Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 10, 2021

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DAY 133 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/11/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 19.02°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 10.41°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 14.72°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.025 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -96 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.81 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.84 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 140 in SWE DAY: 41 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 393.83 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 55.04 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -151 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 1.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-02-11 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	133	-151	19.02002	10.41008	14.71505	139.74545541667	0	0.03	6.81	6.84	T	T	-12.97998	-95.97998	41	393.82527306902	55.035292139624	0.025199832099792	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-11 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	133	-151	19.02002	10.41008	14.71505	139.74545541667	0	0.03	6.81	6.84	T	T	-12.97998	-95.97998	41	393.82527306902	55.035292139624	0.025199832099792	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-10 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	24.19	15.68	19.935	141.11279701359	0.0198	0.0498	6.81	6.8598	T	T	-7.81	-90.81	41	394.53280496389	55.673627622071	0.096174892487792	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-10 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.01	12.45	18.73	140.83326139643	0.0172	0.0472	6.81	6.8572	T	T	-6.99	-89.99	41	394.38835881919	55.542998829292	0.11501216088123	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-10 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.04	15.43	20.235	140.91720836005	0.0336	0.0636	6.81	6.8736	T	T	-6.96	-89.96	41	394.43174802141	55.582220819752	0.11574773977134	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-09 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.23	15.51	20.87	144.18084415306	0.0338	0.0838	6.81	6.8938	T	T	-5.77	-88.77	41	396.11145385406	57.111683795375	0.14764557956393	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-09 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.97	16.2	21.085	144.18455056633	0.0337	0.0837	6.81	6.8937	T	T	-6.03	-89.03	41	396.11335354095	57.113425853624	0.14021888261701	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-09 15:00:01	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.21	17.41	21.81	144.27658173598	0.0499	0.0999	6.81	6.9099	T	T	-5.79	-88.79	41	396.16051750741	57.156685284728	0.14706513727779	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-09 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.21	16.62	21.415	144.30517888786	0.0305	0.0805	6.81	6.8905	T	T	-5.79	-88.79	41	396.17517067876	57.170128875728	0.14706513727779	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-09 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.14	16.67	21.405	144.40549200322	0.0309	0.0809	6.81	6.8909	T	T	-5.86	-88.86	41	396.22656267229	57.217291727438	0.14504561847967	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-09 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.3	16.66	20.98	144.54873992898	0.0511	0.1011	6.81	6.9111	T	T	-6.7	-88.7	41	396.29992815049	57.284655248098	0.12226248207047	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-08 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.6	16.36	20.98	142.5296025616	0.066	0.116	6.81	6.926	T	T	-6.4	-86.4	41	395.2633443808	56.336727381763	0.13009324242998	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-08 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.91	16.8	21.355	142.47505540059	0.0598	0.1098	6.81	6.9198	T	T	-6.09	-86.09	41	395.23526716993	56.311166586304	0.13854160407483	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-08 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.71	15.89	21.3	142.38086843878	0.0383	0.0883	6.81	6.8983	T	T	-5.29	-85.29	41	395.18677689623	56.267036490008	0.16203517267107	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-08 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.23	15.34	20.785	142.48957959595	0.032	0.082	6.81	6.892	T	T	-5.77	-85.77	41	395.24274362914	56.317972378067	0.14764557956393	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-08 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.02	14.85	20.435	142.27062064713	0.0329	0.0829	6.81	6.8929	T	T	-5.98	-85.98	41	395.13000328709	56.215390803957	0.14162707937897	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-08 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	20.36	14.74	17.55	142.53008997493	0.0551	0.1251	6.81	6.9351	T	T	-11.64	-91.64	41	395.26359525088	56.336955794923	0.036959156585888	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	24.12	14.08	19.1	138.63202713461	0.1516	0.2416	6.6	6.8416	T	T	-7.88	-87.88	41	393.24731085005	54.516671868375	0.094678272935199	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	24.52	13.73	19.125	138.735321434	0.1608	0.2508	6.6	6.8508	T	T	-7.48	-88.48	41	393.30099802547	54.564740381376	0.10346419018833	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.55	15.19	20.37	139.36395654036	0.2512	0.3512	6.6	6.9512	T	T	-6.45	-87.45	41	393.62742735888	54.857475679538	0.12876462906495	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	20.54	8.78	14.66	141.87087344798	0.2856	0.4156	6.6	7.0156	T	T	-11.46	-94.46	41	394.9240146135	56.028214898802	0.038834885081368	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	20.12	8.73	14.425	142.43418991312	0.2728	0.4128	6.67	7.0828	T	T	-11.88	-94.88	41	395.21422981565	56.292018665929	0.034573733253995	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	22.39	10.52	16.455	141.28218576147	0.1046	0.2246	6.7	6.9246	T	T	-9.61	-92.61	41	394.62028435455	55.752816319425	0.062919022752685	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.23	12.42	18.825	140.52519853908	0.08	0.24	6.28	6.52	T	F	-6.77	-84.77	41	394.22905278113	55.399115911944	0.12048379057855	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.23	12.42	18.825	139.61963532048	0.035	0.185	6.18	6.365	T	F	-6.77	-86.77	41	393.760043824	54.976633722483	0.12048379057855	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.23	12.42	18.825	139.42530586853	0.035	0.195	6.15	6.345	T	F	-6.77	-89.77	41	393.65925612106	54.886062192655	0.12048379057855	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	24.24	11.9	18.07	142.22408676641	0.0546	0.2346	6.15	6.3846	T	F	-7.76	-86.76	41	395.10603525656	56.19359504026	0.097254469767957	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	17.19	8.58	12.885	143.91846492271	0.0861	0.3161	6.36	6.6761	T	T	-14.81	-101.81	41	395.97692841874	56.988391682834	0.014328192984737	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	17.11	8.37	12.74	143.27256295243	0.0869	0.2769	6.34	6.6169	T	T	-14.89	-94.89	41	395.64538335334	56.68512809333	0.013963436618476	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-05 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.84	10.9	18.87	139.44991518213	0.0252	0.2352	5.1	5.3352	T	F	-5.16	-79.16	41	393.67202233233	54.89753012382	0.1660841006349	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-05 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.84	15.56	21.2	138.33511839145	0.0163	0.1763	4.99	5.1663	T	F	-5.16	-80.16	41	393.09291417968	54.378554821884	0.1660841006349	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-05 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	26.65	12.67	19.66	137.94458051888	0.0132	0.1232	5.01	5.1332	T	F	-5.35	-73.35	41	392.88965167568	54.196998190608	0.16018824982428	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-05 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	31.05	19.08	25.065	139.4556083034	0.0385	0.2485	5.02	5.2685	T	F	-0.95	-75.95	41	393.67497555537	54.9001831899	0.33004675410956	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-05 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	31.05	19.08	25.065	139.94904743462	0.0385	0.2085	5.25	5.4585	T	F	-0.95	-79.95	41	393.9307776703	55.130237090137	0.33004675410956	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-05 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	31.19	18.91	25.05	141.36159700065	0.022	0.192	5.59	5.782	T	F	-0.81	-75.81	41	394.6612826627	55.789949191526	0.33645254866686	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-04 23:02:26	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	32.81	22.17	27.49	151.6798575023	0.0452	0.3652	6.82	7.1852	T	T	0.81	-75.19	41	399.91864611594	60.65960325538	0.41360450711301	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-04 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	33	22.37	27.685	151.52703383135	0.0452	0.2852	6.83	7.1152	T	T	1	-70	41	399.84178035564	60.586838979136	0.42294282682066	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-04 14:55:16	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	32.94	21.84	27.39	150.72475240861	0.0266	0.2466	6.77	7.0166	T	T	0.94	-68.06	41	399.43776683431	60.205158508748	0.41998894123997	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-04 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	30.81	17.95	24.38	151.77131482496	0.0015	0.2115	6.52	6.7315	T	T	-1.19	-67.19	41	399.96463215961	60.703158106344	0.31918122041472	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-04 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	30.8	17.95	24.375	150.43282601902	0.0015	0.2115	6.25	6.4615	T	F	-1.2	-65.2	41	399.29055389985	60.066406425855	0.31873175779067	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-04 02:55:21	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	35.24	21.67	28.455	148.85382580546	0.004	0.134	6.04	6.174	T	F	3.24	-55.76	41	398.4923993374	59.317118195771	0.53487754099707	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-02-03 22:55:44	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.49	11.9	18.695	141.35060523278	0.0012	0.2412	6.4	6.6412	T	T	-6.51	-76.51	41	394.65560834337	55.784809097847	0.12718271961108	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-03 19:02:26	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.5	11.9	18.7	138.41236494637	0.0012	0.1912	6.11	6.3012	T	F	-6.5	-73.5	41	393.1330946679	54.41448137167	0.12744543075921	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-03 14:55:45	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	30.91	15.13	23.02	134.44691093377	0.0002	0.1702	5.52	5.6902	T	F	-1.09	-63.09	41	391.06020876074	52.576837056996	0.3236903701812	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-03 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.91	19.08	22.495	131.74740326498	0.0663	0.2363	4.71	4.9463	T	F	-6.09	-49.09	41	389.63708670997	51.33367438977	0.13854160407483	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-03 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	25.82	21.12	23.47	130.97304176003	0.0341	0.2041	4.54	4.7441	T	F	-6.18	-53.18	41	389.22705581302	50.978251435133	0.13605133800289	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-03 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	133	-151	20.14	19.33	19.735	129.75976118328	0.0008	0.0108	4.55	4.5608	T	F	-11.86	-59.86	41	388.58298967452	50.422435940052	0.034767578162176	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L