Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 28, 2021

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DAY 210 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/29/2021 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.90°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.00°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.810 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 232 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.81 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.02 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 177 in SWE DAY: 117 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.97 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 81.44 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -75 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-29 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2021	210	-75	54.10004	29.89994	41.99999	177.43566875	0	0.21	0.81	1.02	F	F	22.10004	232.10004	117	458.97237787394	81.43807080584	0.8096941748001	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	210	-74	43.74	43.74	43.74	177.93582133333	0	0.21	0.81	1.02	F	F	11.74	221.74	118	459.6750119423	81.792650796362	0.48517815626915	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	210	-74	52.37	43.84	48.105	177.86255066667	0.0183	0.2283	0.81	1.0383	F	F	20.37	230.37	118	459.64928484232	81.754394214165	0.76550191136472	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-28 07:55:50	FORECAST	2021	210	-74	48.49	36.82	42.655	177.74423733333	0.0196	0.2296	0.81	1.0396	F	F	16.49	226.49	118	459.60773206552	81.692625808489	0.64870652074047	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	210	-74	52.82	34.39	43.605	177.57493466667	0.0331	0.2431	0.81	1.0531	F	F	20.82	230.82	118	459.54824962251	81.604250402899	0.77751196230195	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-28 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	52.14	33.01	42.575	177.63459066667	0.0393	0.2493	0.81	1.0593	F	F	20.14	222.14	117	459.04255494569	81.541836346358	0.75922782844667	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	52.17	34.75	43.46	178.618136	0.0446	0.2646	0.81	1.0746	F	F	20.17	233.17	117	459.38901638351	82.055209805297	0.76005132477517	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-27 15:59:33	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	53.59	34.49	44.04	178.597308	0.0433	0.2633	0.81	1.0733	F	F	21.59	234.59	117	459.38168852649	82.044332915326	0.79722798024414	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-27 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	53.88	34.33	44.105	178.090548	0.0451	0.2651	0.81	1.0751	F	F	21.88	234.88	117	459.20327705776	81.779763254612	0.80437472214495	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-27 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	52.58	34.19	43.385	178.22612677555	0.0472	0.2772	0.81	1.0872	F	F	20.58	229.58	117	459.25103183758	81.850532622086	0.77115065909356	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-27 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	51.94	34.97	43.455	177.76391924365	0.0473	0.2773	0.81	1.0873	F	F	19.94	233.94	117	459.08816137341	81.609310844096	0.75369881687782	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-27 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	51.04	34.68	42.86	178.17117902847	0.0459	0.0759	0.81	0.8859	F	F	19.04	226.04	117	459.23167962811	81.821849806566	0.72800014544561	92	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-26 19:59:33	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.46	34.51	42.485	178.25707717363	0.0474	0.1074	0.81	0.9174	F	F	18.46	231.46	117	459.26193116068	81.86668950582	0.71076113410747	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-26 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.35	35.18	42.765	178.11418991103	0.0479	0.1079	0.81	0.9179	F	F	18.35	234.35	117	459.21160560887	81.792103130768	0.70743469340077	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-26 12:02:16	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.11	33.79	41.95	178.02984373416	0.0473	0.1073	0.81	0.9173	F	F	18.11	234.11	117	459.18188992281	81.748080108514	0.7001160455143	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-26 07:59:40	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	49.92	34.53	42.225	178.41535890171	0.0486	0.1286	0.81	0.9386	F	F	17.92	232.92	117	459.31765739567	81.94932469414	0.69426407191659	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.01	34.73	42.37	178.42573351353	0.0485	0.1385	0.81	0.9485	F	F	18.01	235.01	117	459.3213092021	81.95474151278	0.69704236533507	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	52.35	33.32	42.835	177.25190679897	0.0473	0.1473	0.49	0.6373	F	F	20.35	232.35	117	458.90751752649	81.342232525955	0.76495994837748	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-25 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	51.42	35.07	43.245	177.17746295485	0.0512	0.1412	0.6	0.7412	F	F	19.42	241.42	117	458.88123331943	81.30341271713	0.73901104438691	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-25 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	51.72	35.2	43.46	177.08215431628	0.0538	0.1538	0.6	0.7538	F	F	19.72	242.72	117	458.84757503448	81.253717089908	0.7475392716941	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-25 11:55:44	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.21	35.32	42.765	177.49653954036	0.0566	0.1966	0.6	0.7966	F	F	18.21	240.21	117	458.99385606428	81.469821121693	0.70317554441966	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-25 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.23	35.29	42.76	177.95465806964	0.088	0.288	0.63	0.918	F	F	18.23	237.23	117	459.15539617537	81.708841527218	0.70378572734937	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-25 03:56:00	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	51.65	34.54	43.095	177.68597716895	0.132	0.352	0.64	0.992	F	F	19.65	240.65	117	459.06067767494	81.568645092512	0.74556255428232	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-24 23:59:38	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	51.29	33.83	42.56	179.13729180036	0.1651	0.3851	0.78	1.1651	F	F	19.29	233.29	117	459.57154431393	82.326401836909	0.73527006937461	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-24 19:55:46	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.76	33.66	42.21	178.14937151951	0.1986	0.4186	0.85	1.2686	F	F	18.76	236.76	117	459.22399842836	81.810466706686	0.71974181145076	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-24 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	47.62	34.3	40.96	178.85727316396	0.296	0.686	0.85	1.536	F	F	15.62	226.62	117	459.47312357167	82.180109974154	0.61985052217109	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-24 12:02:13	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	45	35.48	40.24	179.30589335398	0.3314	0.5914	0.79	1.3814	F	F	13	226	117	459.63077050832	82.414505918972	0.52948738976634	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-24 07:56:13	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	45.88	34.84	40.36	180.02022213666	0.2959	0.6059	0.89	1.4959	F	F	13.88	229.88	117	459.88141806629	82.787955036818	0.5602507099738	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-24 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	43.14	34.85	38.995	179.94377577736	0.2965	0.5865	0.91	1.4965	F	F	11.14	228.14	117	459.85461587825	82.747975889777	0.46410922716714	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-24 00:02:12	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	45.5	34.26	39.88	180.75637372759	0.4104	0.7704	1.05	1.8204	F	F	13.5	216.5	117	460.13924754378	83.173101795755	0.54700009508525	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-23 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	45.52	33.59	39.555	182.89257016896	0.327	0.657	1.72	2.377	F	F	13.52	233.52	117	460.8847047463	84.29238820261	0.54769893445842	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-23 15:56:02	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	45.79	33.49	39.64	181.92261072794	0.242	0.672	1.13	1.802	F	F	13.79	231.79	117	460.54672440753	83.783862466416	0.5571179343276	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	52.26	31.85	42.055	180.4426087027	0.0442	0.4142	1.12	1.5342	F	F	20.26	247.26	117	460.02941353772	83.008907458721	0.76251258659385	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-23 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.45	31.76	41.105	181.09158815561	0.112	0.432	1	1.432	F	F	18.45	232.45	117	460.25649327784	83.348579326615	0.71045946548319	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.51	33.6	42.055	180.90585450489	0.112	0.372	1.04	1.412	F	F	18.51	236.51	117	460.19154277966	83.251344282477	0.71226725901335	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-22 23:59:39	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	50.72	32.87	41.795	181.12139527393	0.1574	0.3674	1.02	1.3874	F	F	18.72	251.72	117	460.26691388434	83.364185641158	0.71855222029878	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-22 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	49.65	32.29	40.97	181.82235776672	0.2732	0.4632	1.03	1.4932	F	F	17.65	253.65	117	460.51174396953	83.731331067805	0.68586241465773	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-22 15:56:05	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	49.72	32.35	41.035	181.98567690524	0.2732	0.5132	1.01	1.5232	F	F	17.72	252.72	117	460.56872500428	83.816911181288	0.68805011774188	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	41.85	32.93	37.39	182.17221345598	0.7064	0.9864	1.08	2.0664	F	F	9.85	242.85	117	460.63377753999	83.914674847048	0.41922535244157	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-22 07:59:42	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	41.86	32.92	37.39	182.86190387	0.7064	0.9364	1.2	2.1364	F	F	9.86	230.86	117	460.87403188054	84.276302913917	0.4195700471513	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-22 03:55:57	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	42.44	33.88	38.16	182.01362450451	1.0464	1.2264	1.17	2.3964	F	F	10.44	242.44	117	460.57847338005	83.831557308658	0.43965951598189	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-04-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	45.75	33.62	39.685	182.45284800775	0.3981	0.7181	1.06	1.7781	F	F	13.75	238.75	117	460.73158765357	84.061790334526	0.55572443063689	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-21 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	45.81	33.8	39.805	183.49446959215	0.391	0.681	0.98	1.661	F	F	13.81	249.81	117	461.09401704968	84.608202090645	0.55781442243305	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	46.23	34.42	40.325	182.43939447326	0.2537	0.6537	0.9	1.5537	F	F	14.23	253.23	117	460.72690025757	84.054736700531	0.57239615076481	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	42.84	37.65	40.245	183.19055363556	0.2159	1.6259	1.05	2.6759	F	F	10.84	232.84	117	460.98836937396	84.448714605172	0.4536086901655	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-04-21 07:59:42	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	38.67	37.64	38.155	183.87017883348	0.1985	1.6085	1.23	2.8385	F	F	6.67	224.67	117	461.22450892652	84.805432938704	0.31405681610997	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-04-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	210	-75	38.03	37.64	37.835	183.93911353527	0.0921	1.7721	1.24	3.0121	T	F	6.03	228.03	117	461.24843790946	84.841628788597	0.29430871414347	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L