morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 8, 2020

[ Monday, September 7, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 9, 2020 ]

DAY 344 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/09/2020 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 59.25°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 42.32°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 50.78°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.497 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 27 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 532 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.20 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.20 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 251 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.87 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 58 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 22.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-09 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2020	344	58	59.25002	42.31994	50.78498	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	27.25002	532.25002	251	466.86824583767	0.49683935727412	93	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	57.29	57.29	57.29	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	25.29	530.29	252	467.36522165142	0.41972550059705	93	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-08 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	344	58	67.84	52.57	60.205	0.0066	0.0066	0.2	0.2066	F	F	35.84	540.84	252	467.36522165142	0.80103517280961	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-08 07:59:59	FORECAST	2020	344	58	63.37	46.85	55.11	0.0058	0.0058	0.2	0.2058	F	F	31.37	536.37	252	467.36522165142	0.65589442957397	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	66.36	46.91	56.635	0.0101	0.0101	0.2	0.2101	F	F	34.36	539.36	252	467.36522165142	0.75750020252398	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 23:50:53	FORECAST	2020	344	58	65.65	45.77	55.71	0.0067	0.0067	0.2	0.2067	F	F	33.65	542.65	251	466.86824583767	0.73491730514909	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	344	58	65.39	44	54.695	0.0056	0.0056	0.2	0.2056	F	F	33.39	542.39	251	466.86824583767	0.72638850360977	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 15:59:51	FORECAST	2020	344	58	65.36	44.68	55.02	0.0029	0.0029	0.2	0.2029	F	F	33.36	542.36	251	466.86824583767	0.72539575438938	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.51	45.59	55.05	0.0004	0.0004	0.2	0.2004	F	F	32.51	541.51	251	466.86824583767	0.69655422380992	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-07 07:59:50	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.57	45.37	54.97	0.0033	0.0133	0.2	0.2133	F	F	32.57	542.57	251	466.86824583767	0.69863383405576	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.19	44.78	54.485	0.0042	0.0142	0.2	0.2142	F	F	32.19	537.19	251	466.86824583767	0.68535655028882	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.36	45.29	54.825	0.0006	0.0106	0.2	0.2106	F	F	32.36	531.36	251	466.86824583767	0.69132740227303	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-06 20:00:00	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.35	44.46	54.405	0.0008	0.0208	0.2	0.2208	F	F	32.35	547.35	251	466.86824583767	0.69097755055857	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.41	44.03	54.22	0.0004	0.0104	0.2	0.2104	F	F	32.41	547.41	251	466.86824583767	0.6930740543762	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.21	44.9	54.555	0.0019	0.0119	0.2	0.2119	F	F	32.21	547.21	251	466.86824583767	0.68606156299718	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.61	44.9	54.755	0.0023	0.0123	0.2	0.2123	F	F	32.61	547.61	251	466.86824583767	0.70001666940184	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.86	44.89	54.875	0.0033	0.0133	0.2	0.2133	F	F	32.86	547.86	251	466.86824583767	0.7085936208853	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	64.39	45.32	54.855	0.0028	0.0028	0.2	0.2028	F	F	32.39	538.39	251	466.86824583767	0.69237591585871	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	65.02	45.26	55.14	0.0018	0.0118	0.22	0.2318	F	F	33.02	554.02	251	466.86824583767	0.71402218493882	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	65.03	45.18	55.105	0.0012	0.0012	0.22	0.2212	F	F	33.03	553.03	251	466.86824583767	0.71435986982271	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	67.84	45.03	56.435	0.0009	0.0009	0.22	0.2209	F	F	35.84	554.84	251	466.86824583767	0.80103517280961	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	344	58	69.76	45.43	57.595	0.0011	0.0011	0.21	0.2111	F	F	37.76	554.76	251	466.86824583767	0.84993155856602	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	344	58	69.92	45.23	57.575	0.0007	0.0007	0.21	0.2107	F	F	37.92	558.92	251	466.86824583767	0.85361061158609	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	344	58	69.12	43.99	56.555	0.001	0.001	0.21	0.211	F	F	37.12	538.12	251	466.86824583767	0.83460535355738	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	69.12	46.75	57.935	0.001	0.001	0.22	0.221	F	F	37.12	557.12	251	466.86824583767	0.83460535355738	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	344	58	68.98	49.18	59.08	0.001	0.001	0.22	0.221	F	F	36.98	561.98	251	466.86824583767	0.83112261734566	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	69.85	50.94	60.395	0.0018	0.0018	0.22	0.2218	F	F	37.85	558.85	251	466.86824583767	0.85200852268365	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	344	58	69.85	50.94	60.395	0.0018	0.0018	0.22	0.2218	F	F	37.85	556.85	251	466.86824583767	0.85200852268365	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-04 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	344	58	69.23	49.08	59.155	0.002	0.002	0.22	0.222	F	F	37.23	560.23	251	466.86824583767	0.83730903408374	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	344	58	70.12	51.06	60.59	0.0014	0.0014	0.21	0.2114	F	F	38.12	557.12	251	466.86824583767	0.8581238246065	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	344	58	70.12	51.06	60.59	0.0014	0.0014	0.22	0.2214	F	F	38.12	568.12	251	466.86824583767	0.8581238246065	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	69.46	50.78	60.12	0.0014	0.0014	0.22	0.2214	F	F	37.46	560.46	251	466.86824583767	0.8428689787913	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	71.52	53.54	62.53	0.0008	0.0008	0.21	0.2108	F	F	39.52	571.52	251	466.86824583767	0.88707981356732	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 08:04:51	FORECAST	2020	344	58	71.52	53.54	62.53	0.0008	0.0008	0.21	0.2108	F	F	39.52	568.52	251	466.86824583767	0.88707981356732	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	75.06	56.47	65.765	0.0008	0.0008	0.21	0.2108	F	F	43.06	588.06	251	466.86824583767	0.94103496097343	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	344	58	73.29	55.7	64.495	0.0011	0.0011	0.21	0.2111	F	F	41.29	585.29	251	466.86824583767	0.91731871126351	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	344	58	74.15	59.59	66.87	0.0013	0.0013	0.2	0.2013	F	F	42.15	599.15	251	466.86824583767	0.9296084821036	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	75.46	57.83	66.645	0.0015	0.0015	0.2	0.2015	F	F	43.46	597.46	251	466.86824583767	0.94557420696348	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 11:50:50	FORECAST	2020	344	58	83.14	60.94	72.04	0.0013	0.0013	0.2	0.2013	F	F	51.14	592.14	251	466.86824583767	0.99110951814883	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 07:58:04	FORECAST	2020	344	58	83.14	60.94	72.04	0.0013	0.0013	0.21	0.2113	F	F	51.14	593.14	251	466.86824583767	0.99110951814883	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	344	58	82.78	60.88	71.83	0.0013	0.0013	0.22	0.2213	F	F	50.78	595.78	251	466.86824583767	0.99020614541542	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	81.61	62.72	72.165	0.0004	0.0004	0.21	0.2104	F	F	49.61	591.61	251	466.86824583767	0.98669507065893	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 19:58:04	FORECAST	2020	344	58	81.61	62.72	72.165	0.0002	0.0002	0.22	0.2202	F	F	49.61	606.61	251	466.86824583767	0.98669507065893	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	344	58	80.68	62.49	71.585	0.0002	0.0002	0.21	0.2102	F	F	48.68	604.68	251	466.86824583767	0.98317574517093	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	75.47	63.72	69.595	0.003	0.003	0.21	0.213	F	F	43.47	602.47	251	466.86824583767	0.94568405457548	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	344	58	65.89	63.72	64.805	0.0022	0.0022	0.22	0.2222	F	F	33.89	593.89	251	466.86824583767	0.74266854358159	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-01 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	344	58	66.13	65.38	65.755	0.0013	0.0013	0.21	0.2113	F	F	34.13	594.13	251	466.86824583767	0.75030047080821	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L