Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 28, 2021

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DAY 240 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/29/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.16°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.38°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.77°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.256 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 270 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.27 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.10 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.35 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 132 in SWE DAY: 147 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 60.67 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -45 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-29 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	240	-45	43.16	30.38	36.77	132.21758333333	0.26999999999998	1.1	2.35	3.45	T	F	11.16	270.16	147	458.85369177486	60.668526230051	0.2562446348617	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	240	-44	32.74	32.74	32.74	130.99595466667	0.0001	0.8301	2.35	3.1801	F	F	0.74	259.74	148	458.95058206432	60.120669642338	0.051404044432166	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	240	-44	43.94	33.39	38.665	130.50756266667	0.0299	0.8599	2.35	3.2099	F	F	11.94	270.94	148	458.77810617524	59.87401244176	0.28029408809751	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-28 07:59:26	FORECAST	2021	240	-44	40.63	32.17	36.4	130.17581108333	0.0617	0.8917	2.35	3.2417	F	F	8.63	267.63	148	458.66082584137	59.706545016052	0.18625377599171	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-28 04:00:29	FORECAST	2021	240	-44	43.95	31.33	37.64	130.22708174033	0.1162	0.9462	2.35	3.2962	T	F	11.95	270.95	148	458.67895742594	59.732422081278	0.28060936388953	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-27 23:59:19	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	43.83	31.27	37.55	132.07132595151	0.3347	1.0047	2.35	3.3547	T	F	11.83	265.83	147	458.80202734451	60.594592100629	0.27683741095969	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	43.91	33.09	38.5	131.47151887833	0.35	1.02	2.35	3.37	T	F	11.91	265.91	147	458.58994868598	60.29151709608	0.27934929024604	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-27 15:59:24	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	43.78	31.82	37.8	131.78082315676	0.3548	1.0248	2.35	3.3748	T	F	11.78	265.78	147	458.69935225988	60.44777822228	0.27527311751553	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	43.79	32.48	38.135	131.69430778345	0.3737	1.0437	2.35	3.3937	T	F	11.79	265.79	147	458.6687596888	60.404064809111	0.27558562825459	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-27 07:59:36	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	43.76	31.91	37.835	131.96312977177	0.3647	1.1747	2.35	3.5247	T	F	11.76	264.76	147	458.76379542343	60.539906270051	0.27464861919398	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-27 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	43.83	32.9	38.365	131.21485449479	0.3417	1.2917	2.35	3.6417	T	F	11.83	268.83	147	458.49909901726	60.161892563541	0.27683741095969	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-27 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	44.26	33.19	38.725	133.83501396236	0.3585	1.3385	2.35	3.6885	T	F	12.26	263.26	147	459.42376027907	61.486985371589	0.29046695032212	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-26 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	44.47	33.47	38.97	134.64925245793	0.3121	1.2421	2.35	3.5921	T	F	12.47	273.47	147	459.70985615041	61.899588478193	0.29723534070293	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-26 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	44.63	33.21	38.92	134.50227747228	0.3086	1.2286	2.35	3.5786	T	F	12.63	273.63	147	459.65825786396	61.825082541644	0.30244004074058	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	44.87	32.97	38.92	133.48976703073	0.2994	1.2294	2.35	3.5794	T	F	12.87	273.87	147	459.30227343725	61.312153477822	0.31032264306009	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-26 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	44.11	33.05	38.58	133.78826152422	0.3103	1.2303	2.35	3.5803	T	F	12.11	274.11	147	459.40731508399	61.463306016596	0.28567694607686	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	43.64	32.96	38.3	134.18679721428	0.3432	1.2632	2.35	3.6132	T	F	11.64	273.64	147	459.54743761585	61.6651988217	0.27091635075489	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-26 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	43.41	33.22	38.315	134.52160711643	0.3424	1.2724	2.12	3.3924	T	F	11.41	267.41	147	459.6650449931	61.834880587717	0.26383422166433	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-25 19:59:57	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	42.78	32.76	37.77	138.51081487497	0.4352	2.2752	2.24	4.5152	T	F	10.78	276.78	147	461.05865046066	63.86160938046	0.24492995741559	87	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-05-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	42.66	32.86	37.76	135.56174817571	0.4729	1.3129	2.24	3.5529	T	F	10.66	276.66	147	460.02977396701	62.362440371842	0.24141349097488	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-25 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	40.34	32.48	36.41	135.25972823553	0.5014	1.3914	2.24	3.6314	T	F	8.34	273.34	147	459.9239689132	62.209191044206	0.17906413642795	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	37.89	32.72	35.305	135.19687507221	0.4969	1.4969	2.31	3.8069	T	F	5.89	269.89	147	459.90193969056	62.177305085811	0.1254029439564	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	39.69	32.68	36.185	135.53289570052	0.5238	1.4938	2.3	3.7938	T	F	7.69	268.69	147	460.01966973769	62.347797918744	0.16359246933872	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-24 23:59:34	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	43.61	33.1	38.355	135.31631959988	0.4352	1.7252	2	3.7252	T	F	11.61	274.61	147	459.94380044755	62.237902299345	0.26998724886221	87	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-05-24 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	44.19	31.56	37.875	136.55327063721	0.3766	1.7766	2.03	3.8066	T	F	12.19	276.19	147	460.37655872247	62.865924818256	0.28822694309433	87	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-05-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	44.21	31.79	38	135.82966962299	0.3822	1.7722	2.11	3.8822	T	F	12.21	278.21	147	460.1235655617	62.498431895997	0.28886611408939	87	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-05-24 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	39.72	32.8	36.26	135.49572237019	0.755	1.845	2.05	3.895	T	F	7.72	275.72	147	460.00665042655	62.328933394638	0.16428690327193	87	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	39.8	32.78	36.29	135.66746433801	0.7541	1.7941	2.09	3.8841	T	F	7.8	271.8	147	460.06678977949	62.416094795511	0.16614803318974	87	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	36.33	32.38	34.355	136.4264775125	0.6398	1.6798	2.17	3.8498	T	F	4.33	271.33	147	460.33226154162	62.801508927487	0.097731173912524	87	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	40.42	32.47	36.445	136.13611582838	0.6505	1.4405	2.26	3.7005	T	F	8.42	266.42	147	460.23076534199	62.65402877838	0.18102986714361	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-23 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	40.43	31.91	36.17	136.7062045622	0.6824	1.5424	2.27	3.8124	T	F	8.43	276.43	147	460.42996962712	62.943633614411	0.181276528453	87	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-23 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	40.66	31.72	36.19	137.6866712526	0.7045	1.5745	2.32	3.8945	T	F	8.66	280.66	147	460.77189704059	63.442148710265	0.18700758381968	87	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	42.24	31.81	37.025	136.32402345644	0.2748	1.1148	2.28	3.3948	T	F	10.24	277.24	147	460.2964571762	62.749465025003	0.22932433676615	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-23 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	41.12	31.73	36.425	136.08004398539	0.289	1.239	2.19	3.429	T	F	9.12	274.12	147	460.21115675169	62.625554453339	0.19880059538246	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	41.14	31.76	36.45	135.71000669519	0.2889	1.1489	2.18	3.3289	T	F	9.14	282.14	147	460.08168289895	62.43768826655	0.19932328265783	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-23 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	39.9	32.8	36.35	134.88561106012	0.2042	0.5942	2.3	2.8942	F	F	7.9	268.9	147	459.79279382233	62.019431955765	0.16849347338319	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	39.93	32.78	36.355	136.43950100055	0.2042	0.5742	2.22	2.7942	F	F	7.93	281.93	147	460.33681216032	62.808124943338	0.1692012262164	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	41.84	32.83	37.335	135.84339023885	0.1972	0.5772	2.24	2.8172	F	F	9.84	286.84	147	460.12836703696	62.505397323368	0.2181328623035	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	41.41	35.13	38.27	133.88355445258	0.9129	1.3829	2.04	3.4229	T	F	9.41	282.41	147	459.44083235619	61.511571696497	0.20646007555583	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-22 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	41.52	35.04	38.28	133.86587957756	0.9129	1.3829	2.15	3.5329	T	F	9.52	281.52	147	459.43461620551	61.502619006728	0.20941043873897	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	44.2	33.02	38.61	134.04155564755	0.9247	1.4547	2.15	3.6047	T	F	12.2	295.2	147	459.49638806097	61.591610670125	0.28854644529196	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	46.8	33.87	40.335	132.32785947959	0.224	0.634	2.04	2.674	F	F	14.8	287.8	147	458.892633388	60.724279907187	0.37663522386109	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	46.03	34.61	40.32	133.31288266667	0.1995	0.7295	2.18	2.9095	F	F	14.03	301.03	147	459.23998938898	61.222606821254	0.34960603650179	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	44.6	34.63	39.615	133.54155333333	0.2058	0.7458	1.84	2.5858	F	F	12.6	300.6	147	459.32050299637	61.338373447983	0.30146105342938	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	34.8	31.99	33.395	134.51641363854	0.1361	1.0261	1.72	2.7461	F	F	2.8	279.8	147	459.66322146381	61.832248032847	0.075208648425743	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	35.64	34.46	35.05	133.53204321374	0.057	0.647	1.52	2.167	F	F	3.64	280.64	147	459.31715547066	61.333558253118	0.087029098900002	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	240	-45	35.41	34.58	34.995	133.21902283333	0.0072	0.5972	1.52	2.1172	F	F	3.41	292.41	147	459.20692835026	61.175098273118	0.083663033372028	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L