Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 31, 2021

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DAY 243 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/01/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.40°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.20°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.30°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.902 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 33 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 289 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.45 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 124 in SWE DAY: 150 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.58 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 56.80 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -42 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-01 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	243	-42	65.40008	47.19992	56.3	124.12868875	0	0	3.45	3.45	F	F	33.40008	289.40008	150	457.57617005867	56.798329992629	0.90178714939045	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-41	54.4	54.4	54.4	124.87754666667	0.0004	0.0004	3.45	3.4504	F	F	22.4	278.4	151	458.37403353414	57.240624763448	0.61658940392567	90	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	243	-41	66.22	54.14	60.18	124.97629466667	0.011	0.011	3.45	3.461	F	F	34.22	290.22	151	458.40902503742	57.290261390936	0.91404481217692	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-31 07:59:58	FORECAST	2021	243	-41	61.52	53.47	57.495	124.97097316667	0.0189	0.0189	3.45	3.4689	F	F	29.52	285.52	151	458.40713957957	57.287586339807	0.82652635153483	90	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	243	-41	66.45	49.03	57.74	124.47197583333	0.005	0.005	3.45	3.455	F	F	34.45	290.45	151	458.23022681289	57.036821717957	0.91726917352046	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	65.26	48.99	57.125	124.74848133333	0.0075	0.0075	3.45	3.4575	F	F	33.26	280.26	150	457.7969043045	57.109468571087	0.89957127676303	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	65.24	47.56	56.4	126.875472	0.0031	0.0031	3.45	3.4531	F	F	33.24	293.24	150	458.55177820541	58.178973296251	0.89925196132874	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	65.46	47.58	56.52	126.89214533333	0.0038	0.0038	3.45	3.4538	F	F	33.46	293.46	150	458.5576795148	58.187367712708	0.90272402193387	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	65.01	48.89	56.95	125.138876	0.0004	0.0004	3.45	3.4504	F	F	33.01	293.01	150	457.9357620207	57.305566539474	0.89552667515904	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	64.81	48.74	56.775	124.79141466667	0.0008	0.0108	3.45	3.4608	F	F	32.81	290.81	150	457.81218180746	57.131029819386	0.89220728560389	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	65.06	48.76	56.91	124.711335	0	0.01	3.45	3.46	F	F	33.06	291.06	150	457.78368471748	57.090814462336	0.89634486427915	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	64.9	49.11	57.005	124.01766266667	0.0004	0.0104	3.45	3.4604	F	F	32.9	280.9	150	457.53659228104	56.742618759166	0.89371026409125	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-29 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	65.33	49.31	57.32	126.13858533333	0.0004	0.0004	3.45	3.4504	F	F	33.33	294.33	150	458.29071699799	57.808142713526	0.90068308358335	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-29 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	65.39	49.57	57.48	126.048276	0.0002	0.0002	3.45	3.4502	F	F	33.39	295.39	150	458.25868895071	57.762717704257	0.90162889950518	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-29 11:59:57	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	65.99	49.49	57.74	124.45835066667	0.0002	0.0002	3.45	3.4502	F	F	33.99	295.99	150	457.69361981278	56.963793032555	0.91072764623848	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	65.71	49.88	57.795	124.23891866667	0.0008	0.0308	3.45	3.4808	F	F	33.71	290.71	150	457.61545298468	56.853649043973	0.90656238330818	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-29 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	66.22	50.17	58.195	124.37953133333	0.0008	0.0008	3.45	3.4508	F	F	34.22	294.22	150	457.66554753035	56.924226309238	0.91404481217692	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-29 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	66.58	50.32	58.45	122.961376	0.0006	0.0106	3.18	3.1906	F	F	34.58	286.58	150	457.15949608871	56.212960690535	0.91905105138891	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	68.11	50.28	59.195	122.95683866667	0.0002	0.0002	3.21	3.2102	F	F	36.11	299.11	150	457.15787406945	56.210686967154	0.93790653895681	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	68.4	50.08	59.24	122.94514	0.0015	0.0015	3.21	3.2115	F	F	36.4	298.4	150	457.15369190947	56.204824653326	0.94106051182841	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	68.02	49.65	58.835	122.72231866667	0.0017	0.0017	3.21	3.2117	F	F	36.02	298.02	150	457.07401171217	56.093182519592	0.93690148835766	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-28 07:59:27	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	64.58	49.65	57.115	122.40849775	0.0016	0.0016	3.24	3.2416	F	F	32.58	291.58	150	456.96171384404	55.935996920915	0.88829716684858	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-28 04:00:29	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	67.58	47.97	57.775	122.42838974033	0.0014	0.0014	3.3	3.3014	F	F	35.58	298.58	150	456.96883466343	55.94595858936	0.93180516112462	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-27 23:59:21	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	67.23	47.61	57.42	124.41853928484	0.0017	0.0017	3.35	3.3517	F	F	35.23	292.23	150	457.67944129919	56.943807547147	0.92752975578245	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-27 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	66.83	47.38	57.105	123.78713487833	0.0017	0.0017	3.37	3.3717	F	F	34.83	293.83	150	457.4543797425	56.626967005866	0.92239635676735	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-27 15:59:27	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	67.81	47.84	57.825	124.0670284901	0.0017	0.0017	3.37	3.3717	F	F	35.81	294.81	150	457.55419123187	56.767388879326	0.93450729156186	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-27 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	68.89	48.95	58.92	123.90059045012	0.0006	0.0006	3.39	3.3906	F	F	36.89	295.89	150	457.49484713023	56.683881687322	0.94610338326516	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-27 07:59:36	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	64.9	49.05	56.975	124.30618843843	0.001	0.001	3.52	3.521	F	F	32.9	286.9	150	457.63942068703	56.887412064777	0.89371026409125	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-27 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	64.92	49.03	56.975	123.49269582812	0.001	0.001	3.64	3.641	F	F	32.92	295.92	150	457.34930466128	56.479298567739	0.89404220059216	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-27 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	68.7	48.57	58.635	126.21770596236	0.0018	0.0018	3.69	3.6918	F	F	36.7	291.7	150	458.31877095364	57.847943869257	0.9441899715169	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	68.73	45.86	57.295	126.99575512459	0.0018	0.0018	3.59	3.5918	F	F	36.73	303.73	150	458.59434525095	58.239535171013	0.94449559153308	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	67.77	49.43	58.6	126.73622147228	0.003	0.003	3.58	3.583	F	F	35.77	303.77	150	458.50248253198	58.108872171765	0.93404339526176	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	70.69	49.52	60.105	125.45792169739	0.0026	0.0026	3.58	3.5826	F	F	38.69	308.69	150	458.04913974451	57.465893107626	0.96176783451697	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	71.04	49.56	60.3	125.90587485755	0.0026	0.0026	3.58	3.5826	F	F	39.04	305.04	150	458.20817170639	57.691100725572	0.9643346693315	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	71.07	49.56	60.315	126.33114254761	0.0026	0.0026	3.61	3.6126	F	F	39.07	305.07	150	458.35898254999	57.905013962502	0.96454796963635	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	68.15	46.69	57.42	127.32539644976	0.0037	0.0037	3.39	3.3937	F	F	36.15	296.15	150	458.71093552188	58.405551721164	0.93834921305581	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-25 19:59:59	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	66.4	47.39	56.895	131.5850402083	0.0038	0.0038	4.52	4.5238	T	F	34.4	302.4	150	460.20877339312	60.556589951147	0.91657605831999	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-05-25 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	66.46	47.4	56.93	128.61202950904	0.0038	0.0038	3.55	3.5538	F	F	34.46	302.46	150	459.16506959142	59.054151479812	0.91740727681535	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-25 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	67.79	45.81	56.8	128.38435623553	0.0003	0.0003	3.63	3.6303	F	F	35.79	299.79	150	459.0848173503	58.939308733023	0.93427565960791	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	67.46	45.9	56.68	128.48364440554	0.0003	0.0003	3.81	3.8103	T	F	35.46	292.46	150	459.11982100815	58.989387821947	0.93036172131656	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	67.47	45.9	56.685	128.81922770052	0.0003	0.0003	3.79	3.7903	T	F	35.47	291.47	150	459.23806427355	59.158692770399	0.93048289615137	90	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-24 23:59:35	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	69.48	48.68	59.08	127.85563159988	0.0014	0.0014	3.73	3.7314	T	F	37.48	304.48	150	458.89826879721	58.67272799716	0.95171660254558	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-24 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	69.82	48.45	59.135	129.48973597054	0.0012	0.0012	3.81	3.8112	T	F	37.82	307.82	150	459.47401718746	59.497169170929	0.9547333012618	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-24 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	69.84	48.46	59.15	129.49675495632	0.0012	0.0012	3.88	3.8812	T	F	37.84	309.84	150	459.47648505488	59.500713793344	0.95490593765767	90	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2021-05-24 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	60.98	49.46	55.22	130.28746503686	0.0007	0.0007	3.9	3.9007	T	F	28.98	295.98	150	459.75421634962	59.900211388199	0.81371432949178	90	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-24 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	52.16	49.12	50.64	130.81803900468	0.0007	0.0007	3.88	3.8807	T	F	20.16	285.16	150	459.94026421072	60.168483423339	0.53743311236943	90	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	243	-42	50.9	49.12	50.01	131.8908935125	0.0007	0.0007	3.85	3.8507	T	F	18.9	282.9	150	460.31569967817	60.711448928387	0.49203190652025	90	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L