Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 7, 2021
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Saturday, February 6, 2021 |
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Monday, February 8, 2021 ]
DAY 130
OF WATER YEAR 2021,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/08/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.82°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.061
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -75
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.50 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.82 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 142 in
SWE DAY: 38
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 392.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.64 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -154
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-02-08 07:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 22.96994 | 18.66992 | 20.81993 | 141.751685 | 0.5 | 3.02 | 3.8 | 6.82 | T | T | -9.03006 | -75.03006 | 38 | 392.53468612825 | 55.642453179625 | 0.06122658618318 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-08 03:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 22.96994 | 18.66992 | 20.81993 | 141.751685 | 0.5 | 3.02 | 3.8 | 6.82 | T | T | -9.03006 | -75.03006 | 38 | 392.53468612825 | 55.642453179625 | 0.06122658618318 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-07 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 22.69 | 16.69 | 19.69 | 138.6611761255 | 0.2858 | 2.8058 | 3.8 | 6.6058 | T | T | -9.31 | -75.31 | 38 | 390.91624650488 | 54.204906506933 | 0.056787228323686 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-07 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 24.72 | 17.1 | 20.91 | 139.23830674133 | 0.3573 | 2.8773 | 3.8 | 6.6773 | T | T | -7.28 | -73.28 | 38 | 391.21944413935 | 54.472732966247 | 0.095336054710379 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-07 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 24.01 | 16.61 | 20.31 | 139.55774261792 | 0.388 | 2.908 | 3.8 | 6.708 | T | T | -7.99 | -73.99 | 38 | 391.38706993584 | 54.621095970088 | 0.08011595112291 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-06 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 22.56 | 17.44 | 20 | 138.82506338781 | 0.5015 | 2.4915 | 3.8 | 6.2915 | T | T | -9.44 | -72.44 | 38 | 391.0023904557 | 54.280931639797 | 0.054813494769131 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-06 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 22.93 | 18.05 | 20.49 | 138.2891922193 | 0.4035 | 2.3935 | 3.8 | 6.1935 | T | T | -9.07 | -72.07 | 38 | 390.72058773854 | 54.032434461811 | 0.060577164928918 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-06 15:00:00 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 23.43 | 18.22 | 20.825 | 138.00043285164 | 0.3719 | 2.3619 | 3.8 | 6.1619 | T | T | -8.57 | -71.57 | 38 | 390.5685765091 | 53.898632616506 | 0.069103566907071 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-06 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 24.35 | 18.28 | 21.315 | 140.54009299526 | 0.3667 | 2.3567 | 3.8 | 6.1567 | T | T | -7.65 | -70.65 | 38 | 391.90171246767 | 55.077903115208 | 0.087158991900674 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-06 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 24.06 | 18.17 | 21.115 | 141.37821797191 | 0.3388 | 2.5688 | 3.8 | 6.3688 | T | T | -7.94 | -73.94 | 38 | 392.3397828791 | 55.468299342934 | 0.081123922956514 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-06 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 23.98 | 17.91 | 20.945 | 140.97996971093 | 0.3228 | 2.5528 | 3.8 | 6.3528 | T | T | -8.02 | -72.02 | 38 | 392.13174311802 | 55.282721267474 | 0.079515713715644 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 23.8 | 18.16 | 20.98 | 137.69856204225 | 0.4565 | 1.3065 | 3.8 | 5.1065 | T | F | -8.2 | -69.2 | 38 | 390.40954379383 | 53.75883278798 | 0.075985307433151 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 24.23 | 18.46 | 21.345 | 136.97289714586 | 0.3207 | 1.2007 | 3.8 | 5.0007 | T | F | -7.77 | -69.77 | 38 | 390.02674702622 | 53.423093504559 | 0.08462240082492 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 24.29 | 18.32 | 21.305 | 137.06063504576 | 0.3228 | 1.2228 | 3.8 | 5.0228 | T | F | -7.71 | -63.71 | 38 | 390.07306730585 | 53.463662319187 | 0.085883711502523 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 23.74 | 18.09 | 20.915 | 137.61310193984 | 0.3403 | 1.2303 | 3.8 | 5.0303 | T | F | -8.26 | -69.26 | 38 | 390.36449922981 | 53.719269626207 | 0.074835328295748 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 26.15 | 17.78 | 21.965 | 138.41099812833 | 0.4082 | 1.4582 | 3.8 | 5.2582 | T | F | -5.85 | -69.85 | 38 | 390.7846764426 | 54.088897119678 | 0.13221876156738 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 25.56 | 17.73 | 21.645 | 140.00728958304 | 0.4198 | 1.7998 | 3.8 | 5.5998 | T | F | -6.44 | -71.44 | 38 | 391.6227420021 | 54.830038646793 | 0.11596082126314 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 23:02:25 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 24.37 | 17.04 | 20.705 | 149.20105874231 | 0.5655 | 2.6655 | 4.16 | 6.8255 | T | T | -7.63 | -73.63 | 38 | 396.38395564495 | 59.140905850694 | 0.08758720192009 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 23.52 | 17.13 | 20.325 | 149.65080441396 | 0.5443 | 2.6843 | 4.16 | 6.8443 | T | T | -8.48 | -70.48 | 38 | 396.61402686908 | 59.353608162818 | 0.070731755753733 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 14:55:14 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 27.45 | 16.75 | 22.1 | 149.19284331542 | 0.5538 | 2.6238 | 4.16 | 6.7838 | T | T | -4.55 | -69.55 | 38 | 396.37975052864 | 59.137022014026 | 0.17336440065681 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 25.83 | 19.25 | 22.54 | 150.26225144695 | 0.475 | 2.365 | 4.16 | 6.525 | T | T | -6.17 | -70.17 | 38 | 396.92639654553 | 59.643054003658 | 0.12321629406715 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 27.13 | 18.8 | 22.965 | 148.90305879777 | 0.3599 | 2.1199 | 4.14 | 6.2599 | T | T | -4.87 | -67.87 | 38 | 396.23136640742 | 59.000062449684 | 0.16255156547664 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 02:55:21 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 28.22 | 19.92 | 24.07 | 147.82666267495 | 0.2727 | 2.0327 | 4.02 | 6.0527 | T | T | -3.78 | -63.78 | 38 | 395.67924063102 | 58.491941632241 | 0.20120409277432 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 22:55:44 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 26.51 | 18.71 | 22.61 | 139.28107180162 | 0.7413 | 2.7713 | 3.64 | 6.4113 | T | T | -5.49 | -64.49 | 38 | 391.24189323442 | 54.492590223387 | 0.14287514229491 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 19:02:26 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 26.07 | 19.16 | 22.615 | 136.75232512175 | 0.6878 | 2.5378 | 3.58 | 6.1178 | T | T | -5.93 | -60.93 | 38 | 389.91025279476 | 53.321133658492 | 0.12992686389355 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 14:55:45 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 28.15 | 23.83 | 25.99 | 133.07472952725 | 0.4646 | 1.9946 | 3.54 | 5.5346 | T | F | -3.85 | -58.85 | 38 | 387.95829876399 | 51.627445675868 | 0.1985678863119 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 30.08 | 24.74 | 27.41 | 130.01047258787 | 0.0726 | 1.1926 | 3.53 | 4.7226 | T | F | -1.92 | -57.92 | 38 | 386.31790236827 | 50.225373056052 | 0.2785751214258 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 28.5 | 23.87 | 26.185 | 129.65404544785 | 0.0568 | 0.9168 | 3.63 | 4.5468 | T | F | -3.5 | -61.5 | 38 | 386.12626508543 | 50.062832321995 | 0.21195648660665 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 31.22 | 23.87 | 27.545 | 129.71287058703 | 0.0616 | 0.8316 | 3.73 | 4.5616 | T | F | -0.78 | -59.78 | 38 | 386.15790507497 | 50.089650367149 | 0.33224336048433 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 23:02:25 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 38.66 | 27.27 | 32.965 | 125.93807286705 | 0.0199 | 0.4299 | 3.61 | 4.0399 | T | F | 6.66 | -51.34 | 38 | 384.11796093846 | 48.375075754211 | 0.71466003012139 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 38.61 | 28.27 | 33.44 | 126.46402821548 | 0.0109 | 0.5709 | 3.61 | 4.1809 | T | F | 6.61 | -50.39 | 38 | 384.40336736437 | 48.613198296494 | 0.71237084892316 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 40.65 | 26.62 | 33.635 | 126.03607483755 | 0.0016 | 0.3116 | 3.66 | 3.9716 | T | F | 8.65 | -47.35 | 38 | 384.1711700108 | 48.419426333909 | 0.79808097805609 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-02-02 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 37.04 | 27.95 | 32.495 | 131.01985090132 | 0.0133 | 0.3633 | 3.7 | 4.0633 | T | F | 5.04 | -49.96 | 38 | 386.8596661862 | 50.68629578345 | 0.63650505921665 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 37.04 | 27.95 | 32.495 | 131.92724270596 | 0.0133 | 0.4033 | 3.86 | 4.2633 | T | F | 5.04 | -51.96 | 38 | 387.3455066188 | 51.101424662762 | 0.63650505921665 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 34 | 26.94 | 30.47 | 133.09809137977 | 0.0188 | 0.4288 | 3.99 | 4.4188 | T | F | 2 | -56 | 38 | 387.97075614712 | 51.638167154348 | 0.47616431832313 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 34.66 | 23.53 | 29.095 | 133.44255043584 | 0.0152 | 0.3652 | 4.34 | 4.7052 | T | F | 2.66 | -48.34 | 38 | 388.15434837472 | 51.796306209882 | 0.51156557151679 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 34.67 | 23.53 | 29.1 | 133.41566758408 | 0.0152 | 0.2852 | 4.46 | 4.7452 | T | F | 2.67 | -49.33 | 38 | 388.14002594014 | 51.783960676904 | 0.51210195768799 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 33.22 | 21.64 | 27.43 | 131.33315184441 | 0.0247 | 0.2747 | 4.05 | 4.3247 | T | F | 1.22 | -44.78 | 38 | 387.02754198533 | 50.829546939528 | 0.43458943056665 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 33.51 | 22.03 | 27.77 | 136.00087243072 | 0.253 | 0.423 | 4.2 | 4.623 | T | F | 1.51 | -51.49 | 38 | 389.51288577388 | 52.974092288255 | 0.44998734840504 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 33.51 | 22.03 | 27.77 | 138.30333544516 | 0.253 | 0.453 | 4.47 | 4.923 | T | F | 1.51 | -50.49 | 38 | 390.72803027532 | 54.038989838994 | 0.44998734840504 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 32.99 | 21.65 | 27.32 | 138.63056405249 | 0.1774 | 0.3774 | 4.58 | 4.9574 | T | F | 0.99 | -56.01 | 38 | 390.90015192667 | 54.1907085498 | 0.42244628083722 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 32.04 | 19.59 | 25.815 | 139.97577058822 | 0.1336 | 0.2936 | 5.27 | 5.5636 | T | F | 0.039999999999999 | -50.96 | 38 | 391.6062271454 | 54.81538341182 | 0.37318649650163 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 32.05 | 20.06 | 26.055 | 141.15471347282 | 0.1014 | 0.2514 | 5.51 | 5.7614 | T | F | 0.049999999999997 | -51.95 | 38 | 392.22305291961 | 55.364132652304 | 0.37369588954516 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 29.64 | 26.15 | 27.895 | 140.50683165459 | 0.0683 | 0.2083 | 5.39 | 5.5983 | T | F | -2.36 | -58.36 | 38 | 391.88430821327 | 55.062422522196 | 0.25905157362397 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 23.8 | 21.81 | 22.805 | 145.61813447924 | 0.0028 | 0.1128 | 5.96 | 6.0728 | T | F | -8.2 | -72.2 | 38 | 394.54166286899 | 57.452420921317 | 0.075985307433151 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 23.98 | 22.53 | 23.255 | 149.89167077 | 0.0016 | 0.1116 | 6.54 | 6.6516 | T | F | -8.02 | -65.02 | 38 | 396.73713607403 | 59.467592182641 | 0.079515713715644 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 130 | -154 | 26.19 | 25.04 | 25.615 | 152.0109704072 | 0.0002 | 0.1002 | 7.06 | 7.1602 | T | T | -5.81 | -64.81 | 38 | 397.8170906937 | 60.472562000919 | 0.13337507023333 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |