Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 29, 2021

[ Wednesday, April 28, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, April 30, 2021 ]

DAY 211 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/30/2021 08:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.87°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.24°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.05°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.943 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 27 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 259 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.00 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.00 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 175 in SWE DAY: 118 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.73 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 80.39 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -74 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-30 07:55:32	OBSERVATION	2021	211	-74	58.87004	41.23994	50.05499	175.24243166667	0	0	1	1	F	F	26.87004	258.87004	118	458.72614380361	80.388284909218	0.94271893727399	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-30 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2021	211	-74	58.87004	41.23994	50.05499	175.24243166667	0	0	1	1	F	F	26.87004	258.87004	118	458.72614380361	80.388284909218	0.94271893727399	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-30 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-73	40.63	40.63	40.63	175.95282266667	0	0	1	1	F	F	8.63	240.63	119	459.50394721465	80.851016538892	0.38894187109749	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 11:55:51	FORECAST	2021	211	-73	57.37	41.74	49.555	175.69149866667	0.0114	0.0114	1	1.0114	F	F	25.37	257.37	119	459.4120545469	80.714792368877	0.92288113862342	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	211	-73	57.69	42.07	49.88	175.38274133333	0.01	0.01	1	1.01	F	F	25.69	257.69	119	459.30340365949	80.553890037532	0.92749883346464	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-29 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	211	-73	57.56	42.13	49.845	175.63642475	0.0073	0.0073	1	1.0073	F	F	25.56	257.56	119	459.39268042497	80.68608794616	0.92564902094718	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-29 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.58	41.98	50.28	175.80628133333	0.0031	0.0031	1	1.0031	F	F	26.58	248.58	118	458.92532289595	80.681954428037	0.93923285533856	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.78	41.5	50.14	176.925728	0.0032	0.0232	1	1.0232	F	F	26.78	256.78	118	459.31992146754	81.265511490546	0.94165392289504	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.14	41.87	50.005	176.89014	0.0002	0.0202	1	1.0202	F	F	26.14	256.14	118	459.30739416025	81.246949256042	0.93363140932277	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.2	41.82	50.01	175.755916	0.0006	0.0206	1	1.0206	F	F	26.2	256.2	118	458.90754301363	80.655715581669	0.93441790136366	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-28 07:55:50	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.41	41.49	49.95	175.64367066667	0	0.02	1	1.02	F	F	26.41	252.41	118	458.86791017732	80.597244094687	0.93711399682173	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.52	41.82	50.17	175.44774533333	0	0.03	1	1.03	F	F	26.52	257.52	118	458.79870359071	80.495198106846	0.93849146894399	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.76	41.35	50.055	175.474492	0.0004	0.0404	1	1.0404	F	F	26.76	248.76	118	458.80815332958	80.509127630965	0.94141526734783	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-27 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.37	41.57	49.97	176.46722133333	0	0.05	1	1.05	F	F	26.37	259.37	118	459.15843613204	81.026413375979	0.93660720102862	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-27 15:59:36	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.63	41.77	50.2	176.39768533333	0	0.05	1	1.05	F	F	26.63	261.63	118	459.13392923308	80.990162374714	0.93984534117638	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-27 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.54	41.97	50.255	175.93405733333	0.0004	0.0604	1	1.0604	F	F	26.54	261.54	118	458.9704199534	80.748528178385	0.93873937602963	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-27 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.97	41.86	50.415	176.05870277555	0.0014	0.0714	1	1.0714	F	F	26.97	256.97	118	459.01439801623	80.813479470037	0.94388336392334	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-27 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.88	42.96	50.92	175.56128991031	0.001	0.071	1	1.071	F	F	26.88	260.88	118	458.83881506885	80.554334234407	0.94283580385279	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-27 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	57.37	43.01	50.19	176.0494563618	0.0032	0.0832	0.79	0.8732	F	F	25.37	251.37	118	459.01113612583	80.808660978966	0.92288113862342	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-26 19:59:34	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	59.35	42.97	51.16	176.09681450697	0.0029	0.0729	0.83	0.9029	F	F	27.35	258.35	118	459.02784201923	80.833340749594	0.94814097269265	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-26 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	59.77	41.77	50.77	175.9871645777	0.0013	0.0713	0.83	0.9013	F	F	27.77	261.77	118	458.98915923405	80.776200705502	0.95254467872861	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-26 12:02:16	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	55.88	41.63	48.755	176.02521706749	0.0021	0.0721	0.83	0.9021	F	F	23.88	257.88	118	459.00258477974	80.796029620394	0.89841400484986	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-26 07:59:40	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	56.26	41.68	48.97	176.38460156837	0.0017	0.0717	0.85	0.9217	F	F	24.26	257.26	118	459.12931757651	80.983341749092	0.90513210913462	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	59.69	41.48	50.585	176.34665084686	0.0015	0.0715	0.86	0.9315	F	F	27.69	262.69	118	459.11594015506	80.963558396753	0.95172972791311	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-26 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	60.61	41.68	51.145	175.07573613231	0.001	0.071	0.55	0.621	F	F	28.61	260.61	118	458.66720418955	80.301498413233	0.96045434212799	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-25 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	61.49	42.15	51.82	174.95777762152	0.001	0.071	0.65	0.721	F	F	29.49	270.49	118	458.62548175869	80.240095049099	0.96755804095272	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-25 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	60.94	41.05	50.995	174.88756098295	0.001	0.071	0.66	0.731	F	F	28.94	271.94	118	458.60063989666	80.203547376747	0.9632533994543	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-25 11:55:44	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	55	40.05	47.525	175.66487820702	0.0177	0.0977	0.7	0.7977	F	F	23	263	118	458.8753992384	80.608291119412	0.88154569109766	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-25 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	55.06	40.05	47.555	176.11583540298	0.0179	0.1279	0.79	0.9179	F	F	23.06	260.06	118	459.03455119826	80.843253463112	0.88275497366227	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-25 03:56:00	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	54.96	41.37	48.165	175.79811850228	0.0179	0.1679	0.82	0.9879	F	F	22.96	263.96	118	458.92244142199	80.67770174046	0.88073463617728	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-24 23:59:38	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	56.6	41.26	48.93	177.23183046703	0.003	0.213	0.94	1.153	F	F	24.6	257.6	118	459.42762564006	81.425199059309	0.91086129803061	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-24 19:55:46	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	54.86	38.27	46.565	176.49357285284	0.0056	0.2556	1	1.2556	F	F	22.86	259.86	118	459.16772219087	81.040151828166	0.87868992805395	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-24 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	54.94	38.28	46.61	177.18474649729	0.0063	0.4663	1.06	1.5263	F	F	22.94	249.94	118	459.41106428389	81.400632963191	0.88032764678435	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-24 12:02:13	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	56.5	39.88	48.19	177.52807868731	0.0057	0.4157	0.95	1.3657	F	F	24.5	250.5	118	459.53178282147	81.57979450005	0.90920354575684	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-24 07:56:13	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	56.72	38.99	47.855	178.30139280333	0.0057	0.4157	1.07	1.4857	F	F	24.72	254.72	118	459.80330139606	81.983569054488	0.91282083996432	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-24 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	52.43	39.28	45.855	178.46323844402	0.0515	0.4315	1.1	1.5315	F	F	20.43	248.43	118	459.86005961456	82.068115469875	0.82136933061381	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-24 00:02:12	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.2	38.03	48.115	178.97199906092	0.0444	0.5444	1.3	1.8444	F	F	26.2	243.2	118	460.03832679117	82.333978990458	0.93441790136366	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-04-23 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.28	38.05	48.165	181.10480616896	0.0444	0.4444	1.96	2.4044	F	F	26.28	260.28	118	460.78314967953	83.450043008633	0.93545533007986	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-23 15:56:02	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	57.5	38.26	47.88	180.16453072794	0.0562	0.4662	1.37	1.8362	F	F	25.5	257.5	118	460.45528219094	82.95770983713	0.92478324256156	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	61.63	42.47	52.05	178.22429003604	0.0363	0.2363	1.31	1.5463	F	F	29.63	276.63	118	459.77625374808	81.94329639968	0.96858488934608	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-23 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.96	42.19	50.575	179.07624682228	0.2349	0.3949	1.25	1.6449	F	F	26.96	258.96	118	460.07482625648	82.388473143421	0.9437677187825	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	58.99	42.2	50.595	178.88701450489	0.2349	0.3949	1.23	1.6249	F	F	26.99	263.99	118	460.0085646518	82.289558777237	0.94411409337753	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-22 23:59:39	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	52.95	37.51	45.23	179.65769527393	0.3419	0.5219	1.19	1.7119	F	F	20.95	272.95	118	460.27822713429	82.692525471718	0.83487820907857	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-04-22 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	53.43	39.31	46.37	180.51046710006	0.2425	0.5425	1.17	1.7125	F	F	21.43	275.43	118	460.57599885031	83.138788687544	0.84674623372775	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-04-22 15:56:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	53.51	39.37	46.44	181.02387157191	0.2232	0.5232	1.2	1.7232	F	F	21.51	274.51	118	460.75495913956	83.407646549399	0.84866801904633	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-04-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	37.54	33.83	35.685	182.7014593419	0.6535	1.4435	1.26	2.7035	F	F	5.54	248.54	118	461.33810087439	84.287144279772	0.27525368295944	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-04-22 07:59:42	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	37.57	35.01	36.29	182.66351853666	0.5015	1.2915	1.33	2.6215	F	F	5.57	236.57	118	461.32493981845	84.267236695953	0.27627534733905	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-04-22 03:55:57	FORECAST	2021	211	-74	34.14	33.68	33.91	181.95983250451	0.1178	1.2078	1.29	2.4978	F	F	2.14	244.14	118	461.08061238869	83.898151001323	0.1726842184665	92	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L