Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 23, 2021

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DAY 174 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/24/2021 08:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.61°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 12.93°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.27°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.260 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 17 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.53 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.46 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.99 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 218 in SWE DAY: 81 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.02 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 98.76 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -111 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-03-24 07:59:59	OBSERVATION	2021	174	-111	31.60994	12.93008	22.27001	217.51432875	0.0099999999999909	1.53	2.46	3.99	T	F	-0.39006	16.60994	81	454.02378713639	98.756679295505	0.25981803513878	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-24 04:00:00	OBSERVATION	2021	174	-111	31.60994	12.93008	22.27001	217.51432875	0.0099999999999909	1.53	2.46	3.99	T	F	-0.39006	16.60994	81	454.02378713639	98.756679295505	0.25981803513878	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	174	-110	34.46	26.45	30.455	217.00722226945	0.014	1.534	2.19	3.724	T	F	2.46	14.46	82	454.38474338129	98.60477100279	0.38798090992608	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-23 08:01:17	FORECAST	2021	174	-110	33.31	13.91	23.61	217.05579417878	0.015	1.535	2.19	3.725	T	F	1.31	13.31	82	454.40244814661	98.630684259245	0.33375566726383	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	174	-110	34.71	17.47	26.09	217.46069733012	0.0168	1.5368	2.19	3.7268	T	F	2.71	14.71	82	454.5499529145	98.846749732162	0.40010775928754	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-22 23:57:40	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.93	19.69	26.81	210.0969307041	0.0271	0.5171	2.46	2.9771	F	F	1.93	14.93	81	451.28743605097	94.81410517963	0.36264334720001	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-03-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	34.04	18.81	26.425	209.05818376315	0.0194	0.5094	2.46	2.9694	F	F	2.04	15.04	81	450.90010018399	94.264356003089	0.36785702578911	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-03-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.91	21.47	27.69	209.05967110033	0.0211	0.5111	2.46	2.9711	F	F	1.91	14.91	81	450.90065552452	94.265142742877	0.36169810175499	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-03-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.73	19.86	26.795	209.96111499876	0.0227	0.5127	2.46	2.9727	F	F	1.73	14.73	81	451.23685011259	94.742192178166	0.35322944217069	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-03-22 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.82	20.41	27.115	211.14431484646	0.0199	0.6999	2.46	3.1599	F	F	1.82	16.82	81	451.67695925944	95.369022094768	0.35745500184874	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-03-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.11	20.44	26.775	211.44063435999	0.0202	0.8602	2.46	3.3202	T	F	1.11	17.11	81	451.78697285366	95.526124135756	0.32463355860235	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-03-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.03	19.17	26.1	212.64972975446	0.0202	0.9302	2.46	3.3902	T	F	1.03	13.03	81	452.23501256763	96.16765320801	0.32101355952087	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-03-21 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.03	21	27.015	210.85219860017	0.0213	1.5013	2.46	3.9613	T	F	1.03	15.03	81	451.56842512011	95.214195254994	0.32101355952087	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-21 16:01:18	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.02	21.39	27.205	210.61736242982	0.0286	1.5086	2.46	3.9686	T	F	1.02	17.02	81	451.48111465858	95.089761556263	0.32056224341946	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-21 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	32.63	21.61	27.12	212.8883569484	0.0354	1.4954	2.46	3.9554	T	F	0.63	14.63	81	452.32327526944	96.294358881629	0.30317298705362	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-03-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	32.47	21.54	27.005	212.42053784249	0.035	1.585	2.46	4.045	T	F	0.47	18.47	81	452.1501893783	96.045986413321	0.29616293424482	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-03-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	32.62	21.57	27.095	212.68182335247	0.0269	1.6069	2.46	4.0669	T	F	0.62	18.62	81	452.24688636408	96.184692397388	0.30273269313439	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-03-21 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.5	22.63	28.065	207.21248389157	0.0318	1.5018	1.39	2.8918	F	F	1.5	11.5	81	450.20933532109	93.288994643057	0.3425136924669	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.81	23.24	28.525	206.19555212251	0.0866	1.5666	1.72	3.2866	T	F	1.81	20.81	81	449.82735623077	92.752400077813	0.35698462040924	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-20 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	34.03	23.64	28.835	206.26657604924	0.1246	1.5946	1.72	3.3146	T	F	2.03	21.03	81	449.85406624097	92.789857965351	0.36738203128763	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-20 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	32.58	24.37	28.475	207.1846687602	0.1355	1.5855	1.72	3.3055	T	F	0.58	19.58	81	450.19890054297	93.274310085202	0.30097438639523	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-20 07:57:58	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.28	24.31	28.795	207.60016918668	0.183	1.493	1.91	3.403	T	F	1.28	13.28	81	450.35469778589	93.493711454369	0.33238090673417	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-03-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	32.47	23.85	28.16	208.03750474873	0.0956	1.4156	2.03	3.4456	T	F	0.47	10.47	81	450.51850487942	93.724745598243	0.29616293424482	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-03-19 23:57:50	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	32.2	24.62	28.41	207.80812571778	0.1526	1.4626	2.41	3.8726	T	F	0.2	13.2	81	450.43261204999	93.603556872273	0.28450510375987	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-03-19 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.13	25.47	29.3	206.80453516617	0.1625	1.4725	2.45	3.9225	T	F	1.13	14.13	81	450.056220452	93.07366746922	0.32554116824104	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-03-19 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	33.09	24.35	28.72	206.72560081767	0.1427	1.4327	2.52	3.9527	T	F	1.09	14.09	81	450.02657580118	93.032014266415	0.32372698836475	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-03-19 11:57:59	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	34.65	24.29	29.47	209.44555657098	0.1013	1.5713	2.39	3.9613	T	F	2.65	12.65	81	451.04466621154	94.469301153047	0.39718803611129	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-19 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	30.82	23.46	27.14	210.09200314534	0.0731	1.6731	2.4	4.0731	T	F	-1.18	10.82	81	451.28560103674	94.811495912458	0.22858568631943	91	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-19 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	36.18	23.46	29.82	211.18633472398	0.071	1.731	2.47	4.201	T	F	4.18	14.18	81	451.69256488326	95.391297199767	0.47299316022252	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-03-19 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	36.84	21.56	29.2	213.27857256017	0.1033	1.7533	2.36	4.1133	T	F	4.84	0.84	81	452.46749181687	96.501620784581	0.50616622301547	91	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-03-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	36.78	22.54	29.66	213.38219492343	0.1032	1.6332	2.52	4.1532	T	F	4.78	14.78	81	452.5057647328	96.556673294191	0.50314880231266	91	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-03-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	36.91	23.83	30.37	213.63444176825	0.2044	1.7044	2.47	4.1744	T	F	4.91	14.91	81	452.59888999885	96.690711209832	0.5096860891902	91	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-03-18 12:01:14	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	32.09	24.24	28.165	214.35113791132	0.4024	1.5824	2.52	4.1024	T	F	0.090000000000003	11.09	81	452.86315672182	97.071732961435	0.27981920599149	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-03-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	32.14	24.32	28.23	215.69799641132	0.4024	1.7024	2.54	4.2424	T	F	0.14	14.14	81	453.3584830052	97.788516440295	0.28194451963373	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-03-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	31.38	23.96	27.67	215.787138831	0.2097	1.6997	2.51	4.2097	T	F	-0.62	16.38	81	453.39120664303	97.835991252637	0.25050567386826	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-03-18 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	34.39	21.39	27.89	216.97122452302	0.0789	1.3389	2.67	4.0089	T	F	2.39	4.39	81	453.82517513718	98.467003968887	0.38460431639908	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-03-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	35.14	21.38	28.26	214.82312539629	0.0789	1.0489	2.53	3.5789	T	F	3.14	12.14	81	453.03692969751	97.322809157559	0.42118660985582	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-03-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	34.68	21.59	28.135	214.93285426973	0.0953	1.0353	2.41	3.4453	T	F	2.68	9.68	81	453.07729905178	97.381197090022	0.39864718880511	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-03-17 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	38.39	21.14	29.765	211.51348293167	0.1099	0.6999	2.25	2.9499	F	F	6.39	18.39	81	451.81400643084	95.564754137498	0.58350278220555	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-03-17 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	38.42	21.09	29.755	212.19975055971	0.1099	0.7099	2.41	3.1199	F	F	6.42	13.42	81	452.06843000531	95.928808083046	0.58497783689686	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-03-17 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	38.66	22.94	30.8	212.98950444747	0.0275	0.7775	2.4	3.1775	F	F	6.66	10.66	81	452.36067125838	96.348075202846	0.5967335111366	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-03-17 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	34.79	22.48	28.635	219.83521222385	0.0575	1.1775	2.65	3.8275	T	F	2.79	-4.21	81	454.86944869012	99.996321786939	0.40400939668549	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-03-16 19:58:07	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	38.69	23.4	31.045	217.92330297349	0.056	1.176	2.77	3.946	T	F	6.69	33.69	81	454.17316735787	98.974916752559	0.598197076556	91	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-16 16:01:10	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	36.87	23.89	30.38	218.1725371696	0.0619	1.1719	2.75	3.9219	T	F	4.87	31.87	81	454.26412553372	99.10795681282	0.50767481186482	91	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-03-16 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	31.75	23.33	27.54	222.63216487759	0.028	2.098	2.56	4.658	T	F	-0.25	26.75	81	455.88197399752	101.49399079974	0.26557650829446	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-03-16 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	25.23	23.34	24.285	218.66146289114	0.028	2.098	2.16	4.258	T	F	-6.77	12.23	81	454.44239209359	99.369038254932	0.073663005426657	91	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-16 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	174	-111	25.06	24.17	24.615	217.50370075255	0.0247	1.9347	2.14	4.0747	T	F	-6.94	18.06	81	454.01990312927	98.751009145929	0.07070947169391	91	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L