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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 27, 2021

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DAY 331 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/28/2021 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 44.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 38.84°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 41.65°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.051 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 524 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.10 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.35 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 238 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.23 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 46 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-28 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2021	331	46	44.45006	38.84	41.64503	0.019999999999982	0.099999999999982	0.35	0.44999999999998	F	F	12.45006	524.45006	238	460.23272928919	0.051398279664075	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-28 00:00:01	FORECAST	2021	331	46	44.66	44.66	44.66	0.0004	0.0804	0.35	0.4304	F	F	12.66	524.66	239	460.75487221801	0.05363579782725	95	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-27 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	331	46	52.09	44.03	48.06	0.0063	0.0863	0.35	0.4363	F	F	20.09	532.09	239	460.75487221801	0.19122953437652	95	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-27 08:00:01	FORECAST	2021	331	46	52.44	43.02	47.73	0.0171	0.0971	0.35	0.4471	F	F	20.44	532.44	239	460.75487221801	0.20082155612029	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	331	46	52.44	42.7	47.57	0.0239	0.1039	0.35	0.4539	F	F	20.44	532.44	239	460.75487221801	0.20082155612029	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	51.64	42.06	46.85	0.0488	0.0488	0.35	0.3988	F	F	19.64	524.64	238	460.23272928919	0.17931688693654	95	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-26 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	331	46	51.71	42.46	47.085	0.0433	0.1433	0.35	0.4933	F	F	19.71	531.71	238	460.23272928919	0.18113875190591	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-26 16:00:01	FORECAST	2021	331	46	51.92	43.16	47.54	0.0509	0.1509	0.35	0.5009	F	F	19.92	531.92	238	460.23272928919	0.18667342876033	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	52.04	42.97	47.505	0.0581	0.1581	0.35	0.5081	F	F	20.04	532.04	238	460.23272928919	0.18988249495288	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-26 08:00:01	FORECAST	2021	331	46	52.17	42.41	47.29	0.0682	0.1682	0.35	0.5182	F	F	20.17	530.17	238	460.23272928919	0.19339691882019	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-26 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	331	46	51.88	42.18	47.03	0.0429	0.1529	0.35	0.5029	F	F	19.88	528.88	238	460.23272928919	0.18561122846654	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	51.63	42.21	46.92	0.0453	0.1553	0.35	0.5053	F	F	19.63	514.63	238	460.23272928919	0.17905756212124	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	51.79	42.36	47.075	0.0468	0.1768	0.35	0.5268	F	F	19.79	530.79	238	460.23272928919	0.18323499372989	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	52.6	42.48	47.54	0.0532	0.1332	0.35	0.4832	F	F	20.6	531.6	238	460.23272928919	0.20530078030186	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	52.63	42.59	47.61	0.0476	0.1476	0.35	0.4976	F	F	20.63	531.63	238	460.23272928919	0.20614718050583	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	52.98	42.78	47.88	0.0285	0.1485	0.35	0.4985	F	F	20.98	528.98	238	460.23272928919	0.21617347615541	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-25 04:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	51.97	42.19	47.08	0.064	0.174	0.35	0.524	F	F	19.97	524.97	238	460.23272928919	0.18800644736757	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	52.81	42.32	47.565	0.0526	0.1626	0.36	0.5226	F	F	20.81	517.81	238	460.23272928919	0.21126877970631	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-24 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	331	46	53.42	42.12	47.77	0.0753	0.2453	0.35	0.5953	F	F	21.42	531.42	238	460.23272928919	0.22916924603098	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	53.55	42.83	48.19	0.0887	0.2187	0.35	0.5687	F	F	21.55	531.55	238	460.23272928919	0.23309098057221	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	49.01	41.76	45.385	0.1016	0.2316	0.35	0.5816	F	F	17.01	530.01	238	460.23272928919	0.11925495287056	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-24 08:02:15	FORECAST	2021	331	46	47.28	42.03	44.655	0.1231	0.2431	0.35	0.5931	F	F	15.28	523.28	238	460.23272928919	0.088449169169396	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-24 04:11:41	FORECAST	2021	331	46	53.23	42.46	47.845	0.1341	0.2541	0.35	0.6041	F	F	21.23	529.23	238	460.23272928919	0.22350450582008	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-24 00:06:46	FORECAST	2021	331	46	56.54	44.51	50.525	0.0774	0.1774	0.35	0.5274	F	F	24.54	527.54	238	460.23272928919	0.33268929888698	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-23 20:03:22	FORECAST	2021	331	46	56.67	44.45	50.56	0.027	0.097	0.35	0.447	F	F	24.67	539.67	238	460.23272928919	0.33738088701407	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	57.42	45.27	51.345	0.0201	0.1001	0.35	0.4501	F	F	25.42	542.42	238	460.23272928919	0.36492335447114	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	56.36	44.41	50.385	0.0292	0.0892	0.35	0.4392	F	F	24.36	542.36	238	460.23272928919	0.32623637415117	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-23 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	51.83	45.27	48.55	0.0273	0.0573	0.35	0.4073	F	F	19.83	533.83	238	460.23272928919	0.18428875192643	95	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	331	46	58.22	44.31	51.265	0.0254	0.0554	0.35	0.4054	F	F	26.22	545.22	238	460.23272928919	0.39508678530436	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	57.43	45.08	51.255	0.0464	0.0764	0.36	0.4364	F	F	25.43	535.43	238	460.23272928919	0.36529571926606	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	56.95	44.6	50.775	0.0493	0.0893	0.38	0.4693	F	F	24.95	542.95	238	460.23272928919	0.347571282265	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	56.95	44.64	50.795	0.0493	0.0893	0.38	0.4693	F	F	24.95	543.95	238	460.23272928919	0.347571282265	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-22 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	331	46	57.82	43.57	50.695	0.0133	0.0233	0.38	0.4033	F	F	25.82	549.82	238	460.23272928919	0.37991377433845	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	60.04	44.85	52.445	0.0095	0.0295	0.39	0.4195	F	F	28.04	542.04	238	460.23272928919	0.46581035618569	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	331	46	60.07	43.46	51.765	0.0095	0.0295	0.39	0.4195	F	F	28.07	549.07	238	460.23272928919	0.46699165893918	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	63.25	46.83	55.04	0.0111	0.0111	0.36	0.3711	F	F	31.25	559.25	238	460.23272928919	0.59179272391764	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-08-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	65.02	46	55.51	0	0	0.36	0.36	F	F	33.02	570.02	238	460.23272928919	0.65817493441599	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-08-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	65.02	45.99	55.505	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	33.02	571.02	238	460.23272928919	0.65817493441599	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-08-21 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	331	46	69.39	47.75	58.57	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	37.39	577.39	238	460.23272928919	0.7996647827779	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	67.82	46.88	57.35	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	35.82	567.82	238	460.23272928919	0.75328524022159	95	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2021-08-21 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	331	46	67.85	46.88	57.365	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	35.85	579.85	238	460.23272928919	0.75422214363872	95	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2021-08-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	331	46	68.05	45.4	56.725	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.05	572.05	238	460.23272928919	0.76041913594921	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	67.95	45.88	56.915	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	35.95	589.95	238	460.23272928919	0.75733133265774	95	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2021-08-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	66.86	45.88	56.37	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	34.86	585.86	238	460.23272928919	0.72232364329224	95	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2021-08-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	63.13	48.54	55.835	0	0.01	0.34	0.35	F	F	31.13	589.13	238	460.23272928919	0.58717049232053	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-08-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	331	46	48.64	46.48	47.56	0.0024	0.0124	0.33	0.3424	F	F	16.64	562.64	238	460.23272928919	0.11210293377138	95	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-20 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	331	46	48.3	46.5	47.4	0.0022	0.0122	0.35	0.3622	F	F	16.3	568.3	238	460.23272928919	0.10580514858079	95	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L