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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 13, 2022

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DAY 13 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/14/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 70.76°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 54.75°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 62.75°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.984 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 39 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 623 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.35 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.35 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 81 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 347.91 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 93 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 4 D₂: 5 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 70.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-14 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2023	13	93	70.75994	54.75002	62.75498	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.75994	622.75994	81	347.90530640596	0.98431901616926	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	13	93	55.89	55.89	55.89	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	23.89	607.89	80	346.95351932015	0.75358997593744	16	4	4	5	1	5	2	32.5	DRY	L
2022-10-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.59	58.72	65.155	0.0007	0.0007	0.35	0.3507	F	F	39.59	623.59	80	346.95351932015	0.98727851117324	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-13 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.91	54.96	63.435	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	39.91	623.91	80	346.95351932015	0.98828318100603	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	13	93	67.76	56.18	61.97	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	35.76	619.76	80	346.95351932015	0.96825562800413	16	5	4	5	1	5	2	35	DRY	L
2022-10-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.32	55.97	63.645	0.0001	0.0001	0.35	0.3501	F	F	39.32	609.32	81	347.90530640596	0.98637375844982	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.02	56.51	63.765	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	39.02	622.02	81	347.90530640596	0.98530397485516	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	13	93	70.83	56.47	63.65	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.83	621.83	81	347.90530640596	0.98458977375512	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	70.82	56.37	63.595	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.82	621.82	81	347.90530640596	0.9845513740601	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	70.91	56.55	63.73	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.91	620.91	81	347.90530640596	0.98489403682831	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-12 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	13	93	70.54	56.49	63.515	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.54	616.54	81	347.90530640596	0.98344240141131	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	70.6	55.99	63.295	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.6	611.6	81	347.90530640596	0.98368559982252	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	70.05	55.71	62.88	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.05	622.05	81	347.90530640596	0.9813378739793	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	13	93	70.13	55.65	62.89	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.13	622.13	81	347.90530640596	0.98169624784911	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	70.27	55.69	62.98	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38.27	622.27	81	347.90530640596	0.98230932649373	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	69.98	55.25	62.615	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.98	621.98	81	347.90530640596	0.98101942456986	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2023	13	93	70	55.16	62.58	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	38	617	81	347.90530640596	0.98111087730776	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-11 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	13	93	69.59	55.04	62.315	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	37.59	602.59	81	347.90530640596	0.97915958169133	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.08	55.11	63.095	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	39.08	622.08	81	347.90530640596	0.98552352359692	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-10 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	13	93	69.68	53.86	61.77	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	37.68	620.68	81	347.90530640596	0.97960191025849	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	67.1	54.08	60.59	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	35.1	617.1	81	347.90530640596	0.96331623244512	16	5	4	5	1	5	2	35	DRY	L
2022-10-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	13	93	67.08	54.05	60.565	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	35.08	616.08	81	347.90530640596	0.9631572831634	16	5	4	5	1	5	2	35	DRY	L
2022-10-10 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.14	54.82	63.48	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	40.14	617.14	81	347.90530640596	0.98896212278955	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-10 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.02	55.55	63.785	0	0	0.39	0.39	F	F	40.02	617.02	81	347.90530640596	0.98861228113656	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-09 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.02	55.28	63.65	0	0	0.39	0.39	F	F	40.02	628.02	81	347.90530640596	0.98861228113656	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-09 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.73	56.68	64.705	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	40.73	623.73	81	347.90530640596	0.99054964902223	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-09 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.64	56.95	64.795	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	40.64	625.64	81	347.90530640596	0.99032118432067	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-09 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	13	93	69.38	56.49	62.935	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	37.38	616.38	81	347.90530640596	0.97809588789369	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-09 04:00:04	FORECAST	2023	13	93	69.34	56.49	62.915	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	37.34	630.34	81	347.90530640596	0.9778881784519	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-09 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.3	54.22	62.76	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	39.3	618.3	81	347.90530640596	0.98630458714438	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.87	54.84	63.355	0	0.01	0.38	0.39	F	F	39.87	634.87	81	347.90530640596	0.98816148065721	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-08 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.83	54.84	63.335	0	0.01	0.37	0.38	F	F	39.83	633.83	81	347.90530640596	0.98803868657464	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-08 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	13	93	69.87	53.81	61.84	0	0.01	0.37	0.38	F	F	37.87	626.87	81	347.90530640596	0.98050969064572	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	13	93	69.83	53.81	61.82	0	0.01	0.37	0.38	F	F	37.83	623.83	81	347.90530640596	0.98032147818319	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-08 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.66	56.85	64.755	0	0.01	0.37	0.38	F	F	40.66	626.66	81	347.90530640596	0.99037236676043	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.51	55.76	64.135	0	0.01	0.37	0.38	F	F	40.51	619.51	81	347.90530640596	0.98998267288404	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.02	56.22	64.12	0	0.02	0.37	0.39	F	F	40.02	629.02	81	347.90530640596	0.98861228113656	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-07 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.99	56.24	64.115	0	0.01	0.38	0.39	F	F	39.99	629.99	81	347.90530640596	0.98852333175654	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-07 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	13	93	71.09	54.71	62.9	0	0.01	0.38	0.39	F	F	39.09	632.09	81	347.90530640596	0.9855598396626	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.59	56.5	64.545	0	0	0.39	0.39	F	F	40.59	634.59	81	347.90530640596	0.99019218784629	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-07 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	13	93	72.56	56.5	64.53	0	0	0.4	0.4	F	F	40.56	634.56	81	347.90530640596	0.99011407207588	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-07 00:00:09	FORECAST	2023	13	93	73.45	57	65.225	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	41.45	618.45	81	347.90530640596	0.99221386221336	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2023	13	93	74.3	57.65	65.975	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	42.3	633.3	81	347.90530640596	0.99384237459419	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-06 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	13	93	74.27	57.65	65.96	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	42.27	629.27	81	347.90530640596	0.99379048156219	16	5	4	5	1	5	1	70	DRY	H
2022-10-06 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	13	93	63.59	53.65	58.62	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	31.59	609.59	81	347.90530640596	0.92564353155742	16	5	4	5	1	5	2	35	DRY	L
2022-10-06 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	13	93	54.05	53.11	53.58	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	22.05	596.05	81	347.90530640596	0.69315303860183	16	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2022-10-06 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	13	93	54.05	53.58	53.815	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	22.05	597.05	81	347.90530640596	0.69315303860183	16	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L