Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 19, 2021

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DAY 262 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/20/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.87°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.84°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.36°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.707 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 320 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.46 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.46 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 85 in SWE DAY: 169 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.65 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 38.48 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -23 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-20 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	262	-23	60.87002	41.84006	51.35504	84.8325075	0	0	3.46	3.46	F	F	28.87002	319.87002	169	453.64751634343	38.484056332561	0.70654257869298	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	262	-22	46.96	46.96	46.96	85.918218666667	0.0004	0.0004	3.46	3.4604	F	F	14.96	305.96	170	454.59038686055	39.057596262049	0.19854261780291	89	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-06-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	262	-22	61.63	50.23	55.93	86.236234666667	0.005	0.005	3.46	3.465	F	F	29.63	320.63	170	454.70609998483	39.212141942657	0.73212974284889	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	262	-22	62.24	45.52	53.88	85.789444	0.0063	0.0063	3.46	3.4663	F	F	30.24	321.24	170	454.54350438856	38.995034515306	0.75182230838621	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-19 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	262	-22	62.35	45.91	54.13	85.306234333333	0.0025	0.0025	3.46	3.4625	F	F	30.35	321.35	170	454.36744740775	38.760375942004	0.75528954323086	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-19 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	61.42	44.31	52.865	86.16362	0.0063	0.0063	3.46	3.4663	F	F	29.42	304.42	169	454.13441413437	39.129865088396	0.72517294428692	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	61.09	44.2	52.645	88.279786666667	0.0047	0.0147	3.46	3.4747	F	F	29.09	322.09	169	454.90509019176	40.158924315709	0.71406422352052	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	60.96	44.87	52.915	88.263441333333	0.0013	0.0113	3.46	3.4713	F	F	28.96	321.96	169	454.89915332787	40.150964732338	0.70963026859028	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	58.02	46.22	52.12	86.63596	0.0019	0.0119	3.46	3.4719	F	F	26.02	319.02	169	454.30679255028	39.359305107115	0.6019868435054	89	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	60.84	46.11	53.475	86.11936	0.0015	0.0115	3.46	3.4715	F	F	28.84	319.84	169	454.11825104119	39.108373143986	0.7055090640468	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-18 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	61.11	46.18	53.645	85.9879485	0.0019	0.0119	3.46	3.4719	F	F	29.11	317.11	169	454.07025080948	39.044569341987	0.71474350641424	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	62.16	46.62	54.39	87.110869333333	0.0026	0.0126	3.46	3.4726	F	F	30.16	312.16	169	454.47990025823	39.590139206021	0.74928434642817	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	61.88	46.53	54.205	89.250433333333	0.0032	0.0032	3.46	3.4632	F	F	29.88	324.88	169	455.25720169076	40.631902529021	0.74029451355209	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	62.39	46.91	54.65	89.160233333333	0.0004	0.0004	3.46	3.4604	F	F	30.39	325.39	169	455.22451734054	40.587924185137	0.75654386887791	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-17 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	61.84	46.75	54.295	87.401005333333	0.0021	0.0021	3.46	3.4621	F	F	29.84	324.84	169	454.5855541114	39.731234439346	0.73899682283805	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-17 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	61.15	46.51	53.83	86.990841333333	0.0021	0.0021	3.46	3.4621	F	F	29.15	325.15	169	454.43616894592	39.531784668903	0.71609976343542	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-17 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	59.11	46.75	52.93	86.545539166667	0	0.01	3.46	3.47	F	F	27.11	322.11	169	454.27380986649	39.315371804191	0.64334750270354	89	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	61.35	47.21	54.28	86.40558	0.0072	0.0172	3.46	3.4772	F	F	29.35	316.35	169	454.22274221306	39.24737949011	0.72283440331423	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-16 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	64.12	47.19	55.655	87.361518666667	0.0089	0.0089	3.47	3.4789	F	F	32.12	330.12	169	454.57117950578	39.712028583723	0.8073484344132	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-16 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	64.47	46.92	55.695	87.302752	0.0044	0.0044	3.47	3.4744	F	F	32.47	330.47	169	454.54978359814	39.683447029122	0.81677955884117	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-16 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	61.77	46.85	54.31	85.844792	0.002	0.002	3.47	3.472	F	F	29.77	327.77	169	454.01794228464	38.975075819693	0.73671787934256	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-16 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	62.73	47.58	55.155	85.585234666667	0.0024	0.0024	3.47	3.4724	F	F	30.73	324.73	169	453.92305307524	38.849111018054	0.76706427179196	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-16 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	67.17	45.24	56.205	85.721530333333	0.0014	0.0014	3.47	3.4714	F	F	35.17	334.17	169	453.97288797082	38.915250686702	0.87964509372397	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-16 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	65.69	47.52	56.605	86.094656	0.0029	0.0029	3.14	3.1429	F	F	33.69	327.69	169	454.10922871793	39.096377832896	0.84735597966486	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	64.67	45.31	54.99	86.942901333333	0.0034	0.0034	3.29	3.2934	F	F	32.67	338.67	169	454.41869863589	39.508480079522	0.82203747323332	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-15 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	67.88	47.78	57.83	86.635729333333	0.0007	0.0007	3.29	3.2907	F	F	35.88	342.88	169	454.30670841996	39.359193024989	0.89329951834357	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-15 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	69.89	50.11	60	85.419122666667	0.0004	0.0004	3.29	3.2904	F	F	37.89	348.89	169	453.86229285957	38.768518867546	0.92584617573439	89	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-06-15 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	69.74	50.6	60.17	84.976268	0.0006	0.0006	3.35	3.3506	F	F	37.74	348.74	169	453.70018076291	38.553748152157	0.92371445836868	89	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-06-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	70.75	50.62	60.685	84.722743833333	0.0006	0.0006	3.32	3.3206	F	F	38.75	348.75	169	453.6072931855	38.430854501487	0.93720279590035	89	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-06-15 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	70.18	49.38	59.78	85.853541333333	0.0008	0.0008	3.1	3.1008	F	F	38.18	348.18	169	454.0211397842	38.97932269067	0.92983850593782	89	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-06-14 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	71.18	50.38	60.78	86.347054666667	0.0012	0.0012	3.36	3.3612	F	F	39.18	365.18	169	454.2013823766	39.218951593748	0.94234978206178	89	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-06-14 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	70.26	47.18	58.72	86.418012	0.0012	0.0012	3.32	3.3212	F	F	38.26	364.26	169	454.22727907843	39.253418454127	0.93091030977512	89	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-06-14 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	64.5	47.16	55.83	85.906004	0.0025	0.0025	3.35	3.3525	F	F	32.5	354.5	169	454.04031110929	39.004788782316	0.81757434983906	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	64.53	45.86	55.195	85.764253333333	0.0025	0.0025	3.38	3.3825	F	F	32.53	349.53	169	453.98850557836	38.935985202844	0.81836698843872	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-14 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	62.92	45.87	54.395	85.896076761905	0.0025	0.0025	3.46	3.4625	F	F	30.92	352.92	169	454.03668361493	38.999969828508	0.7728317064116	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-14 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	65.95	46.27	56.11	86.063590666667	0.0015	0.0015	2.92	2.9215	F	F	33.95	352.95	169	454.09788232336	39.081294266878	0.85340837427369	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-13 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	65.77	46.83	56.3	87.207637333333	0.0017	0.0017	3.26	3.2617	F	F	33.77	361.77	169	454.51514725594	39.637192124403	0.84923561210554	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-13 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	65.82	46.85	56.335	86.653481333333	0.0017	0.0017	4.11	4.1117	T	F	33.82	369.82	169	454.31318290699	39.367818914518	0.85040254517517	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-06-13 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	63.9	44.9	54.4	85.231929333333	0.002	0.002	4.08	4.082	T	F	31.9	370.9	169	453.79379081323	38.677720310499	0.80127155655461	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2021-06-13 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	62.04	44.47	53.255	84.749769333333	0.002	0.002	3.19	3.192	F	F	30.04	370.04	169	453.61719778522	38.44395287793	0.74545182153466	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	62.05	44.47	53.26	84.33492325	0.002	0.002	3.34	3.342	F	F	30.05	367.05	169	453.46508556359	38.24294318756	0.7457723649987	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-13 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	74.58	49.76	62.17	83.602626666667	0.0015	0.0015	3.31	3.3115	F	F	42.58	380.58	169	453.19618180247	37.888391193991	0.97231493223249	89	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-06-12 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	73.3	47.48	60.39	85.775336	0.0021	0.0021	3.39	3.3921	F	F	41.3	389.3	169	453.99255662607	38.9413640861	0.96306789759907	89	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-06-12 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	73.32	47.47	60.395	86.38394	0.0021	0.0021	3.55	3.5521	F	F	41.32	391.32	169	454.21484468934	39.236867890753	0.96322968616261	89	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-06-12 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	64.24	51.32	57.78	86.109732	0.0018	0.0018	3.81	3.8118	T	F	32.24	378.24	169	454.11473479827	39.10369811073	0.81061480044595	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-06-12 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	49.04	46.79	47.915	87.590542666667	0.0002	0.0002	4	4.0002	T	F	17.04	345.04	169	454.65453263835	39.823437239653	0.26143647942685	89	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2021-06-12 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	262	-23	48.4	47.54	47.97	87.47628825	0.0002	0.0002	3.9	3.9002	T	F	16.4	349.4	169	454.61295588035	39.767853970774	0.24106173238092	89	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L