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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 18, 2024

[ Wednesday, April 17, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, April 19, 2024 ]

DAY 201 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/19/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.577
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 137

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.48 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 122 in
SWE DAY: 108
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 52.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -85

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-19 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024201-8543.0399428.4399635.73995122.49319333333002.482.48FF11.03994137.03994108432.60909519722 52.9916695357510.5773120520559316 3111122.5DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:01FORECAST2024201-8438.44419.9429.192124.784996002.482.48FF6.444132.444109434.1917627695554.1806173804310.38859496923343162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:01FORECAST2024201-8437.45421.48829.471124.8319328002.482.48FF5.454131.454109434.2112788157854.2034331781340.34976689127353162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024201-8438.42621.61430.02124.7827328002.482.48FF6.426132.426109434.1908216854654.1795172865890.38787760719536162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024201-8438.58823.03630.812124.76509963333002.482.48FF6.588132.588109434.1834892747454.1709462985110.39434735173925162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:01FORECAST2024201-8539.43421.8330.632125.634444002.482.48FF7.434129.434108433.9226670990554.5156330199870.42856965617799162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024201-8539.54222.130.821125.7311712002.482.48FF7.542127.542108433.9629492638654.5626698683520.43298317297139162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:01FORECAST2024201-8538.94821.7430.344125.752524002.482.48FF6.948126.948108433.97184033154.5730542665480.40882685486178162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:01FORECAST2024201-8538.69623.21630.956125.7069648002.482.48FF6.696126.696108433.952869406454.5508980793290.3986768828836162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024201-8539.1123.97231.541125.660028002.482.48FF7.11127.11108433.9333225508954.5280734618780.4153847328707162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:03FORECAST2024201-8538.55224.6231.586125.74662443333002.482.48FF6.552128.552108433.9693838656254.5701851285160.3929070409489162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024201-8537.6723.39630.533124.8160507395800.032.482.51FF5.67124.67108433.5814497964654.1179242375350.3581215965292162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024201-8538.98423.82831.406124.574616800.032.482.51FF6.984125.984108433.4806518225354.0006860910060.41028202618457162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024201-8538.08423.70230.893124.639560800.032.482.51FF6.084124.084108433.5077718330254.0322182846540.37432298147491162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024201-8538.58823.77431.181124.7193070660100.032.482.51FF6.588124.588108433.5410670133954.0709414625690.39434735173925162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024201-8538.51624.0831.298124.6755765798100.022.482.5FF6.516124.516108433.5228097594854.0497062672640.39146819451414162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024201-8537.97624.51231.244125.1915451235700.032.482.51FF5.976121.976108433.7380948437154.3003422724390.37007374989328162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:01FORECAST2024201-8539.16424.27831.721124.7493456206300.032.472.5FF7.164125.164108433.5536067811654.0855287374120.41757603613523162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:01FORECAST2024201-8539.05624.96232.009124.8522709118100.062.472.53FF7.056127.056108433.5965662824254.1355159599240.41319605776861162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024201-8537.54424.11630.83124.9077071695600.052.472.52FF5.544123.544108433.6196999071354.162442498950.35323946344425162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:01FORECAST2024201-8537.74224.4431.091124.6930697717400.012.472.48FF5.742123.742108433.5301133208354.0582006684660.36092189470683162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:01FORECAST2024201-8537.16623.50430.335124.6873832002.472.47FF5.166123.166108433.5277391627654.0554393408160.33874002760881162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2024201-8538.69624.831.748125.02252938333002.472.47FF6.696125.696108433.6676050115254.2182208901520.3986768828836162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024201-8538.1224.83631.478125.7583888002.472.47FF6.12122.12108433.9742822837254.5759065206370.37574281926544162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024201-8539.8325.19632.513127.6490939330500.022.472.49FF7.83123.83108434.7596303976355.4966728989250.44479201718028162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024201-8538.24623.86431.055127.7610493794800.032.472.5FF6.246122.246108434.8060155125155.5512728183870.38072539449075162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024201-8538.51623.59431.055126.8540336002.472.47FF6.516122.516108434.4298431658255.10917792180.39146819451414162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024201-8539.36223.4531.406126.8474678502300.012.472.48FF7.362122.362108434.4271169505655.1059797506550.42563223080316162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024201-8539.14623.6331.388127.0730521739500.032.472.5FF7.146122.146108434.5207574969455.2158788880740.41684531376549162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024201-8542.81824.24233.53129.1244173263800.012.472.48FF10.818126.818108435.3698257857856.2168750760780.56825714519345163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024201-8542.51224.76433.638131.4304216002.472.47FF10.512121.512108436.3190232301857.3455931752430.5557146176876163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024201-8541.91826.634.259131.3431408002.472.47FF9.918120.918108436.2831978502357.3028054839180.53121861144069163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024201-8541.4525.89833.674130.3664224002.472.47FF9.45117.45108435.8817506628556.8243444233640.51183041048908163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024201-8543.9726.22235.096130.1624392002.472.47FF11.97120.97108435.7977844501256.7245026219830.61476254062473163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2024201-8540.7327.15833.944129.77056748333002.472.47FF8.73121.73108435.6363550090756.5327770058970.48196383734228162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024201-8539.05627.21233.134129.894496002.472.47FF7.056113.056108435.6874240667256.5933983626850.41319605776861162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024201-8542.69229.01235.852131.3074721516800.032.472.5FF10.692114.692108436.2685549686257.2853211321960.56310016106875163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024201-8540.40626.61833.512131.2988216002.472.47FF8.406112.406108436.2650034986457.2810808646910.46854683969488162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024201-8540.1925.73632.963131.0030291128400.012.482.49FF8.19112.19108436.143519407357.136122170290.45962103782764162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024201-8539.39825.14232.27131.8362632433200.072.552.62FF7.398104.398108436.4855011839857.5446174359850.42710043828928162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024201-8539.05623.931.478131.935021825100.072.552.62FF7.056103.056108436.525986416157.5930655450310.41319605776861162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024201-8536.26621.77629.021137.5209467093600.162.672.83FF4.26691.266108438.799434871460.3441136990490.30519618158261162112124DRYL
2024-04-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024201-8536.75222.47829.615138.6045177105500.242.72.94FF4.75286.752108439.2367205980660.8801938192560.32312996739221162112124DRYL
2024-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024201-8539.00222.83830.92138.4101037633800.242.72.94FF7.00290.002108439.1583515096560.7839530010060.41101007659459162112124DRYL
2024-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024201-8539.70422.92831.316137.608838826400.132.72.83FF7.70488.704108438.8349494681560.3875678327540.43961898078809162112124DRYL
2024-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024201-8540.38823.37831.883137.5267031084600.022.812.83FF8.38889.388108438.8017611041260.3469595228370.46780235613438162111122DRYL
2024-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024201-8539.68622.98231.334137.53443857700.022.862.88FF7.68690.686108438.8048870499460.3507837852560.43888079526121162111122DRYL
2024-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024201-8540.38825.86233.125143.8925511308500.252.662.91FF8.38882.388108441.3535748773163.5074918398160.46780235613438162112124DRYL
2024-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024201-8541.46825.6133.539143.9291631859600.152.672.82FF9.46883.468108441.3681321757463.5257459210060.51257692231787163112125DRYL
2024-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024201-8538.37223.34230.857143.9306605706600.142.642.78FF6.37277.372108441.3687275212163.5264925073590.3857278243256162112124DRYL
2024-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024201-8542.63824.96233.8142.9221944777300.112.622.73FF10.63889.638108440.967258096863.0240082200240.56088668558598163112125DRYL
2024-04-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024201-8533.47621.3827.428144.1025349196300.052.712.76FF1.47664.476108441.4370480318963.6121976288330.21193083521472161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024201-8532.61220.6626.636145.0764716276700.112.712.82FF0.61257.612108441.8236276060464.0982129748220.18683022195999161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024201-8536.96821.90229.435143.6891592599500.032.862.89FF4.96875.968108441.2726796967363.4061003500080.33123771058412162111122DRYL
2024-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024201-8539.77624.04431.91139.5493899566500.042.842.88FF7.77681.776108439.6170520065961.3482914220580.44257379740116162111122DRYL
2024-04-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024201-8538.08424.29631.19139.3916965951800.062.782.84FF6.08480.084108439.5536404758461.2701276905130.37432298147491162111122DRYL
2024-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024201-8535.27622.69428.985141.19805093340.0578740470.1878740472.642.827874047FF3.27682.276108440.2784916140262.1664648837980.270107329945162112124DRYL
2024-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024201-8541.91822.13632.027140.4171073526800.122.712.83FF9.91887.918108439.9655238125961.7786861886690.53121861144069163112125DRYL
2024-04-09 04:00:06FORECAST2024201-8541.91822.33432.126139.6901528375300.122.722.84FF9.91892.918108439.6736340148261.4180771341620.53121861144069163112125DRYL
2024-04-09 00:00:04FORECAST2024201-8529.89423.93626.915143.3281231273600.012.522.53FF-2.10687.894108441.1289815891163.2261889882490.12048473185637161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-08 20:00:04FORECAST2024201-8527.62624.54826.087140.9021658792100.152.52.65FF-4.37487.626108440.1599869533162.0194954950860.079436932039001161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024201-8530.09225.37627.734139.9658326007500.152.442.59FF-1.90895.092108439.7843895433761.5547882472530.12467119738872161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024201-8527.87822.13625.007146.9244068667500.592.933.52TF-4.12280.878108442.5544953394665.0220567339630.083393583498395161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2024201-8533.24228.72430.983144.28294651561002.832.83FF1.24282.242108441.5087300430863.7021804829810.20494544980883161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024201-8532.21632.12632.171144.45080385593002.762.76FF0.21676.216108441.575394444163.7859206904490.17596656057225161111121.5DRYL