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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 2, 2024

[ Wednesday, May 1, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, May 3, 2024 ]

DAY 215 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/03/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.93°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.511
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.45 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.76 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 122
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 56.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -71

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-03 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024215-7144.9626.9000635.93003126.7238279166700.452.763.21FF12.96122.96122442.8479031581 56.1193814730630.5109110887978516 3112125DRYL
2024-05-03 00:00:01FORECAST2024215-7039.36222.0130.686130.726483662760.0224409570.4724409572.763.232440957FF7.362117.362123444.99842350558.1730791402790.29119009986978162112124DRYL
2024-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2024215-7040.53223.10831.82130.650678155440.0173228440.4673228442.763.227322844FF8.532118.532123444.9689800852858.1354990062770.33386825858953162112124DRYL
2024-05-02 08:00:01FORECAST2024215-7040.8742331.937130.609196072930.0090551230.4590551232.763.219055123FF8.874118.874123444.952865737558.1149360843190.34679450099896162112124DRYL
2024-05-02 04:00:04FORECAST2024215-7040.60422.67631.64130.7199234754300.452.763.21FF8.604118.604123444.9958757037958.169826818880.33657388228347162112124DRYL
2024-05-02 00:00:02FORECAST2024215-7141.64822.4632.054131.654193945670.0094488240.4494488242.763.209448824FF9.648118.648122444.7775329586958.556827586820.37669423879845162112124DRYL
2024-05-01 20:00:01FORECAST2024215-7141.01821.99231.505131.633992045480.0007874020.4307874022.763.190787402FF9.018118.018122444.7696756105258.5468079413860.35229199352602162112124DRYL
2024-05-01 16:00:01FORECAST2024215-7141.61223.05432.333131.563439245480.0027559070.4327559072.763.192755907FF9.612118.612122444.7422315677558.5118175627630.37528539126779162112124DRYL
2024-05-01 12:00:01FORECAST2024215-7142.0822.87432.477131.577781352240.003937010.433937012.763.19393701FF10.08119.08122444.7478108429958.5189302119850.39372354463171162112124DRYL
2024-05-01 08:00:02FORECAST2024215-7140.5522.56831.559131.790638485820.0106299270.4806299272.763.240629927FF8.55117.55122444.8305912844658.6245076434040.33454386265829162112124DRYL
2024-05-01 04:00:04FORECAST2024215-7139.97422.87431.424132.01512067720.0287401730.4787401732.763.238740173FF7.974116.974122444.9178442519458.7358829003590.31320044154983162112124DRYL
2024-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2024215-714123.70232.351130.668502802980.0295275750.3195275752.763.079527575FF9118122444.3936867426958.0682577017640.35160308919624162112124DRYL
2024-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2024215-7141.88223.91832.9128.541335647790.0059055150.3759055152.763.135905515FF9.882118.882122443.5620467758657.0160579352390.38589102174114162112124DRYL
2024-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2024215-7141.19823.3632.279128.5978725733400.372.763.13FF9.198117.198122443.5842086997257.0439855459110.35920735999623162112124DRYL
2024-04-30 12:00:03FORECAST2024215-7140.74822.02831.388129.966700194020.0224409570.3924409572.763.152440957FF8.748116.748122444.1198056348357.7207856291670.34201045170506162112124DRYL
2024-04-30 08:00:03FORECAST2024215-7140.40623.03631.721130.895504702450.0527559340.6227559342.763.382755934FF8.406116.406122444.4821706417258.1807180573860.32915419229445162113126DRYL
2024-04-30 04:00:04FORECAST2024215-7141.1824.3532.765130.07806184270.0362204920.5062204922.763.266220492FF9.18121.18122444.163297532157.7759008846370.35851370040459162113126DRYL
2024-04-30 00:00:02FORECAST2024215-7139.95623.28831.622126.582084829910.0480315220.4980315222.63.098031522FF7.956118.956122442.7920700984356.0495433792090.31254295684591162113126DRYL
2024-04-29 20:00:03FORECAST2024215-7139.0223.77431.397123.028180753030.3003938630.6503938632.613.260393863FF7.02116.02122441.3855852291754.3028655613570.27921300868261162113126DRYL
2024-04-29 16:00:03FORECAST2024215-7139.68625.50232.594123.162471332340.3311025410.7111025412.613.321102541FF7.686118.686122441.4389628901854.3687136119390.30275310938404162113126DRYL
2024-04-29 12:00:03FORECAST2024215-7137.99425.46631.73125.587991542090.4141734520.7341734522.613.344173452FF5.994116.994122442.3999281781255.5601184382570.24478411154457161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-29 08:00:02FORECAST2024215-7136.53626.02431.28126.970470935670.5811026760.8811026762.743.621102676TF4.536114.536122442.9450087317656.2409363572760.20006589081574161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-29 04:00:05FORECAST2024215-7135.07825.32230.2127.240880784730.6759846170.9759846172.723.695984617TF3.078111.078122443.051401633856.3742505767940.1606436411982161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-29 00:00:03FORECAST2024215-7138.55225.35831.955125.728060956870.5681105430.9981105432.853.848110543TF6.552115.552122442.4552415802455.6290395840890.26322115795633162114128DRYL
2024-04-28 20:00:02FORECAST2024215-7138.76825.14231.955121.574952891060.3775592590.8375592592.93.737559259TF6.768115.768122440.8067918504453.5910649532760.27054361231653162113126DRYL
2024-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2024215-7137.6725.21431.442121.357549054410.3913387940.8213387942.883.701338794TF5.67112.67122440.7200201226753.4847014612990.23440605829535161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2024215-7135.76225.86230.812124.274076926150.5559058120.9759058122.873.845905812TF3.762112.762122441.8801041494754.9142420552040.17846315181799161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-28 08:00:02FORECAST2024215-7134.80825.57430.191124.672655014030.6059058391.0659058392.773.835905839TF2.808106.808122442.0379769455655.1100482028350.15394029750248161114126DRYL
2024-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2024215-7136.8625.82631.343125.449071834030.6007877261.2107877262.84.010787726TF4.86109.86122442.3450493540955.4917758718490.20955593736095161114126WETL
2024-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2024215-7136.35625.1630.758128.503228693850.3047245741.3647245742.654.014724574TF4.356108.356122443.5471074257156.997235382020.1949069224898161114126WETL
2024-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2024215-7136.5925.4331.01125.86047055550.204724521.254724522.653.90472452TF4.59109.59122442.5075120302455.6942036884690.20162941221683161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024215-7137.25625.37631.316125.075423980380.2393702081.1993702082.63.799370208TF5.256111.256122442.1973474312555.3080207129630.22150650998244161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 12:00:03FORECAST2024215-7138.10225.01631.559126.807830777860.1342520411.3342520412.523.854252041TF6.102111.102122442.8809826711456.1607767052970.24829755051921161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2024215-7139.45225.12432.288125.666937554930.102362261.102362262.593.69236226TF7.452108.452122442.4311063731455.5989622169520.29438133571904162114128DRYL
2024-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2024215-7142.29627.06834.682122.819658832250.0724409840.5724409842.683.252440984FF10.296114.296122441.3026660887854.2006428907880.40231730704005162113126DRYL
2024-04-27 00:00:03FORECAST2024215-7140.26229.40834.835117.189768497970.129921330.399921332.73.09992133FF8.262116.262122439.0472488033451.4518454469350.32379977571917162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2024215-7138.71428.88633.8116.769813920.153543390.443543392.593.03354339FF6.714111.714122438.8777126107751.2476688351970.26870351201771162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2024215-7138.04828.38233.215116.653549070770.1515748850.4215748852.562.981574885FF6.048109.048122438.8307443721951.1911637723860.24653748305352161112123DRYL
2024-04-26 12:00:03FORECAST2024215-7134.98827.01431.001117.249234606510.1921260880.4821260882.482.962126088FF2.988108.988122439.0712407329351.4807669136660.1583883765468161112123DRYL
2024-04-26 08:00:03FORECAST2024215-7135.29428.47231.883118.471113194810.2409450120.8509450122.423.270945012FF3.294114.294122439.563413020752.075566860270.16614119297845161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-26 04:00:05FORECAST2024215-7135.49228.16631.829119.155386669160.2354331980.8554331982.463.315433198TF3.492112.492122439.8383716422252.4091112449640.17128584365848161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2024215-7139.03828.74233.89124.626419288180.3515749930.7915749932.833.621574993TF7.038125.038122442.0196716305455.0873289302510.27983737450446162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2024215-7137.05826.36631.712117.909182043070.4629923760.6129923762.783.392992376FF5.058122.058122439.3372570401651.8018966186520.21548326218617161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024215-7135.56425.26830.416119.350847441130.5173231140.6573231142.863.517323114TF3.564116.564122439.9168250793652.5044458768340.17318154892418161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024215-7137.52627.71632.621117.621681869110.1881890780.3981890782.743.138189078FF5.526123.526122439.2214242387351.6619626319070.22987280998882161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2024215-7135.9622.31629.138121.000171684050.1507874830.5607874832.813.370787483FF3.96123.96122440.5772770233453.3099261599170.18384485200405161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2024215-7135.85221.93828.895120.994139915670.1515748850.5715748852.683.251574885FF3.852119.852122440.5748667119453.3069770662710.18089699134279161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2024215-7137.65226.43832.045118.690774439420.0212598540.2712598542.52.771259854FF5.652114.652122439.6517306263552.1826043916740.2338367152691161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:04FORECAST2024215-7137.52625.77231.649121.65966050570.1551181940.3551181942.562.915118194FF5.526117.526122440.8405879715553.6325162697520.22987280998882161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2024215-7137.4925.89831.694121.138686474710.1311024330.2711024332.582.851102433FF5.49112.49122440.6326177586353.3776565331950.22874720198987161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2024215-7138.87624.5331.703120.886755992120.0744094890.2844094892.652.934409489FF6.876122.876122440.5319496164653.2544783000160.27424257443851162112124DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024215-7135.70824.4430.074121.704867007230.0759842930.6059842932.573.175984293FF3.708117.708122440.8586212068453.654639862970.17701277369822161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:05FORECAST2024215-7135.622.92829.264121.781713072020.0783464990.6383464992.53.138346499FF3.6109.6122440.889270965953.6922506933010.17413438069318161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2024215-7135.72623.9929.858129.097029847530.2153544470.8353544472.193.025354447FF3.72697.726122443.7797354616657.2906457546210.1774954053462161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 20:00:03FORECAST2024215-7140.96424.13432.549129.691457515560.3948821030.5148821032.452.964882103FF8.964111.964122444.0122577885957.5845968673760.35022674282821162113126DRYL
2024-04-23 16:00:04FORECAST2024215-7140.96425.3433.152129.940734289030.3944884020.5144884022.462.974488402FF8.964108.964122444.1096629738957.707935711680.35022674282821162113126DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2024215-7138.5727.26632.918127.810028458120.350393890.490393892.12.59039389FF6.57104.57122443.2750944732456.6550024394030.26382747874125162113126DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:03FORECAST2024215-7137.56226.65432.108126.295036985160.2188977560.4388977562.062.498897756FF5.562105.562122442.6789394332455.9081530282740.23100150674557161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024215-7137.65226.38432.018123.564925517170.2192914570.4192914571.92.319291457FF5.652101.652122441.5988209039754.5661254134680.2338367152691161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:04FORECAST2024215-7128.77824.94426.861126.6902123770600.182.472.65FF-3.22291.778122442.8346637067456.1028175929310.050219413281904161112123DRYL
2024-04-22 20:00:04FORECAST2024215-7131.123.73827.419126.588135054900.112.282.39FF-0.9100.1122442.7944537123256.0525241080940.080367713833185161112123DRYL
2024-04-22 16:00:03FORECAST2024215-7128.7624.27826.519128.159216603900.122.222.34FF-3.2489.76122443.4121763601856.8273571549510.050026931836219161112123DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:04FORECAST2024215-7128.7623.73826.249126.5182772319500.291.992.28FF-3.2494.76122442.7669295175556.0181091378430.050026931836219161112123DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:04FORECAST2024215-7131.0128.7629.885127.7196279235200.42.052.45FF-0.9998.01122443.2395858344256.6103949837490.078989075380305161112123DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024215-7124.54823.59424.071127.546441223600.412.032.44FF-7.45285.548122443.1715366463956.5249523508420.01871894563942161112123DRYL