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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 17, 2024

[ Thursday, May 16, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 18, 2024 ]

DAY 230 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.85°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.095
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 257

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 101 in
SWE DAY: 137
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.42 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -56

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-18 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024230-5636.7199624.9830.84998100.6428433333300.123.313.43FF4.71996256.71996137441.40769022633 44.4245250135770.09492875355907916 1122124DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:01FORECAST2024230-5537.72423.03630.3893.8481712559140.0043307110.1243307113.313.434330711FF5.724257.724138439.2873070794841.2263104253450.11204085580616161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:01FORECAST2024230-5537.72422.85630.2993.8602620201630.0059055150.1259055153.313.435905515FF5.724257.724138439.2921780863341.2320789385910.11204085580616161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:01FORECAST2024230-5537.5822.69430.13793.8786844335290.0051181130.1251181133.313.435118113FF5.58257.58138439.2995996373941.2408684861340.10945996093721161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:03FORECAST2024230-5538.24623.23430.7493.9747378800780.0035433090.1235433093.313.433543309FF6.246258.246138439.3382895697941.2867006030030.12175929270991161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024230-5638.51623.03630.77693.8848857714090.0185039470.1285039473.313.438503947FF6.516258.516137438.6982792387441.1871378344430.1270114233378161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024230-5637.92223.10830.51595.9329317372990.0342519870.2042519873.313.514251987FF5.922255.922137439.5243020779942.1648548681320.11565996798908161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:01FORECAST2024230-5637.09422.83829.96695.955020978980.0342519870.2042519873.313.514251987FF5.094255.094137439.5331877623542.1754162526940.1010642811188161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024230-5636.98623.57630.28195.1189880422690.0311023790.2011023793.313.511102379FF4.986254.986137439.1965347709341.7759299390820.099263857889843161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2024230-5637.86824.22431.04695.0136422162930.0318897810.1818897813.313.491889781FF5.868255.868137439.1540634741.725627064370.11466482731452161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024230-5638.35423.75631.05595.3529184320680.0224409570.2124409573.313.522440957FF6.354257.354137439.2908056923141.8876603631360.12384159316435161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024230-5638.64224.06231.35290.9174948276340.0204724520.1504724523.313.460472452FF6.642256.642137437.493814901939.7758416534650.12951545588092161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024230-5638.89423.70231.29894.9507509078710.023622060.153622063.313.46362206FF6.894255.894137439.1287027457241.6956000709060.1346252948116161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024230-5638.40822.60430.50695.0000228801790.0185039470.1485039473.313.458503947FF6.408255.408137439.1485718587841.7191243743820.12489201036576161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024230-5638.98422.87430.92993.4034983623430.0547244390.1947244393.313.504724439FF6.984254.984137438.5035004147940.9577609828740.13648322993104161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024230-5640.92823.32432.12693.0011771099580.0460630170.1460630173.313.456063017FF8.928259.928137438.3405305175140.7661853131310.18088771883185161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024230-5641.12623.70232.41492.5567457891840.043307110.173307113.313.48330711FF9.126259.126137438.160309221340.5546923555060.1858686966379161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024230-5640.33425.30432.81995.7167468941180.1311024330.2811024333.313.591102433FF8.334259.334137439.4373125962342.0615100256050.16645165020028161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024230-5637.05825.71831.38898.7745802148220.1539370910.3139370913.313.623937091TF5.058254.058137440.6633086542643.52633332840.10046152282561161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024230-5637.56225.91631.73998.6449742666590.1736221410.2736221413.313.583622141FF5.562254.562137440.6115379547143.4641138231350.10914036638388161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024230-5636.5925.1630.87596.7756536647830.1527559880.2127559883.313.522755988FF4.59257.59137439.8629448644142.568024012170.092862321734987161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024230-5637.0426.02431.53296.7018862393790.1901575830.2401575833.313.550157583FF5.04258.04137439.8333308039642.5327127196920.10016112596017161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024230-5635.31226.11430.71396.6890695473660.1964567990.2564567993.313.566456799FF3.312256.312137439.8281849549942.5265779640040.074279032794595161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024230-5639.99229.51634.75487.5320351622120.035433090.055433093.313.36543309FF7.992264.992137436.1085237106638.1734666319820.15848632637549161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024230-5641.10828.434.75489.7022709856420.0047244120.0247244123.313.334724412FF9.108265.108137436.9979292501339.199706669760.18541240453413161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024230-5639.95626.79833.37789.659736758520.0173228440.0373228443.313.347322844FF7.956264.956137436.9805449442139.1795606282930.15766262197535161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024230-5636.33826.5131.42488.8306484776440.031496080.041496083.313.35149608FF4.338260.338137436.641310131738.7871307311280.088950183994317161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024230-5636.75227.5932.17188.7935323119560.0322834820.0422834823.313.352283482FF4.752261.752137436.6261067422738.7695743172630.095443355505633161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024230-5640.38829.1234.75488.1532977053540.0125984320.0225984323.323.342598432FF8.388268.388137436.3636304370538.4668930217060.16773250186245161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2024230-5641.8129.31835.56485.4259160.0145669370.0145669373.323.334566937FF9.81263.81137435.2406941281937.1808349763760.20371932865995161121122DRYL
2024-05-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024230-5643.55629.24636.40189.46259920.0145669370.0145669373.323.334566937FF11.556262.556137436.8999476652239.0862049084750.25366791834886162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024230-5641.48628.59835.04289.564884433180.0145669370.0145669373.323.334566937FF9.486261.486137436.9417707689239.1346392029480.1951399258585161121122DRYL
2024-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024230-5646.61629.94838.28287.2748047612790.0185039470.0185039473.333.348503947FF14.616268.616137436.0027802466338.05205752140.35452222503788162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024230-5647.46230.30838.88587.3724248165010.0185039470.0185039473.343.358503947FF15.462268.462137436.0429184856438.0981271121550.38475757250219162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024230-5647.98430.48839.23687.3633880231180.0188976480.0188976483.343.358897648FF15.984266.984137436.0392032637438.0938621080210.4037829998121162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024230-5640.17227.17633.67490.5959091106670.0125984320.0125984323.333.342598432FF8.172257.172137437.3627371565939.6232747838310.16264699847013161121122DRYL
2024-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024230-5640.4627.55434.00794.9902264273790.0125984320.0125984323.333.342598432FF8.46254.46137439.1446215994241.7144470400940.16945012485859161121122DRYL
2024-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024230-5639.34427.42833.38696.149807672360.0043307110.0043307113.323.324330711FF7.344241.344137439.6115216617342.2685632583290.14408932377813161121122DRYL
2024-05-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024230-5641.68426.90634.29593.9462543157090.133858340.133858343.313.44385834FF9.684246.684137438.7230930484941.2163912737080.20035655262362161122124DRYL
2024-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024230-5642.99828.1335.56494.4255414989610.1236221140.1236221143.313.433622114FF10.998242.998137438.9167554297941.4449523044250.23704091855093161122124DRYL
2024-05-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024230-5641.6328.59835.11494.3152261694350.1208662070.3108662073.313.620866207TF9.63241.63137438.8722019340241.3923309848850.19892560987267161122124DRYL
2024-05-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024230-5653.36627.39240.379107.3097863413600.123.313.43FF21.366254.366137444.0354246471147.6493465468750.60495505979471163122126DRYL
2024-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024230-5657.81231.9144.861111.4473160874100.023.313.33FF25.812255.812137445.6439703906749.6658244305760.754061832735164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024230-5656.49828.47242.485112.5604818190100.013.313.32FF24.498246.498137446.0738572986250.2102883043950.71323284915457164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024230-5654.82437.5846.202107.3878767989700.013.313.32FF22.824261.824137444.0659406225447.6872985221920.65700077010592163121123DRYL
2024-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024230-5656.08439.12847.606106.4456004108500.023.323.34FF24.084266.084137443.6973159960647.2296272018840.69973502625081164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024230-5655.41838.82247.12106.86656121086003.323.32FF23.418264.418137443.8621076238947.4340170935690.67744084329068163121123DRYL
2024-05-10 00:00:04FORECAST2024230-5653.79836.15844.978117.8319134910200.23.323.52FF21.798257.798137448.0931748572352.7996762156940.62062071452504163122126DRYL
2024-05-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024230-5651.18831.38841.288122.3721724802400.223.333.55FF19.188254.188137449.8108623457155.0443324304520.52388336193317163122126DRYL
2024-05-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024230-5659.52243.12451.323118.40800045306003.313.31FF27.522288.522137448.3122210246353.0837536701990.80215380213209164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024230-5659.52243.12451.323116.59468525306003.313.31FF27.522288.522137447.6216574643652.1903062645120.80215380213209164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024230-5659.32442.67450.999116.89677325306003.313.31FF27.324285.324137447.7369223383452.339001487610.79689402961658164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024230-5659.70243.59251.647116.82485490718003.313.31FF27.702286.702137447.7094891531652.3035961108840.80686342493794164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-09 00:00:04FORECAST2024230-5658.60442.4450.522122.15960016998003.273.27FF26.604269.604137449.7308824444454.9389447835040.77707745235657164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024230-5659.3636.84248.101124.16337948042003.273.27FF27.36272.36137450.4830880670155.9335026131740.79785649982238164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024230-5659.3636.84248.101124.45632306527003.33.3FF27.36270.36137450.5927367586156.0791152168950.79785649982238164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-08 12:00:04FORECAST2024230-5665.96647.01256.489120.6876882255003.323.32FF33.966290.966137449.1758922214454.2100000388350.927922283639165121124DRYL
2024-05-08 08:00:04FORECAST2024230-5661.57433.20647.39124.67224472109003.283.28FF29.574261.574137450.6735039521756.1864773740370.85171532215418165121124DRYL
2024-05-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024230-5661.32238.37249.847121.29334465839003.33.3FF29.322283.322137449.4045086383554.5097759573060.84611920203158164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-08 00:00:04FORECAST2024230-5647.35435.02441.189117.785663052770.0145669370.0145669372.932.944566937FF15.354259.354137448.0755750999352.7768787108960.38085403427485162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024230-5629.49827.8628.679118.437049371730.0586614490.2386614492.963.198661449FF-2.502225.498137448.3232578400453.0980838232960.022886335743238161122124DRYL
2024-05-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024230-5626.20419.47222.838121.420279313560.0578740470.2478740472.953.197874047FF-5.796204.204137449.4523779554.5726332688320.010406483300961161122124DRYL
2024-05-07 12:00:04FORECAST2024230-5622.26220.4821.371129.878306674070.3271655310.59716553133.597165531TF-9.738200.262137452.607523078258.7838986853410.0036015960367898161123126DRYL
2024-05-07 08:00:04FORECAST2024230-5653.72647.44450.585116.86073963106002.972.97FF21.726261.726137447.7231779736452.321261727970.61802271266963163121123DRYL
2024-05-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024230-5650.66649.42450.045117.64164754348002.912.91FF18.666255.666137448.0207593909952.7059002684390.504173195206163121123DRYL