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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 17, 2021

[ Wednesday, June 16, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, June 18, 2021 ]

DAY 260 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/17/2021 12:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.852
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 343

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 93 in
SWE DAY: 167
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -24

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-17 12:00:03FORECAST2021260-2462.5450.1756.35593.2057306666670.00290.33293.133.4629FF30.54342.54168456.1454364962242.5153686988960.85204668492869935122128DRYL
2021-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2021260-2464.3546.1655.25592.734340.0030.3333.133.463FF32.35344.35168455.9756075290542.2845970203050.88939305880765935122128DRYL
2021-06-17 04:00:07FORECAST2021260-2462.6844.7953.73592.2962538333330.00630.33633.133.4663FF30.68342.68168455.8175948447742.0702564354920.85520472825773935122128DRYL
2021-06-17 00:00:03FORECAST2021260-2563.8543.3753.6192.1710546666670.00710.33713.133.4671FF31.85334.85167455.2312922942941.9591483280340.87982436364668935122128DRYL
2021-06-16 20:00:03FORECAST2021260-2563.7242.8653.2993.2744293333330.00420.34423.133.4742FF31.72345.72167455.6305718042642.4986815718630.87724397692108935122128DRYL
2021-06-16 16:00:02FORECAST2021260-2563.7943.0753.4393.2613640.00330.34333.133.4733FF31.79345.79167455.6258503802642.4922882801230.87863818966777935122128DRYL
2021-06-16 12:00:04FORECAST2021260-2563.9343.3753.6591.7722440.00240.34243.133.4724FF31.93345.93167455.086698653341.7643275499650.88139322636131935122128DRYL
2021-06-16 08:00:05FORECAST2021260-2564.0143.2553.6391.6202160.00270.34273.133.4727FF32.01342.01167455.0315404880341.6900880263260.88294760581596935122128DRYL
2021-06-16 04:00:07FORECAST2021260-2564.0443.3153.67591.7702876666670.00260.34263.133.4726FF32.04347.04167455.0859889998741.7633721235870.88352677194098935122128DRYL
2021-06-16 00:00:04FORECAST2021260-2563.9145.3954.6592.0872706666670.00020.01023.133.1402FF31.91342.91167455.200927541741.918211022250.88100236995758935121124DRYL
2021-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2021260-2564.1645.654.8893.0737680.00060.16063.133.2906FF32.16352.16167455.5580414703942.400503462350.88582316518443935122128DRYL
2021-06-15 16:00:05FORECAST2021260-2564.2945.5354.9193.0966186666670.00040.16043.133.2904FF32.29352.29167455.5663028566142.4116823744250.88827444545205935122128DRYL
2021-06-15 12:00:05FORECAST2021260-2564.5645.4354.99592.2897933333330.00060.16063.133.2906FF32.56352.56167455.2743141483542.0171723627260.89324513747509935122128DRYL
2021-06-15 08:00:04FORECAST2021260-2564.8845.355.0992.03165733333300.223.133.35FF32.88352.88167455.1807687513941.8910405344510.89892787573734935122128DRYL
2021-06-15 04:00:07FORECAST2021260-2564.9645.4155.18591.8999851666670.00060.19063.133.3206FF32.96351.96167455.1330287065541.8267185869920.90031357863105935122128DRYL
2021-06-15 00:00:05FORECAST2021260-2566.2544.4255.33592.7842906666670.00060.22062.883.1006FF34.25350.25167455.4533428668542.2589153496630.92078156247359935122128DRYL
2021-06-14 20:00:06FORECAST2021260-2569.6644.7757.21593.5077866666670.00050.19053.173.3605FF37.66364.66167455.7148738382442.6128892036930.95963540593349351221116DRYL
2021-06-14 16:00:06FORECAST2021260-2569.7945.3157.5593.4125573333330.00050.15053.173.3205FF37.79364.79167455.6804775837642.5662787379730.960736442297739351221116DRYL
2021-06-14 12:00:05FORECAST2021260-2565.5844.7555.16592.44408266666700.183.173.35FF33.58360.58167455.3301974772842.092582416220.91058623663067935122128DRYL
2021-06-14 08:00:04FORECAST2021260-2564.6846.0555.36592.02347733333300.183.23.38FF32.68360.68167455.1778034145741.8870442751570.8954025133254935122128DRYL
2021-06-14 04:00:07FORECAST2021260-2570.5246.0458.2892.01404209523800.173.293.46FF38.52365.52167455.1743829641141.8824348347330.966474824073599351221116DRYL
2021-06-14 00:00:05FORECAST2021260-2570.3744.6557.5192.2787533333330.0020.1922.732.922FF38.37361.37167455.2703146398442.0117770646390.965355555206189351221116DRYL
2021-06-13 20:00:06FORECAST2021260-2570.242.2256.2193.3746933333330.00140.19143.073.2614FF38.2370.2167455.6667990260142.5477476212350.964050249578289351221116DRYL
2021-06-13 16:00:06FORECAST2021260-2572.2845.9459.1192.843880.00131.09133.024.1113TF40.28378.28167455.4749015206742.2880570997970.977525551371249351241132WETL
2021-06-13 12:00:06FORECAST2021260-2572.4544.7758.6191.45392533333301.12.984.08TF40.45379.45167454.9711832060241.6089006177420.978408073634549351241132WETL
2021-06-13 08:00:05FORECAST2021260-2571.0646.4858.7791.0744840.00040.18043.013.1904FF39.06376.06167454.833364727241.4237139985140.970261023090219351221116DRYL
2021-06-13 04:00:07FORECAST2021260-2568.1346.4957.3190.6616605833330.00040.19043.153.3404FF36.13373.13167454.6832704554241.2223403389490.944709290876429351221116DRYL
2021-06-13 00:00:05FORECAST2021260-2571.5946.2758.9391.0223693333330.00090.21093.13.3109FF39.59375.59167454.8144255639141.3982866218060.973625999119259351221116DRYL
2021-06-12 20:00:05FORECAST2021260-2570.544.4257.4692.3137973333330.00180.30183.093.3918FF38.5386.5167455.2830097941542.0289034954470.966327325376419351221116DRYL
2021-06-12 16:00:05FORECAST2021260-2570.5344.4157.4792.1100546666670.00180.32183.233.5518FF38.53388.53167455.2091854921441.929342960450.966548374315499351221116DRYL
2021-06-12 12:00:05FORECAST2021260-2567.8445.4656.6591.0631333333330.00040.38043.433.8104TF35.84383.84167454.8292399574641.4181757221450.94144264147144935122128DRYL
2021-06-12 08:00:06FORECAST2021260-2564.7944.2954.5491.3112106666670.00140.40143.64.0014TF32.79369.79167454.9193627966141.5392377726670.89735229388727935122128WETL
2021-06-12 04:00:07FORECAST2021260-2564.8244.2954.55590.9405695833330.00140.39143.513.9014TF32.82374.82167454.7846933901641.3583790546830.89787945289639935122128DRYL
2021-06-12 00:00:05FORECAST2021260-2570.9948.4659.72596.7359360.00250.40253.43.8025TF38.99383.99167456.8759540383644.1963230497930.96979112803989351221116DRYL
2021-06-11 20:00:05FORECAST2021260-2570.9848.3759.67597.7581853333330.00160.54164.194.7316TF38.98391.98167457.2416498777444.6991139508680.969723501869159351231124WETL
2021-06-11 16:00:05FORECAST2021260-2571.0148.3559.6897.6595120.00160.53164.134.6616TF39.01390.01167457.2063922198144.6505531474670.96992600583089351231124WETL
2021-06-11 12:00:06FORECAST2021260-2568.664757.8397.1671293333330.00170.49174.014.5017TF36.66389.66167457.0303234041544.4083245434660.950307124970739351231124WETL
2021-06-11 08:00:06FORECAST2021260-2569.6947.3158.597.1881213333330.00170.50173.734.2317TF37.69387.69167457.0378343299844.4186484967860.959891684475889351231124WETL
2021-06-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021260-2569.7147.3258.51597.2296604166670.00170.50173.834.3317TF37.71389.71167457.0526958104644.4390784061730.960061803515399351231124WETL
2021-06-11 00:00:06FORECAST2021260-2575.3947.0661.22589.177280.00020.41023.694.1002TF43.39395.39167454.1422773793140.4991730296930.989626744496529351221116WETL
2021-06-10 20:00:05FORECAST2021260-2575.3846.9761.17591.1426933333330.00020.47023.584.0502TF43.38399.38167454.858149118941.4569967953120.989599496612139351321118WETL
2021-06-10 16:00:06FORECAST2021260-2574.1547.760.92592.0100346666670.00020.49023.363.8502TF42.15397.15167455.1729301714141.88047708440.985735904655739351231124DRYL
2021-06-10 12:00:06FORECAST2021260-2561.3145.3653.33592.8549080.00070.63073.323.9507TF29.31378.31167455.4788909513242.2934505152270.822336802591079341231210.5DRYL
2021-06-10 08:00:06FORECAST2021260-2550.9846.1348.55593.23981600.383.373.75TF18.98356.98167455.6180632297842.4817443818220.46381938563884932122125DRYL
2021-06-10 04:00:07FORECAST2021260-2547.8546.1747.0193.655770500.383.33.68TF15.85363.85167455.7683081892242.6853320729430.34517972216008932122125DRYL