Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 5, 2020

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DAY 341 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/06/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.91°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.36°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.13°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.643 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 33 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 520 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.99 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.99 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 248 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.37 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 55 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-06 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2020	341	55	64.90994	49.35992	57.13493	0	0	0	0.99	0.99	F	F	32.90994	519.90994	248	465.36593694953	0	0.64267003396282	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	55.43	55.43	55.43	0	0	0	0.99	0.99	F	F	23.43	510.43	249	465.86861070411	0	0.32933417440143	93	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	67.25	57.14	62.195	0	0.0162	0.0162	0.99	1.0062	F	F	35.25	522.25	249	465.86861070411	0	0.71393041413068	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	63.27	52.37	57.82	0	0.008	0.008	0.99	0.998	F	F	31.27	518.27	249	465.86861070411	0	0.58937569706682	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	341	55	67.33	54.76	61.045	0	0.0099	0.0099	0.99	0.9999	F	F	35.33	522.33	249	465.86861070411	0	0.71624335273284	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	68.92	53.09	61.005	0	0.0129	0.0129	0.99	1.0029	F	F	36.92	502.92	248	465.36593694953	0	0.76026307346869	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	68.84	52.08	60.46	0	0.0072	0.0172	0.99	1.0072	F	F	36.84	525.84	248	465.36593694953	0	0.75814077890296	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	69.07	55.1	62.085	0	0.0051	0.0151	0.99	1.0051	F	F	37.07	526.07	248	465.36593694953	0	0.76421488245013	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	69.16	55.06	62.11	0	0.0054	0.0154	0.99	1.0054	F	F	37.16	526.16	248	465.36593694953	0	0.76656864699311	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	69.12	55.19	62.155	0	0.007	0.017	0.99	1.007	F	F	37.12	525.12	248	465.36593694953	0	0.76552413929463	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	69.24	55.23	62.235	0	0.0077	0.0177	0.99	1.0077	F	F	37.24	523.24	248	465.36593694953	0	0.76864991074769	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	341	55	69.09	55.99	62.54	0	0.0016	0.0116	0.99	1.0016	F	F	37.09	521.09	248	465.36593694953	0	0.76473906751948	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	68.8	55.13	61.965	0	0.0021	0.0221	0.99	1.0121	F	F	36.8	533.8	248	465.36593694953	0	0.75707582720201	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	68.21	56.23	62.22	0	0.0038	0.0238	0.99	1.0138	F	F	36.21	533.21	248	465.36593694953	0	0.74107768020406	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-03 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	68.54	55.61	62.075	0	0.0041	0.0141	0.99	1.0041	F	F	36.54	532.54	248	465.36593694953	0	0.75009231252909	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-03 08:04:51	FORECAST	2020	341	55	69.48	55.78	62.63	0	0.0018	0.0118	0.99	1.0018	F	F	37.48	529.48	248	465.36593694953	0	0.77483129189742	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	70.53	55.96	63.245	0	0.0012	0.0112	0.99	1.0012	F	F	38.53	534.53	248	465.36593694953	0	0.80075062111659	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	341	55	72.26	56.53	64.395	0	0	0.01	0.99	1	F	F	40.26	529.26	248	465.36593694953	0	0.83933349615128	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	71.94	56.24	64.09	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.99	0.9908	F	F	39.94	541.94	248	465.36593694953	0	0.83259000786356	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	71.91	56.48	64.195	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.99	0.9916	F	F	39.91	541.91	248	465.36593694953	0	0.83194861022238	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-02 11:50:50	FORECAST	2020	341	55	68.18	56.2	62.19	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.99	0.9916	F	F	36.18	536.18	248	465.36593694953	0	0.74024991786779	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-02 07:58:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	69.21	56.05	62.63	0	0.0018	0.0018	1	1.0018	F	F	37.21	537.21	248	465.36593694953	0	0.76787065001601	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-02 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	341	55	74.12	56.35	65.235	0	0.0017	0.0017	1.01	1.0117	F	F	42.12	541.12	248	465.36593694953	0	0.87498567161963	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	75.13	54.89	65.01	0	0.0019	0.0019	1	1.0019	F	F	43.13	533.13	248	465.36593694953	0	0.89184754249214	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 19:58:04	FORECAST	2020	341	55	75.13	54.92	65.025	0	0.0016	0.0016	1.01	1.0116	F	F	43.13	548.13	248	465.36593694953	0	0.89184754249214	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	74.14	56.01	65.075	0	0.0018	0.0018	1	1.0018	F	F	42.14	548.14	248	465.36593694953	0	0.87533640867736	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	75.87	58.12	66.995	0	0.004	0.004	1	1.004	F	F	43.87	545.87	248	465.36593694953	0	0.90312062599725	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	75.87	58.12	66.995	0	0.004	0.004	1.01	1.014	F	F	43.87	546.87	248	465.36593694953	0	0.90312062599725	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	341	55	75.4	57.68	66.54	0	0.004	0.004	1	1.004	F	F	43.4	546.4	248	465.36593694953	0	0.89606502232434	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	341	55	78.82	61.02	69.92	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.82	0.8221	F	F	46.82	556.82	248	465.36593694953	0	0.93959387823942	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	78.82	61.02	69.92	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.82	0.8221	F	F	46.82	571.82	248	465.36593694953	0	0.93959387823942	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 15:50:56	FORECAST	2020	341	55	79.01	60.61	69.81	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.81	0.8121	F	F	47.01	572.01	248	465.36593694953	0	0.94151321173313	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 12:04:48	FORECAST	2020	341	55	77.08	59.99	68.535	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.81	0.8121	F	F	45.08	565.08	248	465.36593694953	0	0.91966135159301	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	77.08	59.99	68.535	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.81	0.8121	F	F	45.08	561.08	248	465.36593694953	0	0.91966135159301	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	341	55	78.43	60.84	69.635	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.82	0.8221	F	F	46.43	569.43	248	465.36593694953	0	0.93550062088956	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	77.56	59.03	68.295	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.85	0.8509	F	F	45.56	555.56	248	465.36593694953	0	0.9255985457634	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	77.56	59.03	68.295	0	0.0007	0.0007	0.87	0.8707	F	F	45.56	571.56	248	465.36593694953	0	0.9255985457634	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	78.29	59.95	69.12	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.88	0.8809	F	F	46.29	572.29	248	465.36593694953	0	0.93397996031461	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	341	55	78.51	60.27	69.39	0	0.002	0.002	0.87	0.872	F	F	46.51	570.51	248	465.36593694953	0	0.93635731270601	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 07:51:19	FORECAST	2020	341	55	78.51	60.27	69.39	0	0.002	0.002	0.87	0.872	F	F	46.51	565.51	248	465.36593694953	0	0.93635731270601	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	78.16	54.1	66.13	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.89	0.8904	F	F	46.16	577.16	248	465.36593694953	0	0.93254326868123	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 19:51:23	FORECAST	2020	341	55	78.17	54.07	66.12	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.93	0.9304	F	F	46.17	591.17	248	465.36593694953	0	0.93265463132292	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	76.8	54.74	65.77	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.94	0.9404	F	F	44.8	592.8	248	465.36593694953	0	0.91603699657258	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	341	55	73.78	57.75	65.765	0	0.0009	0.0009	1.03	1.0309	F	F	41.78	586.78	248	465.36593694953	0	0.86891783936224	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	341	55	59.6	57.74	58.67	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.91	0.9109	F	F	27.6	574.6	248	465.36593694953	0	0.46548918406902	93	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	341	55	60.82	60.53	60.675	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.91	0.9109	F	F	28.82	580.82	248	465.36593694953	0	0.50689599298904	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L