Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 30, 2021

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DAY 212 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/01/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.97°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.92°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.494 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 262 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.10 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.00 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 173 in SWE DAY: 119 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.40 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 79.22 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -73 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-01 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	212	-73	43.97	35.87	39.92	172.81133416667	0.10000000000002	0.10000000000002	1	1.1	F	F	11.97	261.97	119	458.39521479334	79.215888644053	0.49437301334201	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	212	-72	37.41	37.41	37.41	173.97042533333	0.0004	0.0004	1	1.0004	F	F	5.41	255.41	120	459.33288242614	79.910336925261	0.24605755198697	92	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-04-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	212	-72	43.95	35.62	39.785	174.39227066667	0.171	0.171	1	1.171	F	F	11.95	261.95	120	459.48127579657	80.129983014982	0.49355476921745	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 07:55:33	FORECAST	2021	212	-72	44.14	36.82	40.48	174.516677	0.2894	0.2894	1	1.2894	F	F	12.14	262.14	120	459.52500810817	80.194777413436	0.50132869677783	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-30 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	212	-72	40.63	36.26	38.445	174.433037	0.3454	0.3454	1	1.3454	F	F	8.63	258.63	120	459.49560782713	80.151214361447	0.36067009016848	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	44.71	35.87	40.29	174.86867333333	0.3688	0.3688	1	1.3688	F	F	12.71	244.71	119	459.12231534803	80.286110182638	0.52463565219053	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	45.22	37.51	41.365	175.80077733333	0.4595	0.4695	1	1.4695	F	F	13.22	261.22	119	459.45048900876	80.77175311392	0.54542037648299	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 15:55:50	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	44.94	37.67	41.305	175.805588	0.4399	0.4499	1	1.4499	F	F	12.94	260.94	119	459.45218072592	80.774260790402	0.53402087693838	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 11:55:54	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	45.07	37.03	41.05	174.52469333333	0.4371	0.4471	1	1.4471	F	F	13.07	261.07	119	459.00101102356	80.107010688577	0.5393175483674	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	45.01	37.28	41.145	174.220856	0.4425	0.4525	1	1.4525	F	F	13.01	262.01	119	458.8937747953	79.948866257909	0.53687374000882	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	45.4	37.23	41.315	174.45622608333	0.4203	0.4303	1	1.4303	F	F	13.4	262.4	119	458.97685344226	80.071369711139	0.55272951778615	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	46.19	37.26	41.725	174.60028	0.437	0.437	1	1.437	F	F	14.19	254.19	119	459.02767569921	80.146360704832	0.58456492963284	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	41.72	37.3	39.51	175.80850533333	0.3693	0.3893	1	1.3893	F	F	9.72	257.72	119	459.45320662415	80.775781527199	0.40327732066897	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	41.73	37.25	39.49	175.79030133333	0.3526	0.3726	1	1.3726	F	F	9.73	256.73	119	459.44680495117	80.766292289003	0.40367445538417	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	45.66	37.21	41.435	174.57538933333	0.3561	0.3761	1	1.3761	F	F	13.66	260.66	119	459.01889559484	80.133402409827	0.56325499170012	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-28 07:55:50	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	45.85	36.58	41.215	174.47473333333	0.3579	0.3779	1	1.3779	F	F	13.85	256.85	119	458.98338384569	80.081003500908	0.57091889780723	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	41.78	36.6	39.19	174.37775466667	0.371	0.401	1	1.401	F	F	9.78	258.78	119	458.9491608824	80.030524180824	0.4056616107968	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	45.96	36.8	41.38	174.294184	0.3413	0.3813	1	1.3813	F	F	13.96	253.96	119	458.91966272752	79.987028136648	0.57534390001269	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	45.2	37.13	41.165	175.306648	0.3778	0.4178	1.01	1.4278	F	F	13.2	263.2	119	459.27661352702	80.514243622214	0.54460725334368	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 15:59:36	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	41.42	37.16	39.29	175.29855733333	0.4034	0.4434	1.01	1.4534	F	F	9.42	262.42	119	459.2737647465	80.51002838111	0.39141139553495	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-27 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	47.49	38.09	42.79	174.70733733333	0.4083	0.4583	1.01	1.4683	F	F	15.49	268.49	119	459.06543350914	80.202099550153	0.63567393795129	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.04	37.51	42.775	174.85390410888	0.2255	0.2755	1.02	1.2955	F	F	16.04	264.04	119	459.11710916789	80.278418981191	0.65664726749259	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.68	38.51	43.595	174.35818591031	0.169	0.219	1.02	1.239	F	F	16.68	268.68	119	458.94225420916	80.020338881499	0.68045547183355	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 00:00:08	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.49	38.37	43.43	174.71520702847	0.1084	0.1584	0.82	0.9784	F	F	16.49	258.49	119	459.06820864911	80.206197114318	0.67345907996055	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 19:59:35	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	49.04	37.71	43.375	174.81520917363	0.1881	0.2381	0.85	1.0881	F	F	17.04	266.04	119	459.10346820232	80.258268826128	0.69353572217515	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	49.09	38.61	43.85	174.66986191103	0.1906	0.2406	0.85	1.0906	F	F	17.09	270.09	119	459.05221755476	80.182587450243	0.69533359426195	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 12:02:16	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	47.56	38.59	43.075	174.74864106749	0.149	0.199	0.85	1.049	F	F	15.56	264.56	119	459.07999808563	80.223605806732	0.63836750696867	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 07:59:40	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.8	38.6	43.7	175.02520556837	0.1038	0.1538	0.87	1.0238	F	F	16.8	264.8	119	459.17748126067	80.367633050017	0.68484160663853	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	49.01	38.42	43.715	174.9771961802	0.1024	0.1524	0.88	1.0324	F	F	17.01	271.01	119	459.16056387175	80.342628062797	0.69245475679947	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.11	40.35	44.23	173.62460946564	0.0813	0.1313	0.57	0.7013	F	F	16.11	268.11	119	458.68309507263	79.638673250477	0.65928393230801	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-25 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.2	39.19	43.695	173.57700695485	0.0832	0.1332	0.67	0.8032	F	F	16.2	277.2	119	458.66626128644	79.613916825273	0.66266251932519	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-25 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	49.95	38.81	44.38	173.48738364962	0.0884	0.1384	0.68	0.8184	F	F	17.95	280.95	119	458.63456206535	79.567310224005	0.72549297220331	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-25 11:55:44	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	47.98	38.81	43.395	174.44007154036	0.1836	0.2636	0.72	0.9836	F	F	15.98	269.98	119	458.97115295585	80.062960756579	0.65438118263308	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-25 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	47.88	37.93	42.905	174.88015006964	0.2092	0.3192	0.81	1.1292	F	F	15.88	266.88	119	459.12636078489	80.29208687499	0.65059209403074	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-25 03:56:00	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	47.96	37.94	42.95	174.55887983562	0.2092	0.3592	0.84	1.1992	F	F	15.96	270.96	119	459.01307161525	80.124807611065	0.6536245858123	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-24 23:59:38	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	49.33	33.72	41.525	175.99193580036	0.2886	0.4586	0.98	1.4386	F	F	17.33	266.33	119	459.51769581411	80.871408820849	0.70389733070811	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-24 19:55:46	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.01	32.64	40.325	175.44025551951	0.3446	0.5546	1.05	1.6046	F	F	16.01	267.01	119	459.32364920759	80.583858383131	0.65551492236601	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-24 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.11	32.66	40.385	176.12465049729	0.3446	0.6546	1.22	1.8746	F	F	16.11	257.11	119	459.5643359811	80.940608055691	0.65928393230801	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-24 12:02:13	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.66	36.7	42.68	176.21750002064	0.4335	0.7735	1.03	1.8035	F	F	16.66	258.66	119	459.59695691151	80.989026764042	0.67972196876141	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-24 07:56:13	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.74	36.43	42.585	177.03673413666	0.4335	0.7435	1.18	1.9235	F	F	16.74	262.74	119	459.88444622701	81.416440440278	0.68265174289355	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-24 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	48.48	36.94	42.71	177.25576111069	0.5095	0.8595	1.18	2.0395	F	F	16.48	255.48	119	459.96120686091	81.530773803521	0.67308912641107	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-24 00:02:12	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	49.32	36.85	43.085	177.61298572759	0.1742	0.6242	1.39	2.0142	F	F	17.32	251.32	119	460.08630893325	81.717303022019	0.70354272029852	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-04-23 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	49.49	39.21	44.35	179.85939016896	0.1488	0.5188	2.03	2.5488	F	F	17.49	268.49	119	460.87041642999	82.891872046011	0.70954445540322	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-04-23 15:56:02	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	50.97	38.84	44.905	179.25640806127	0.2028	0.5028	1.54	2.0428	F	F	18.97	267.97	119	460.66038460807	82.576325880966	0.75924296591625	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-04-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	45.5	41.17	43.335	177.5275087027	0.1302	0.2102	1.47	1.6802	F	F	13.5	281.5	119	460.05638472799	81.672663843532	0.55678258921771	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-23 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	42.58	42.07	42.325	178.62513748894	0.1606	0.5006	1.3	1.8006	F	F	10.58	260.58	119	460.44015435405	82.246185876922	0.43775307807212	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	212	-73	41.86	39.76	40.81	178.64620783822	0.1342	0.4742	1.28	1.7542	F	F	9.86	264.86	119	460.44751082767	82.257201717911	0.4088461008782	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L