Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 8, 2021
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Saturday, January 9, 2021 ]
DAY 100
OF WATER YEAR 2021,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/09/2021 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.51°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.252
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 14
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.42 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.82 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 128 in
SWE DAY: 8
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 359.40 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 45.91 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -184
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-01-09 07:00:08 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 28.45994 | 20.57 | 24.51497 | 127.74416708333 | 0.41999999999996 | 1.25 | 10.57 | 11.82 | T | T | -3.54006 | 14.45994 | 8 | 359.39995294559 | 45.911247638824 | 0.25235367103559 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-09 03:00:09 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 28.45994 | 20.57 | 24.51497 | 127.74416708333 | 0.41999999999996 | 1.25 | 10.57 | 11.82 | T | T | -3.54006 | 14.45994 | 8 | 359.39995294559 | 45.911247638824 | 0.25235367103559 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-08 10:57:00 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 27.11 | 23.28 | 25.195 | 130.71019097749 | 0.1739 | 1.0039 | 10.57 | 11.5739 | T | T | -4.89 | 13.11 | 8 | 361.18998964819 | 47.211212526075 | 0.20532631835555 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-08 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 29.12 | 22.32 | 25.72 | 131.15457561822 | 0.2928 | 1.1228 | 10.57 | 11.6928 | T | T | -2.88 | 15.12 | 8 | 361.45702225903 | 47.406742358609 | 0.27725754657341 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-08 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 31.06 | 22.71 | 26.885 | 131.33016934567 | 0.4156 | 1.2456 | 10.57 | 11.8156 | T | T | -0.94 | 17.06 | 8 | 361.56245422116 | 47.484058341902 | 0.35666833404067 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-07 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 32.83 | 23.98 | 28.405 | 136.32940133917 | 0.3915 | 1.2115 | 10.57 | 11.7815 | T | T | 0.83 | 19.83 | 8 | 364.54450682598 | 49.698134377068 | 0.43511943143244 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-07 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 31.25 | 22.04 | 26.645 | 136.38960915437 | 0.4358 | 1.2558 | 10.57 | 11.8258 | T | T | -0.75 | 18.25 | 8 | 364.58019065139 | 49.724949708369 | 0.3648677001159 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-07 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 30.99 | 21.27 | 26.13 | 136.48810988813 | 0.4194 | 1.2394 | 10.57 | 11.8094 | T | T | -1.01 | 17.99 | 8 | 364.63855806751 | 49.768827582968 | 0.35366389032314 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-07 10:57:01 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 30.9 | 21.37 | 26.135 | 137.12292842158 | 0.5605 | 1.3805 | 10.57 | 11.9505 | T | T | -1.1 | 17.9 | 8 | 365.01437485889 | 50.051839996623 | 0.34981440424586 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-07 07:00:11 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 29.93 | 21.49 | 25.71 | 136.65542985238 | 0.5446 | 1.3646 | 10.57 | 11.9346 | T | T | -2.07 | 19.93 | 8 | 364.73767141694 | 49.843383270838 | 0.309370874943 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-07 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 30.54 | 21.07 | 25.805 | 136.65197993632 | 0.5124 | 1.3224 | 10.57 | 11.8924 | T | T | -1.46 | 19.54 | 8 | 364.73562825622 | 49.84184575453 | 0.33457361239182 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-06 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.4 | 22.51 | 27.955 | 129.70324191145 | 0.4482 | 0.7782 | 10.57 | 11.3482 | T | T | 1.4 | 24.4 | 8 | 360.58379325278 | 46.768886965612 | 0.46110392124682 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-06 18:56:53 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 30.6 | 22.88 | 26.74 | 129.67265053607 | 0.4573 | 0.7873 | 10.57 | 11.3573 | T | T | -1.4 | 20.6 | 8 | 360.56535257028 | 46.755464959261 | 0.33709573132573 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-06 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 32.86 | 23.09 | 27.975 | 129.64326495106 | 0.4573 | 0.7973 | 10.57 | 11.3673 | T | T | 0.86 | 21.86 | 8 | 360.54763739682 | 46.742572882515 | 0.43648107385694 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-06 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 32.53 | 22.33 | 27.43 | 130.64883188277 | 0.4496 | 0.7796 | 10.57 | 11.3496 | T | T | 0.53 | 21.53 | 8 | 361.15309502087 | 47.184229995325 | 0.42154789669734 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-06 06:59:29 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 32.79 | 21.2 | 26.995 | 131.9798829182 | 0.5397 | 0.9597 | 10.57 | 11.5297 | T | T | 0.79 | 20.79 | 8 | 361.9521539238 | 47.770402896854 | 0.43330510695914 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-06 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 29.8 | 21.16 | 25.48 | 133.02298191735 | 0.6596 | 1.3996 | 10.57 | 11.9696 | T | T | -2.2 | 17.8 | 8 | 362.57646359698 | 48.231002360717 | 0.3041085901489 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-05 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 30.62 | 20.89 | 25.755 | 135.18437681204 | 0.7932 | 2.3732 | 11.09 | 13.4632 | T | T | -1.38 | 18.62 | 8 | 363.86483662288 | 49.188841182679 | 0.33793807348518 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-05 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 29.99 | 20.54 | 25.265 | 132.98162014946 | 0.8836 | 1.9936 | 11.09 | 13.0836 | T | T | -2.01 | 18.99 | 8 | 362.55173946863 | 48.212717702542 | 0.31181294907057 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-05 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 30.44 | 20.17 | 25.305 | 132.77360940886 | 0.5928 | 1.9728 | 11.09 | 13.0628 | T | T | -1.56 | 20.44 | 8 | 362.42736100044 | 48.120788868558 | 0.3303866580973 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-05 11:01:38 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 30.1 | 20.21 | 25.155 | 137.81166914363 | 0.6243 | 1.9543 | 11.09 | 13.0443 | T | T | -1.9 | 13.1 | 8 | 365.42142915098 | 50.359337092147 | 0.31631156554773 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-05 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 29.86 | 22.88 | 26.37 | 133.46417275553 | 0.4394 | 1.7594 | 11.09 | 12.8494 | T | T | -2.14 | 23.86 | 8 | 362.84002526674 | 48.426143814821 | 0.30653239031605 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-05 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.11 | 24.33 | 28.72 | 135.80138298945 | 0.8676 | 2.1676 | 11.16 | 13.3276 | T | T | 1.11 | 29.11 | 8 | 364.23132826531 | 49.463118106513 | 0.44785586479397 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-04 22:57:15 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.75 | 21.98 | 27.865 | 130.76422316432 | 0.2472 | 1.3672 | 10.03 | 11.3972 | T | T | 1.75 | 27.75 | 8 | 361.22247391618 | 47.234976191144 | 0.47714928093883 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-04 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 34.16 | 21.98 | 28.07 | 129.56954342434 | 0.2497 | 1.4697 | 9.89 | 11.3597 | T | T | 2.16 | 31.16 | 8 | 360.50318836985 | 46.710233520101 | 0.49599060646921 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-04 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 32.08 | 20.8 | 26.44 | 130.67898323052 | 0.4901 | 1.5201 | 9.86 | 11.3801 | T | T | 0.079999999999998 | 25.08 | 8 | 361.17122545179 | 47.197488514159 | 0.40136894245459 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-04 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 32.94 | 24.25 | 28.595 | 135.47467809588 | 0.4724 | 1.7224 | 9.94 | 11.6624 | T | T | 0.94 | 18.94 | 8 | 364.03734241449 | 49.317841778484 | 0.44011575861332 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-04 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 32.94 | 24.25 | 28.595 | 136.17921412519 | 0.4724 | 1.7124 | 10.11 | 11.8224 | T | T | 0.94 | 24.94 | 8 | 364.45547043554 | 49.631259547538 | 0.44011575861332 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-04 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.13 | 25.75 | 29.44 | 134.55428375872 | 0.3446 | 1.5146 | 10.67 | 12.1846 | T | T | 1.13 | 27.13 | 8 | 363.48997835057 | 48.909133690432 | 0.44876783068222 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-03 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 31.97 | 25.53 | 28.75 | 117.93727007909 | 0.0857 | 1.3757 | 9.99 | 11.3657 | T | T | -0.030000000000001 | 27.97 | 8 | 353.38442067337 | 41.677193862699 | 0.39647387216878 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-03 18:59:30 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 31.97 | 25.53 | 28.75 | 117.96103478915 | 0.0857 | 1.5357 | 10.04 | 11.5757 | T | T | -0.030000000000001 | 29.97 | 8 | 353.39917976622 | 41.687332938861 | 0.39647387216878 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-03 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 31.9 | 23.93 | 27.915 | 117.77252006452 | 0.0816 | 1.8316 | 10.03 | 11.8616 | T | T | -0.1 | 28.9 | 8 | 353.2820780405 | 41.606920624459 | 0.39336724734869 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-03 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.56 | 26.65 | 30.105 | 116.4298870196 | 0.3339 | 1.4739 | 9.82 | 11.2939 | T | T | 1.56 | 31.56 | 8 | 352.44643641338 | 41.03529877207 | 0.46843267379724 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-03 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.56 | 26.65 | 30.105 | 114.6893119232 | 0.3339 | 1.5739 | 9.84 | 11.4139 | T | T | 1.56 | 36.56 | 8 | 351.35886896931 | 40.297106920203 | 0.46843267379724 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-03 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 32.76 | 25.02 | 28.89 | 120.42643904667 | 0.4177 | 1.9277 | 10.27 | 12.1977 | T | T | 0.76 | 29.76 | 8 | 354.92549094384 | 42.742413001259 | 0.43194528318103 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-02 22:57:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 36.84 | 27.54 | 32.19 | 119.70987143444 | 0.0456 | 1.4956 | 11.53 | 13.0256 | T | T | 4.84 | 39.84 | 8 | 354.48285478302 | 42.43509697179 | 0.6174785625041 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-02 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 36.84 | 27.54 | 32.19 | 118.94189573741 | 0.0456 | 1.4856 | 11.63 | 13.1156 | T | T | 4.84 | 36.84 | 8 | 354.0075677049 | 42.10633120821 | 0.6174785625041 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-02 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.7 | 22.82 | 28.26 | 124.65712626067 | 0.567 | 2.217 | 11.48 | 13.697 | T | T | 1.7 | 35.7 | 8 | 357.52250311525 | 44.567727811869 | 0.47485420547366 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-02 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 35.25 | 28.1 | 31.675 | 130.00431570849 | 0.0197 | 2.4197 | 11.55 | 13.9697 | T | T | 3.25 | 32.25 | 8 | 360.76520609457 | 46.901033749757 | 0.54601148617696 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-02 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 35.25 | 28.1 | 31.675 | 129.58957349942 | 0.0197 | 2.4197 | 11.67 | 14.0897 | T | T | 3.25 | 37.25 | 8 | 360.51526595555 | 46.719019555209 | 0.54601148617696 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-02 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.9 | 28.86 | 31.38 | 132.2853251264 | 0.2796 | 2.3996 | 12.05 | 14.4496 | T | T | 1.9 | 35.9 | 8 | 362.13513674852 | 47.90516430447 | 0.48403875213846 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-01 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 39.16 | 30.63 | 34.895 | 131.38360118067 | 0.1601 | 1.7501 | 12.03 | 13.7801 | T | T | 7.16 | 49.16 | 8 | 361.59452703453 | 47.507591129019 | 0.71440315345069 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-01 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 39.16 | 30.63 | 34.895 | 128.84696938141 | 0.0172 | 1.6072 | 11.76 | 13.3672 | T | T | 7.16 | 56.16 | 8 | 360.06708488775 | 46.393552661786 | 0.71440315345069 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-01 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 41 | 31.42 | 36.21 | 121.70431194573 | 0.0056 | 1.5656 | 11.59 | 13.1556 | T | T | 9 | 62 | 8 | 355.71285840736 | 43.291788682716 | 0.78184051074941 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-01 11:01:32 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.28 | 30.26 | 31.77 | 124.35282912877 | 0.0356 | 1.8056 | 11.74 | 13.5456 | T | T | 1.28 | 55.28 | 8 | 357.33663999183 | 44.435822134352 | 0.45561587554761 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-01 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.28 | 31.47 | 32.375 | 122.65591789603 | 0.0353 | 1.8053 | 11.83 | 13.6353 | T | T | 1.28 | 56.28 | 8 | 356.29753699707 | 43.702001444469 | 0.45561587554761 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-01 02:57:22 | FORECAST | 2021 | 100 | -184 | 33.63 | 33.13 | 33.38 | 124.00207809706 | 0.0574 | 1.8274 | 12.02 | 13.8474 | T | T | 1.63 | 56.63 | 8 | 357.12222476328 | 44.283898005291 | 0.47164251813863 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |