Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 5, 2021

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DAY 248 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/06/2021 08:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.21°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.42°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.32°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.090 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 325 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.76 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.76 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.83 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.59 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 108 in SWE DAY: 155 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.51 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 49.15 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -37 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-06 07:59:05	OBSERVATION	2021	248	-37	39.21008	29.42006	34.31507	108.14610916667	0.75999999999999	0.75999999999999	2.83	3.59	T	F	7.21008	325.21008	155	454.51281271024	49.153792261011	0.090139110492444	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-06 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	248	-37	39.21008	29.42006	34.31507	108.14610916667	0.75999999999999	0.75999999999999	2.83	3.59	T	F	7.21008	325.21008	155	454.51281271024	49.153792261011	0.090139110492444	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	248	-36	31.94	31.94	31.94	110.01191272975	0.0034	0.0034	2.83	2.8334	F	F	-0.059999999999999	317.94	156	455.73200329881	50.135949375063	0.023043205558972	87	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-06-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	248	-36	37.09	31.85	34.47	109.53936852136	0.2943	0.2943	2.83	3.1243	F	F	5.09	323.09	156	455.56126196693	49.901892958653	0.062935469458475	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-05 08:00:38	FORECAST	2021	248	-36	36.17	32.21	34.19	109.71710825262	0.4236	0.4236	2.83	3.2536	F	F	4.17	322.17	156	455.62550755629	49.989913135209	0.053329243946685	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-05 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	248	-36	37.55	32.4	34.975	109.06744144314	0.484	0.484	2.83	3.314	F	F	5.55	323.55	156	455.3905389629	49.668280942097	0.068217447264165	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-04 23:58:58	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.68	32.61	36.145	111.06483050277	0.4827	0.4827	2.83	3.3127	F	F	7.68	327.68	155	455.57189049227	50.598014799349	0.097202938468411	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.39	32.82	36.605	112.17598340333	0.4189	0.4189	2.83	3.2489	F	F	8.39	328.39	155	455.97302082619	51.149222016566	0.10863060394022	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.92	33.1	36.51	111.98070776901	0.3388	0.3388	2.83	3.1688	F	F	7.92	327.92	155	455.9026075677	51.05229666917	0.10096306959424	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.1	33.2	36.65	110.78761155984	0.3401	0.3401	2.83	3.1701	F	F	8.1	328.1	155	455.47163683822	50.460614778557	0.10385174483941	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-04 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.08	33.14	36.61	110.23683536138	0.3289	0.3389	2.83	3.1689	F	F	8.08	329.08	155	455.27224417127	50.187771425314	0.10352786140044	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-04 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.18	33.15	36.665	110.0201639231	0.3162	0.3262	2.83	3.1562	F	F	8.18	328.18	155	455.19372803083	50.080488574719	0.10515460381816	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.9	32.85	36.375	110.54317066667	0.3353	0.3453	2.83	3.1753	F	F	7.9	313.9	155	455.38317847664	50.339500417072	0.10064574576579	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-03 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.13	32.99	36.56	112.509004	0.2847	0.3047	2.83	3.1347	F	F	8.13	328.13	155	456.09302216864	51.314571655544	0.10433894253822	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-03 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.04	32.85	36.445	112.519172	0.2959	0.3159	2.83	3.1459	F	F	8.04	328.04	155	456.09668453046	51.319621295313	0.10288228785678	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.91	33	36.455	110.87660266667	0.2874	0.2974	2.83	3.1274	F	F	7.91	327.91	155	455.50382733846	50.504716876953	0.10080431692639	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.81	32.82	36.315	110.46151866667	0.3209	0.3309	2.83	3.1609	F	F	7.81	326.81	155	455.35361798126	50.299052172571	0.099226759956429	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-03 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40	33.13	36.565	110.56372091667	0.3351	0.3451	2.83	3.1751	F	F	8	328	155	455.39061732352	50.349681121827	0.10223963467825	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-03 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.61	32.94	36.275	112.75484266667	0.326	0.336	2.83	3.166	F	F	7.61	311.61	155	456.18154308962	51.436678118507	0.09612577400878	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-02 19:59:14	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.76	33.52	36.64	114.794968	0.2971	0.3071	2.84	3.1471	F	F	7.76	327.76	155	456.91401711221	52.451429973147	0.09844476287297	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-02 16:00:35	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.29	33.39	36.34	114.90430133333	0.2899	0.2999	2.84	3.1399	F	F	7.29	326.29	155	456.95316442357	52.505884100147	0.091312860642248	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-02 11:59:16	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.83	34.28	37.555	112.30572133333	0.1963	0.1963	2.84	3.0363	F	F	8.83	328.83	155	456.01978293463	51.213630664744	0.11617904334785	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-02 08:00:36	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.71	34.89	37.3	111.64666	0.1883	0.1883	2.84	3.0283	F	F	7.71	329.71	155	455.78207430296	50.886546283797	0.097667273113276	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39.99	34.86	37.425	111.19586575	0.1868	0.1968	2.83	3.0268	F	F	7.99	326.99	155	455.61925360742	50.662977357246	0.1020794271126	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 23:59:17	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	44.39	35.46	39.925	111.39654266667	0.1539	0.1539	2.86	3.0139	F	F	12.39	330.39	155	455.69175837949	50.762486405169	0.19089579383105	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	44.76	35.75	40.255	114.328428	0.1302	0.1302	2.86	2.9902	F	F	12.76	331.76	155	456.74684805797	52.219149132423	0.20006572762172	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	45.42	36.72	41.07	114.22724	0.1369	0.1369	2.85	2.9869	F	F	13.42	333.42	155	456.71056456237	52.168787268802	0.21706455241517	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	43.28	36.12	39.7	111.720992	0.1489	0.1489	2.85	2.9989	F	F	11.28	332.28	155	455.80890410062	50.923422928554	0.16496519405172	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	38.95	36.05	37.5	111.55881358565	0.1602	0.1702	2.84	3.0102	F	F	6.95	322.95	155	455.75036000741	50.84296945366	0.086396767292711	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	39	36.05	37.525	111.31855367996	0.1563	0.1663	2.84	3.0063	F	F	7	325	155	455.66358527041	50.723811276928	0.087107088263794	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	49.37	36.85	43.11	110.37650266667	0.1387	0.1487	2.84	2.9887	F	F	17.37	327.37	155	455.32283310057	50.256941901919	0.334443859091	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 19:59:21	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	49.83	36.58	43.205	112.41077866667	0.1288	0.1488	2.84	2.9888	F	F	17.83	343.83	155	456.05763799911	51.265794204361	0.34960041348043	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	49.8	36.64	43.22	112.30193733333	0.1223	0.1323	2.84	2.9723	F	F	17.8	345.8	155	456.01841926624	51.211751943283	0.34860428116823	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	51.51	39.4	45.455	109.86648266667	0.1013	0.1213	2.84	2.9613	F	F	19.51	348.51	155	455.13801170798	50.004412474256	0.40684967323277	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 07:59:58	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	51.98	39.15	45.565	109.73526383333	0.1013	0.1213	2.85	2.9713	F	F	19.98	343.98	155	455.09042180133	49.939467504392	0.4232897782009	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	51.04	38.79	44.915	109.17662516667	0.1357	0.1557	2.84	2.9957	F	F	19.04	347.04	155	454.88763942814	49.663097302796	0.39057208371398	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	50.08	37.54	43.81	109.78834666667	0.1654	0.2154	2.84	3.0554	F	F	18.08	336.08	155	455.10967557538	49.965738833424	0.35794122106079	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-30 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	50.12	37.55	43.835	112.011004	0.1654	0.2054	2.83	3.0354	F	F	18.12	351.12	155	455.91353419121	51.067332701946	0.35928218733955	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-30 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	50.27	37.54	43.905	112.179104	0.2774	0.3274	2.84	3.1674	F	F	18.27	347.27	155	455.97414577976	51.150771120738	0.36432613800132	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	43.61	34.51	39.06	110.80280856564	0.1153	0.1453	2.84	2.9853	F	F	11.61	344.61	155	455.47713452315	50.468145742596	0.17242520778522	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	43.63	34.53	39.08	110.43516689892	0.1153	0.1253	2.86	2.9853	F	F	11.63	337.63	155	455.3440765351	50.285999088587	0.17288412491937	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	47.79	34.09	40.94	109.88857766667	0.0816	0.0916	2.84	2.9316	F	F	15.79	344.79	155	455.14602347154	50.015349149927	0.28452463904479	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-30 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.2	32.55	36.375	111.18752485473	0.6614	0.7714	2.84	3.6114	T	F	8.2	325.2	155	455.61623923353	50.658841923995	0.10548215285853	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-29 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.2	33.83	37.015	113.08703997239	0.6116	0.7216	2.83	3.5516	T	F	8.2	339.2	155	456.30107201787	51.601737570731	0.10548215285853	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-29 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	41.05	35.86	38.455	111.908196	0.2975	0.3275	2.83	3.1575	F	F	9.05	346.05	155	455.87645209453	51.016311352779	0.12008935558215	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-29 11:59:58	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.13	35.59	37.86	111.84073733333	0.3442	0.7842	2.83	3.6142	T	F	8.13	334.13	155	455.85211498286	50.982836654642	0.10433894253822	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.54	37.05	38.795	112.256368	0.3045	0.8145	2.86	3.6745	T	F	8.54	316.54	155	456.00199607522	51.189127880154	0.11116339447642	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-29 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	248	-37	40.55	37.93	39.24	112.40452466667	0.2347	0.7447	2.83	3.5747	T	F	8.55	327.55	155	456.0553847926	51.262688749286	0.1113337334763	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L