Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 5, 2021

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DAY 5 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/06/2021 12:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.86°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.86°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.86°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.044 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 352 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.45 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 89 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.47 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 85 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 17.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	32.86	32.86	32.86	0	0.004	0.004	6.45	6.454	T	F	0.86	351.86	88	354.46750114127	0	0.043931167738785	93	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	WET	M
2021-10-05 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	5	85	43.34	32.67	38.005	0	0.2617	0.2617	6.45	6.7117	T	T	11.34	362.34	88	354.46750114127	0	0.23241494342879	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2021-10-05 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	5	85	45.21	34.13	39.67	0	0.2803	0.2803	6.45	6.7303	T	T	13.21	364.21	88	354.46750114127	0	0.28874633178688	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-05 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	5	85	43.63	33.94	38.785	0	0.2667	0.2667	6.45	6.7167	T	T	11.63	362.63	88	354.46750114127	0	0.24073138001125	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2021-10-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	45.17	34.8	39.985	0	0.2868	0.2868	6.45	6.7368	T	T	13.17	353.17	89	355.39078927845	0	0.28747727432152	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	47.01	34.54	40.775	0	0.2862	0.2862	6.45	6.7362	T	T	15.01	366.01	89	355.39078927845	0	0.34837516744168	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-04 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	5	85	47.35	34.58	40.965	0	0.2532	0.2532	6.45	6.7032	T	T	15.35	366.35	89	355.39078927845	0	0.36013304544368	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	48.75	34.94	41.845	0	0.2169	0.2169	6.45	6.6669	T	T	16.75	367.75	89	355.39078927845	0	0.40984054048226	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	49.38	35.27	42.325	0	0.2321	0.2321	6.45	6.6821	T	T	17.38	368.38	89	355.39078927845	0	0.43274536234152	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-04 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	5	85	50.36	35.53	42.945	0	0.1989	0.1989	6.45	6.6489	T	T	18.36	366.36	89	355.39078927845	0	0.46880027645889	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	49.99	34.99	42.49	0	0.3029	0.3029	6.45	6.7529	T	T	17.99	363.99	89	355.39078927845	0	0.45514133593918	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	51.38	35.47	43.425	0	0.3001	0.3101	6.45	6.7601	T	T	19.38	374.38	89	355.39078927845	0	0.50659636788417	93	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2021-10-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	49.31	36.1	42.705	0	0.2917	0.3017	6.45	6.7517	T	T	17.31	372.31	89	355.39078927845	0	0.43018770871459	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-03 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	46.48	35.31	40.895	0	0.2732	0.2832	6.45	6.7332	T	T	14.48	368.48	89	355.39078927845	0	0.3303372194502	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	46.96	36.19	41.575	0	0.1558	0.1558	6.45	6.6058	T	F	14.96	369.96	89	355.39078927845	0	0.34665796394246	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-10-03 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	5	85	46	35.91	40.955	0	0.153	0.153	6.45	6.603	T	F	14	367	89	355.39078927845	0	0.31433279917036	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-10-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	45.96	34.85	40.405	0	0.1387	0.1387	6.45	6.5887	T	F	13.96	354.96	89	355.39078927845	0	0.31301417360312	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-10-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	44.76	34.81	39.785	0	0.0891	0.0891	6.45	6.5391	T	F	12.76	365.76	89	355.39078927845	0	0.27462378415567	93	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2021-10-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	44.38	34.44	39.41	0	0.0533	0.0533	6.45	6.5033	T	F	12.38	364.38	89	355.39078927845	0	0.26296924339714	93	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2021-10-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	44.05	34.27	39.16	0	0.0826	0.0826	6.45	6.5326	T	F	12.05	363.05	89	355.39078927845	0	0.25305710758916	93	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2021-10-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	40.74	35.52	38.13	0	0.0902	0.0902	6.45	6.5402	T	F	8.74	360.74	89	355.39078927845	0	0.16534523337061	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2021-10-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	5	85	45.28	35.51	40.395	0	0.0963	0.0963	6.45	6.5463	T	F	13.28	362.28	89	355.39078927845	0	0.29097350072004	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-10-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	41.91	32.34	37.125	0	0.2325	0.2325	6.45	6.6825	T	T	9.91	357.91	89	355.39078927845	0	0.19382208110271	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2021-10-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	43.58	32.79	38.185	0	0.3405	0.3405	6.45	6.7905	T	T	11.58	367.58	89	355.39078927845	0	0.23928607536322	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2021-10-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	42.52	34.44	38.48	0	0.3616	0.3616	6.45	6.8116	T	T	10.52	369.52	89	355.39078927845	0	0.20978479083309	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2021-10-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	43.08	33.23	38.155	0	0.1944	0.1944	6.45	6.6444	T	T	11.08	369.08	89	355.39078927845	0	0.22509650104158	93	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2021-10-01 10:03:08	FORECAST	2022	5	85	44.09	33.23	38.66	0	0.019	0.019	6.45	6.469	T	F	12.09	367.09	89	355.39078927845	0	0.25424803626616	93	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2021-10-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	44.08	35.67	39.875	0	0.0187	0.0187	6.45	6.4687	T	F	12.08	372.08	89	355.39078927845	0	0.25763942340499	92	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2021-10-01 04:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	44.04	35.46	39.75	0	0.0187	0.0187	6.45	6.4687	T	F	12.04	371.04	89	355.39078927845	0	0.25643592824209	92	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2021-10-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	56.92	45.2	51.06	0	0.0084	0.0084	5.96	5.9684	T	F	24.92	375.92	89	355.39078927845	0	0.70791407839561	92	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	57.28	45.74	51.51	0	0	0	6.23	6.23	T	F	25.28	389.28	89	355.39078927845	0	0.71934287333782	92	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	57.27	45.73	51.5	0	0	0.03	6.25	6.28	T	F	25.27	387.27	89	355.39078927845	0	0.71902834607023	92	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 14:50:15	FORECAST	2022	5	85	59.04	46.4	52.72	0	0	0.03	6.25	6.28	T	F	27.04	389.04	89	355.39078927845	0	0.77189991193189	92	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 14:45:45	FORECAST	2022	5	85	59.04	46.4	52.72	0	0	0.03	6.25	6.28	T	F	27.04	389.04	89	355.39078927845	0	0.77189991193189	92	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 14:44:56	FORECAST	2022	5	85	59.04	46.4	52.72	0	0	0.03	6.25	6.28	T	F	27.04	389.04	89	355.39078927845	0	0.77189991193189	92	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 14:43:20	FORECAST	2022	5	85	59.04	46.4	52.72	0	0	0.03	6.48	6.51	T	F	27.04	391.04	89	355.39078927845	0	0.77189991193189	92	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 14:40:27	FORECAST	2022	5	85	59.04	46.4	52.72	0	0	0.03	6.48	6.51	T	F	27.04	391.04	89	355.39078927845	0	0.77189991193189	92	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	56.78	45.89	51.335	0	0.0009	0.0309	6.48	6.5109	T	F	24.78	391.78	89	355.39078927845	0	0.70341184424392	92	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	55.74	45.25	50.495	0	0.0009	0.0309	6.63	6.6609	T	F	23.74	384.74	89	355.39078927845	0	0.66901928506386	92	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2021-09-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	5	85	55.75	45.26	50.505	0	0.0009	0.0309	6.72	6.7509	T	T	23.75	381.75	89	355.39078927845	0	0.66935749637257	92	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	52.34	38.03	45.185	0	0.1664	0.1664	6.3	6.4664	T	F	20.34	382.34	89	355.39078927845	0	0.54775834850781	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2021-09-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	52.2	38.26	45.23	0	0.1664	0.1664	6.26	6.4264	T	F	20.2	386.2	89	355.39078927845	0	0.54258110048458	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2021-09-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	5	85	51.97	37.66	44.815	0	0.1738	0.1838	6.23	6.4138	T	F	19.97	386.97	89	355.39078927845	0	0.53406031991339	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2021-09-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	51.75	34.51	43.13	0	0.1296	0.1496	6.26	6.4096	T	F	19.75	391.75	89	355.39078927845	0	0.52589531810942	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2021-09-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	51.66	34.76	43.21	0	0.1304	0.1304	6.38	6.5104	T	F	19.66	389.66	89	355.39078927845	0	0.52255175601615	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2021-09-29 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	5	85	53.27	35.84	44.555	0	0.1306	0.1306	6.35	6.4806	T	F	21.27	399.27	89	355.39078927845	0	0.58190310198659	92	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2021-09-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	47.65	37.62	42.635	0	0.185	0.185	5.41	5.595	T	F	15.65	389.65	89	355.39078927845	0	0.37541100099123	92	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	5	85	47.09	38.54	42.815	0	0.1803	0.1803	5.61	5.7903	T	F	15.09	390.09	89	355.39078927845	0	0.35576511651185	92	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	48.02	40.2	44.11	0	0.1763	0.1763	5.74	5.9163	T	F	16.02	388.02	89	355.39078927845	0	0.38857456137096	92	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-09-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	50.5	42.65	46.575	0	0.0038	0.0038	5.86	5.8638	T	F	18.5	397.5	89	355.39078927845	0	0.47939840453949	92	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2021-09-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	5	85	43.88	41.89	42.885	0	0	0	5.93	5.93	T	F	11.88	388.88	89	355.39078927845	0	0.25165135877438	92	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2021-09-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	5	85	43.92	41.92	42.92	0	0	0	6.17	6.17	T	F	11.92	387.92	89	355.39078927845	0	0.25284307069436	92	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH