Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 29, 2022

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DAY 121 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/30/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.57°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.90°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.24°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.803 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 230 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 99 in SWE DAY: 29 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 360.89 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 35.66 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -163 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-30 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	121	-163	42.56996	33.90008	38.23502	98.800655416667	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	10.56996	229.56996	29	360.89386491023	35.656550388984	0.80282959458132	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-30 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	121	-163	42.56996	33.90008	38.23502	98.800655416667	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	10.56996	229.56996	29	360.89386491023	35.656550388984	0.80282959458132	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-29 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	43.89	32.04	37.965	98.610008	0.0041	0.0041	5.19	5.1941	T	F	11.89	230.89	29	360.77906821487	35.576426802901	0.83396799471241	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-29 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	41.34	32.09	36.715	98.856681916667	0.0062	0.0062	5.19	5.1962	T	F	9.34	228.34	29	360.92759021603	35.680103980935	0.77085546661239	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-29 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	39.53	33.18	36.355	98.77971125	0.0054	0.0054	5.19	5.1954	T	F	7.53	226.53	29	360.88125627903	35.64774629078	0.71892962902395	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-28 23:00:01	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	42.38	32.88	37.63	99.440650666667	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	10.38	229.38	29	361.27882624493	35.925801553885	0.79807510650967	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-28 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	42.29	32	37.145	99.500292	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	10.29	229.29	29	361.3146690318	35.950915072548	0.79579879785838	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-28 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	41.95	32.76	37.355	99.464430666667	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	9.95	228.95	29	361.29311801614	35.935814287261	0.78706280921568	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-28 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	42.15	32.89	37.52	98.788805333333	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	10.15	229.15	29	360.88673110504	35.651569026519	0.79222771501599	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-28 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	42.39	32.74	37.565	98.527867083333	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	10.39	227.39	29	360.72959063363	35.541917158976	0.79832709054971	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-28 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	42.65	32.86	37.755	98.449803083333	0.0002	0.0002	5.19	5.1902	T	F	10.65	224.65	29	360.6825592151	35.50912693032	0.80481249726849	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	43.03	32.98	38.005	99.501641333333	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	11.03	222.03	29	361.31547988089	35.95148328729	0.81406050185358	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	43.19	33	38.095	99.463648	0.0008	0.0008	5.19	5.1908	T	F	11.19	222.19	29	361.2926476475	35.935484730599	0.81787191863732	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	43.79	33.8	38.795	99.369184	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	11.79	222.79	29	361.23586960875	35.895713594552	0.83172643442878	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	44.39	32.77	38.58	99.158334666667	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	12.39	223.39	29	361.10908845823	35.806975844517	0.84488560352021	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	44.57	32.88	38.725	98.713263583333	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	12.57	223.57	29	360.84124957312	35.619817380851	0.84869750561999	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	45.04	33.08	39.06	98.78088625	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	13.04	219.04	29	360.88196366041	35.648240202016	0.85835561283898	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-26 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	45.45	32.38	38.915	99.004885333333	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	13.45	221.45	29	361.0167785349	35.742424762257	0.86643332957963	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-26 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	46.06	31.83	38.945	98.970609333333	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	14.06	222.06	29	360.99615433751	35.728009361773	0.87785692315757	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-26 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	44.45	30.42	37.435	99.292104	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	12.45	218.45	29	361.18953021188	35.86326839751	0.84616320264804	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	39.48	31.38	35.43	98.821041333333	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	7.48	214.48	29	360.9061368243	35.665120264567	0.71741853898693	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-26 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	44.42	28.34	36.38	99.046696666667	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	12.42	209.42	29	361.04193438355	35.760010958835	0.84552527387178	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-26 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	44.45	28.37	36.41	99.016520666667	0	0	5.2	5.2	T	F	12.45	214.45	29	361.02377921816	35.747318496113	0.84616320264804	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	43.26	28.78	36.02	100.16908762659	0.0059	0.0059	5.2	5.2059	T	F	11.26	202.26	29	361.71622504149	36.232784242141	0.81952398032723	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	43.3	28.82	36.06	99.929591584355	0.0059	0.0059	5.2	5.2059	T	F	11.3	212.3	29	361.57250603081	36.131792855791	0.82046379120075	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	43.61	30.32	36.965	100.11565708162	0.01	0.03	5.2	5.23	T	F	11.61	211.61	29	361.68416951971	36.210248287485	0.82764293858036	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	42.06	30.99	36.525	99.879808	0.0003	0.0003	5.2	5.2003	T	F	10.06	201.06	29	361.54262045782	36.110807515144	0.7899127050079	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	37.21	30.87	34.04	99.694004416667	0.0002	0.0002	5.19	5.1902	T	F	5.21	198.21	29	361.43104736984	36.032508432809	0.6450684005151	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	42	29.61	35.805	99.526232416667	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	10	209	29	361.33025680831	35.961839118277	0.78836099807897	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-24 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	46.39	28.96	37.675	100.66622533333	0.0046	0.0046	5.2	5.2046	T	F	14.39	212.39	29	362.01427310984	36.442610390758	0.88374349057315	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-24 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	46.43	30.65	38.54	100.69826	0.0049	0.0049	5.2	5.2049	T	F	14.43	211.43	29	362.03346589139	36.456140077033	0.88444313909104	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-24 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	46.16	31.66	38.91	100.95595866667	0.0049	0.0049	5.2	5.2049	T	F	14.16	209.16	29	362.18780290291	36.565016859437	0.87966235130895	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-24 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	45.97	30.67	38.32	100.692028	0	0	5.2	5.2	T	F	13.97	205.97	29	362.02973226443	36.453507938003	0.87621590059584	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-24 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	45.79	30.78	38.285	100.43650083333	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	13.79	201.79	29	361.87659356983	36.34561879164	0.87288784427161	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-24 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	45.76	31.29	38.525	100.32738616667	0	0	5.2	5.2	T	F	13.76	207.76	29	361.81117032127	36.299569004236	0.87232718909054	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-23 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	44.55	31.62	38.085	101.18734533333	0	0	5.2	5.2	T	F	12.55	209.55	29	362.32629547668	36.662835983746	0.84827705613013	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-23 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	44.58	31.67	38.125	101.02378266667	0	0	5.2	5.2	T	F	12.58	208.58	29	362.22840624329	36.593683788015	0.84890744027329	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-23 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	43.88	31.73	37.805	101.18576	0	0	5.2	5.2	T	F	11.88	203.88	29	362.32534687914	36.66216559123	0.83374470866605	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-23 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	39.77	32.09	35.93	100.89593643462	0.1362	0.2062	5.2	5.4062	T	F	7.77	196.77	29	362.15186431409	36.539651481515	0.72612808402678	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-23 07:00:09	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	36.85	32.31	34.58	101.49303647554	0.2413	0.4013	5.2	5.6013	T	F	4.85	185.85	29	362.50913698217	36.792153062448	0.63300520791403	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-23 03:00:09	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	36.87	32.36	34.615	101.30449838464	0.2413	0.4013	5.19	5.5913	T	F	4.87	187.87	29	362.39638442089	36.712383940165	0.63367896983178	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-22 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	41.2	30.24	35.72	98.838390666667	0.0034	0.0034	5.2	5.2034	T	F	9.2	202.2	29	360.91658027543	35.672413959341	0.76704062246418	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-22 19:00:05	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	40.61	29.59	35.1	98.949418666667	0	0	5.2	5.2	T	F	8.61	201.61	29	360.98340281226	35.719097856588	0.75058317268289	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-22 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	40.69	29.62	35.155	99.116972	0	0	5.2	5.2	T	F	8.69	199.69	29	361.08420962036	35.789573494583	0.75285025629588	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-22 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	32.93	30.3	31.615	99.12631171445	0.1662	0.1662	5.2	5.3662	T	F	0.93	190.93	29	361.08982750504	35.793502798182	0.49562202759256	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-22 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	34.61	32.06	33.335	98.328859416667	0.0487	0.0487	5.19	5.2387	T	F	2.61	187.61	29	360.60967555526	35.458338091963	0.55542002683388	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-01-22 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	121	-163	34.91	33.14	34.025	98.138674083333	0.0132	0.0132	5.2	5.2132	T	F	2.91	188.91	29	360.49501984988	35.378503261712	0.56600570945681	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L