Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 2, 2021

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DAY 214 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/03/2021 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.05°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.37°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.71°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.391 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 254 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.00 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.11 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 168 in SWE DAY: 121 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.90 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 77.12 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -71 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-03 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2021	214	-71	42.04994	25.37006	33.71	168.4150175	0.0099999999999909	0.10999999999999	1	1.11	F	F	10.04994	254.04994	121	457.89676246903	77.116691264415	0.3908201991465	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	214	-70	30.96	30.96	30.96	171	0	0.1	1	1.1	F	F	-1.04	242.96	122	459.34051998713	78.547228917799	0.079156902877112	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	214	-70	42.52	31.17	36.845	170.63007848642	0.0178	0.1178	1	1.1178	F	F	10.52	254.52	122	459.21026822767	78.355084109457	0.40937011992846	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	214	-70	38.23	27.52	32.875	170.76811522246	0.0261	0.1261	1	1.1261	F	F	6.23	250.23	122	459.25888616998	78.426774390411	0.25225557274511	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 04:02:32	FORECAST	2021	214	-70	44.14	28.12	36.13	170.31450019849	0.0231	0.1231	1	1.1231	F	F	12.14	256.14	122	459.09905429182	78.191225973311	0.47461095606246	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.89	29.06	36.475	172.59674398329	0.024	0.124	1	1.124	F	F	11.89	247.89	121	459.37594923347	79.286793101932	0.46445306318006	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.45	26.65	35.05	172.60577061404	0.0237	0.1637	1	1.1637	F	F	11.45	258.45	121	459.37912522692	79.291487913796	0.44663534115807	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.33	30.39	36.86	172.59565097669	0.0228	0.1628	1	1.1628	F	F	11.33	258.33	121	459.37556465737	79.286224624823	0.4417930687538	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 12:02:24	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.63	29.68	36.655	172.36983249291	0.0284	0.1684	1	1.1684	F	F	11.63	258.63	121	459.29608716623	79.168789609492	0.45391346877655	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.98	29.85	36.915	172.3075840844	0.028	0.178	1	1.178	F	F	11.98	258.98	121	459.27417063627	79.136422774702	0.46810758464015	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.83	30.02	36.925	172.0477789314	0.0212	0.1612	1	1.1612	F	F	11.83	259.83	121	459.1826605554	79.001356872368	0.46201836123757	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.91	30.13	37.02	173.09078171488	0.0207	0.0607	1	1.0607	F	F	11.91	252.91	121	459.54966792855	79.543811258568	0.46526493090756	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.87	30.3	37.085	174.09341086655	0.0216	0.2316	1	1.2316	F	F	11.87	259.87	121	459.90155342208	80.065830098074	0.46364134341952	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	44.44	30.34	37.39	174.16320008623	0.0271	0.2571	1	1.2571	F	F	12.44	260.44	121	459.92601349598	80.102186313361	0.48682166818104	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	44.11	30.17	37.14	173.57150165402	0.0239	0.2539	1	1.2539	F	F	12.11	259.11	121	459.71849455507	79.794029438047	0.47339100588338	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 07:55:33	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.33	30.63	36.98	173.74059582755	0.0204	0.3704	1	1.3704	F	F	11.33	258.33	121	459.7778306579	79.8820742468	0.4417930687538	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.06	29.83	36.445	173.67693871843	0.0218	0.4318	1	1.4318	F	F	11.06	255.06	121	459.75549600898	79.84892710581	0.43093078146396	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.22	30.15	36.685	174.09364914737	0.0227	0.4427	1	1.4427	F	F	11.22	240.22	121	459.90163694331	80.065954224311	0.43736192912061	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	46.75	31.39	39.07	174.77533907288	0.0257	0.5757	1.01	1.5857	F	F	14.75	261.75	121	460.14037331689	80.421189767581	0.58040327911581	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-29 15:55:54	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	46.35	30.14	38.245	175.16720357293	0.029	0.579	1.01	1.589	F	F	14.35	255.35	121	460.27742219313	80.625508913329	0.56437289893641	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-29 11:55:54	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	46.02	29.78	37.9	173.76752302909	0.0357	0.6057	1.01	1.6157	F	F	14.02	258.02	121	459.78727721331	79.896096281649	0.551066524318	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	42.47	30.24	36.355	173.50231173228	0.0347	0.5747	1.01	1.5847	F	F	10.47	256.47	121	459.69420807147	79.758007790341	0.40738651196594	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	46.17	28.61	37.39	173.57951295686	0.0378	0.5578	1.01	1.5678	F	F	14.17	261.17	121	459.72130634173	79.798200450691	0.5571229222315	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-29 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	40.96	30.29	35.625	174.44458351758	0.0879	0.6879	1	1.6879	F	F	8.96	242.96	121	460.02459019286	80.248798044037	0.34881574691287	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	46.15	29.14	37.645	175.07408120452	0.0683	0.5583	1.02	1.5783	F	F	14.15	258.15	121	460.24486636245	80.576947107505	0.55631614158471	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	45.89	30.97	38.43	174.97912532936	0.1626	0.6726	1.02	1.6926	F	F	13.89	255.89	121	460.21166160256	80.527434013589	0.54580795218184	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	46.45	31.72	39.085	173.69225613202	0.1637	0.6737	1.02	1.6937	F	F	14.45	257.45	121	459.76087058634	79.856902893364	0.56839149610828	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-28 07:55:50	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	47.8	31.35	39.575	173.69268000747	0.0565	0.5865	1.02	1.6065	F	F	15.8	252.8	121	459.76101931288	79.857123607419	0.621788832225	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	41.87	31.32	36.595	174.20990640901	0.0565	0.5865	1.03	1.6165	F	F	9.87	252.87	121	459.94238093926	80.126519136965	0.38378200286969	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	44.7	31.71	38.205	173.98962874051	0.1498	0.6498	1.04	1.6898	F	F	12.7	249.7	121	459.86517132568	80.011770429649	0.49741470215367	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-27 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	44.66	31.75	38.205	174.93085672104	0.1457	0.6757	1.05	1.7257	F	F	12.66	259.66	121	460.19477966553	80.502267065443	0.49578469888653	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-27 15:59:37	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	44.75	31.97	38.36	174.74110853192	0.1188	0.6788	1.05	1.7288	F	F	12.75	258.75	121	460.12839520635	80.403345845369	0.49945226374377	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-27 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	46.57	30.88	38.725	173.62820602447	0.0449	0.5649	1.06	1.6249	F	F	14.57	268.57	121	459.73839527989	79.823552813015	0.57320445124979	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-27 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	46.81	30.5	38.655	173.85290307259	0.0431	0.3531	1.07	1.4231	F	F	14.81	262.81	121	459.8172258243	79.940559592341	0.58279704660088	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	46.59	31.54	39.065	173.10910555531	0.0431	0.2731	1.07	1.3431	F	F	14.59	271.59	121	459.5561069566	79.553346627738	0.57400557214347	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 00:00:08	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	45.73	33.84	39.785	173.26094772516	0.096	0.266	0.87	1.136	F	F	13.73	259.73	121	459.60945301845	79.632369413419	0.53932492098802	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 19:59:36	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	47.87	32.48	40.175	173.52714849479	0.0265	0.2765	0.9	1.1765	F	F	15.87	269.87	121	459.70292656092	79.770938000827	0.62450445179805	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	47.97	32.5	40.235	173.36972853424	0.0265	0.2765	0.9	1.1765	F	F	15.97	274.97	121	459.64765786842	79.688989666049	0.62837320453712	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 12:02:16	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	42.47	32.86	37.665	173.58505878896	0.1309	0.3809	0.9	1.2809	F	F	10.47	263.47	121	459.72325277024	79.801087858772	0.40738651196594	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-26 07:59:40	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	41.19	32.8	36.995	174.04542136921	0.2383	0.4683	0.92	1.3883	F	F	9.19	261.19	121	459.88473130759	80.040831841698	0.35754639208298	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	41.23	32.81	37.02	174.0036776128	0.2383	0.4583	0.93	1.3883	F	F	9.23	267.23	121	459.87009689135	80.01908808325	0.35907255501697	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-26 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	47.43	32.06	39.745	172.53181550156	0.0627	0.2727	0.62	0.8927	F	F	15.43	269.43	121	459.35310219257	79.253024677557	0.60733771655613	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-25 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	47.51	32.09	39.8	172.55132656052	0.0613	0.2713	0.72	0.9913	F	F	15.51	279.51	121	459.35996814204	79.263171871707	0.61047560643187	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-25 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	43.83	33.03	38.43	173.73910507605	0.0939	0.4639	0.73	1.1939	F	F	11.83	277.83	121	459.7773076561	79.881297966449	0.46201836123757	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-25 11:55:44	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	35.26	31.01	33.135	177.05343884281	0.2402	0.7602	0.8	1.5602	F	F	3.26	256.26	121	460.93520015831	81.61016227173	0.16579686541586	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-25 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	32.78	31.21	31.995	178.01578597361	0.2258	0.7758	0.92	1.6958	F	F	0.78	249.78	121	461.26958282838	82.113267332914	0.11038096295763	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-25 03:56:00	FORECAST	2021	214	-71	32.8	31.84	32.32	177.58775082136	0.1868	0.7368	0.99	1.7268	F	F	0.8	253.8	121	461.12095619049	81.889433466466	0.11076712383376	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L