6.552260.552140441.5900715817642.663674526090.15444283301994161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024233-5338.2126.31232.26196.27858831579900.023.123.14FF6.21261.21140441.4569450405642.502851470710.14606714997953161121122DRYL
2024-05-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024233-5338.69627.98633.34186.4881002531340.0102362260.0502362262.922.970236226FF6.696275.696140437.5177678170237.8400805654860.15806234886003161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024233-5340.22627.66233.94488.2441841467670.0244094620.0244094622.882.904409462FF8.226282.226140438.231552155938.6713857873690.19990906971003161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024233-5339.07425.59232.33388.4284767940690.0503937280.0503937282.92.950393728FF7.074279.074140438.306275996538.7587563556510.1678256626859161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024233-5343.730.36237.03186.6380975789860.0535433360.0535433362.92.953543336FF11.7284.7140437.5788607193837.9110000335070.31645304774994162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024233-5347.46227.12237.29286.5843651255290.0185039470.0385039472.92.938503947FF15.462287.462140437.5569785278637.8855931920790.46684552300728162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024233-5353.63631.78442.7185.2217773236900.012.892.9FF21.636301.636140437.0010742271437.2420082379990.71366831443671164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2024233-5354.55432.59443.57482.40656825535600.012.882.89FF22.554299.554140435.8464220493235.916607927460.74549976002902164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024233-5352.3436.93244.63685.74246906445700.012.882.89FF20.34303.34140437.2137315744537.4877848540780.6657632748637163121123DRYL
2024-05-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024233-5343.731.53237.61687.1630046549180.0732283860.0932283862.882.973228386FF11.7289.7140437.7924686889338.1593069862210.31645304774994162122125DRYL
2024-05-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024233-5345.48230.63238.05784.3905042428910.0031496080.0131496082.92.913149608FF13.482303.482140436.6609879165136.8500409534730.3856024827829162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024233-5343.62831.33437.48184.7967603408690.0515748310.0615748312.912.971574831FF11.628301.628140436.8272831055537.0415384358540.3137708396838162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024233-5344.0633.13438.59784.4706680852670.2444883210.2544883212.913.164488321FF12.06300.06140436.6938154427136.887818339150.33000691015479162122125DRYL
2024-05-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024233-5340.35230.95635.65489.4006233129170.3244096240.3544096242.893.244409624FF8.352280.352140438.6998670061739.2200415576450.20362856181006161122124DRYL
2024-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024233-5344.13232.03638.08493.2978751891550.255905650.285905652.893.17590565FF12.132280.132140440.2680178857741.0760705824830.33274539507423162122125DRYL
2024-05-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024233-5348.66830.52439.59693.6280581143930.0515748310.0715748312.872.941574831FF16.668274.668140440.4001628333541.233812039350.51724629459939163121123DRYL
2024-05-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024233-5360.51232.30646.40990.287447115709002.992.99FF28.512299.512140439.0580668933339.6414319953570.90070085530686165121124DRYL
2024-05-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024233-5355.05833.36844.21390.343614298961002.982.98FF23.058294.058140439.0807264050139.6681397924420.76215378416004164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024233-5355.11231.33443.22390.34259974586100.083.173.25FF23.112288.112140439.0803171327939.6676573470140.76390205881753164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-11 00:00:04FORECAST2024233-5343.8833.33238.606103.380175529760.0043307110.0243307112.983.004330711FF11.88298.88140444.2535711546345.9270121656910.32320066332109162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024233-5352.86233.58443.223106.659287074300.012.882.89FF20.862312.862140445.527968991447.5196955442810.68544372051796163121123DRYL
2024-05-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024233-5353.02443.50248.263107.4502746190100.092.872.96FF21.024315.024140445.8337935930147.9049635560020.6914492259353163121123DRYL
2024-05-10 12:00:04FORECAST2024233-5361.21452.48456.849101.9045367989700.032.872.9FF29.214349.214140443.6766049421245.2126589151660.91297380484788165121124DRYL
2024-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024233-5357.36249.65853.51100.8300108108500.032.892.92FF25.362348.362140443.2551087130344.69341740350.83018912833715164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024233-5353.63651.92652.781100.17368841086002.872.87FF21.636346.636140442.9970915661544.3766526174650.71366831443671164121123.5DRYL