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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 19, 2024

[ Saturday, May 18, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, May 20, 2024 ]

DAY 232 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2024 04:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.122
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 263

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 101 in
SWE DAY: 139
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.73 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -54

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-18 16:00:01FORECAST2024232-5436.51823.43229.975100.984757028310.0464567180.2664567182.983.246456718FF4.518262.518139442.7273436118144.7087132244260.12213492561468161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024232-5436.35623.9930.173101.628533575430.0484252230.2684252232.983.248425223FF4.356262.356139442.9808734233345.0194965679780.11879705997081161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024232-5436.44624.49430.47101.726677388260.0500000270.2900000272.983.270000027FF4.446262.446139443.019487668745.0669004987860.12064341206424161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024232-5436.51824.63830.578101.317460891450.0625984590.2525984592.983.232598459FF4.518262.518139442.8584196372244.8692906120430.12213492561468161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024232-5436.98624.42230.70494.7229774857160.0834646120.3234646122.983.303464612FF4.986263.986139440.2396037104241.7008060705830.13214441960295161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:01FORECAST2024232-5436.66224.76430.71394.8282098005850.0724409840.2924409842.983.272440984FF4.662263.662139440.2817391388841.7511291304280.12515656075773161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:02FORECAST2024232-5436.60824.42230.51594.8950634752730.0728346850.3028346852.983.282834685FF4.608263.608139440.308501760841.7831032232930.12401740524737161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024232-5436.80624.99830.90294.5134926289940.0633858610.2533858612.983.233385861FF4.806263.806139440.1556916255141.6006517160570.12822985426437161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024232-5436.60824.96230.78594.6305008957290.082677210.282677212.983.26267721FF4.608263.608139440.2025664253441.6565893564160.12401740524737161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:03FORECAST2024232-5438.15625.05231.60494.6018125845320.0783464990.2783464992.983.258346499FF6.156266.156139440.1910748611241.6428735653950.15958359477157161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024232-5438.37225.46631.91994.515613894430.0685039740.2885039742.973.258503974FF6.372267.372139440.1565415517941.6016657344170.16502943072012161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024232-5438.37225.12431.74896.542370763150.0858268180.2758268183.033.305826818FF6.372264.372139440.9665123137542.5719525259280.16502943072012161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024232-5438.78624.69231.73996.3959930847830.0704724790.2404724793.033.270472479FF6.786264.786139440.9081537042342.5017793354980.17579858568815161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024232-5437.8524.47631.16395.7763287281030.0854331170.2954331173.033.325433117FF5.85262.85139440.6608622247342.2048795980450.15207180350391161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024232-5439.00225.26832.13595.5246057525030.062992160.282992163.013.29299216FF7.002266.002139440.5602950907842.0843484987540.18158963662057161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024232-5437.8525.12431.48795.9514794579340.0677165720.2677165723.053.317716572FF5.85265.85139440.7307996629342.2887722703370.15207180350391161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024232-5436.69825.8831.28991.4083653091920.0535433360.2135433362.993.203543336FF4.698264.698139438.9066393980740.1197384307290.12592003299917161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024232-5436.62625.50231.06495.4030587040440.0574803460.2074803462.993.197480346FF4.626264.626139440.5117121827742.0261647371910.12439631725587161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024232-5435.4224.00829.71495.5299747552670.0751968910.2051968912.993.195196891FF3.42262.42139440.5624407597242.0869188438950.10076736101732161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024232-5437.7625.12431.44293.4222937859320.0641732630.18417326333.184173263FF5.76266.76139439.717873934941.0794524016710.1499077650806161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024232-5436.60825.30430.95693.2078784087470.0779527980.2079527982.963.167952798FF4.608269.608139439.6317021040240.9771382343420.12401740524737161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024232-5436.39225.48430.93892.8547466243590.0850394160.1950394162.993.185039416FF4.392267.392139439.4896789205840.8087027801910.11953319877876161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024232-5436.84226.52831.68596.3021440912350.1838583670.3938583673.013.403858367FF4.842269.842139440.8707260854842.4567961890910.12900627319618161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024232-5436.17626.47431.325100.035366126740.2346457960.5246457963.023.544645796TF4.176262.176139442.3527005255944.2509143542320.11516425958402161123126DRYL
2024-05-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024232-5437.11227.51832.31599.2830340913390.2137796430.4937796432.963.453779643FF5.112267.112139442.0551773744743.8885792455220.13493301627916161123126DRYL
2024-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024232-5434.01625.4329.72397.0127362467130.0728346850.2728346852.923.192834685FF2.016266.016139441.153893240242.7975462891230.07758288505863161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024232-5434.5225.66430.09296.9196872383840.0598425520.3098425522.913.219842552FF2.52266.52139441.1168427847742.7529064382830.085390521869417161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024232-5436.80628.41832.61296.5501723157990.0059055150.2159055152.923.135905515FF4.806267.806139440.969622068142.5756929967080.12822985426437161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024232-5439.39829.85834.62886.7672729126650.0397638010.0797638012.882.959763801FF7.398282.398139437.021275234337.9191442568960.19251174363669161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024232-5443.66428.41836.04188.583077267791002.882.88FF11.664286.664139437.7615624609938.7782663123510.3332544566745162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024232-5442.78225.21433.99888.69654233578400.022.882.9FF10.782284.782139437.8077079125938.8320298998010.30103234153975162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024232-5445.529.6637.5887.38328077898600.032.872.9FF13.5285.5139437.2727989108238.2103317642370.40416352703948162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024232-5444.88827.4136.14987.5182882107240.0216535550.0516535552.872.921653555FF12.888284.888139437.3278715669138.2741867063750.38004189617943162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024232-5447.26427.87837.57186.736546923690.011811030.021811032.882.90181103FF15.264293.264139437.0087191232237.9046272722930.47543496955404162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2024232-5448.90227.5938.24684.04886425535600.022.872.89FF16.902289.902139435.9066027307536.637454880930.54237919525417163121123DRYL
2024-05-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024232-5453.72631.89242.80987.42284586445700.022.872.89FF21.726295.726139437.2889403812538.2290436331810.72619389764842164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024232-5451.85431.11841.48687.86421798526800.032.872.9FF19.854290.854139437.4688981681838.4378626304240.65883284860595163121123DRYL
2024-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024232-5451.1732.77441.97285.16953704289100.032.882.91FF19.17303.17139436.3670627120137.1651807119480.63273520932923163121123DRYL
2024-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024232-5451.69232.86442.27885.26220736816700.032.892.92FF19.692302.692139436.4050802844937.2088604517380.65271459114819163121123DRYL
2024-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024232-5451.04431.87441.45985.29112728526700.032.892.92FF19.044301.044139436.4169427148137.2224930105360.62785583717042163121123DRYL
2024-05-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024232-5449.04629.40839.22789.26450041408600.042.882.92FF17.046285.046139438.0384927107639.1012872139650.54823470176383163121123DRYL
2024-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024232-5448.32629.85839.09293.6136406842350.0204724520.0404724522.882.920472452FF16.326281.326139439.7947351096541.1707863073730.51887773367334163121123DRYL
2024-05-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024232-5447.87630.23639.05694.5612837143930.019685050.019685052.872.88968505FF15.876270.876139440.1748389434941.6234978292730.50046725931643163121123DRYL
2024-05-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024232-5451.85429.10240.47891.70037271570900.132.862.99FF19.854283.854139439.0245208631640.2587121944870.65883284860595163122126DRYL
2024-05-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024232-5454.12232.6343.37691.72318229896100.122.862.98FF22.122284.122139439.0337252605340.2695704174640.73955475169571164122127DRYL
2024-05-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024232-5450.79233.99842.39591.9203794852480.0779527980.1979527983.053.247952798FF18.792277.792139439.1132784107740.363459188530.6180360020819163122126DRYL
2024-05-11 00:00:04FORECAST2024232-5452.98839.54246.265103.612996741360.0208661530.0208661532.983.000866153FF20.988299.988139443.7597842130645.9792810756130.7004249505605164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024232-5453.7839.57846.679106.962244087410.0066929170.0066929172.882.886692917FF21.78304.78139445.0655068096847.6052053742620.72803558067127164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024232-5468.21640.44254.329108.078952219010.0897638280.0897638282.872.959763828FF36.216307.216139445.4983982486348.1490000979580.98175348446404165121118DRYL
2024-05-10 12:00:04FORECAST2024232-5478.4437.29257.866102.919139198970.0271653690.0271653692.872.897165369FF46.44333.44139443.4878882566445.6433917045420.99917577235574165121118DRYL
2024-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024232-5477.32440.71259.018101.718464410850.0283464720.0283464722.892.918346472FF45.324336.324139443.0162566784345.0629333383740.99878535067352165121118DRYL
2024-05-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024232-5477.32447.46262.393100.51454601086002.872.87FF45.324338.324139442.5419046083144.4818986324860.99878535067352165121118DRYL
2024-05-10 00:00:04FORECAST2024232-5455.74245.39250.567114.56267189102003.073.07FF23.742309.742139447.9876926596151.3226670453780.79051522350137164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024232-5447.55241.73844.645119.69293728024003.13.1FF15.552296.552139449.9285083354853.8532647287890.487208834005162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024232-5439.9236.30238.111116.1140996530600.012.862.87FF7.92320.92139448.577278640952.086146834210.20750656433853161121122DRYL
2024-05-09 12:00:04FORECAST2024232-5439.9236.30238.111114.3007844530600.012.862.87FF7.92320.92139447.8879387041951.1939427409550.20750656433853161121122DRYL
2024-05-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024232-5440.56838.10239.335114.6397724530600.042.862.9FF8.568316.568139448.0170479259251.3605724293220.22704800025862161121122DRYL
2024-05-09 04:00:06FORECAST2024232-5439.81239.12839.47115.1981061071800.052.862.91FF7.812312.812139448.2294564035851.6351844791410.20434892316496161121122DRYL