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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 10, 2020

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DAY 346 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/11/2020 12:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 61.16°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 61.16°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 61.16°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.568 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 535 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.20 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.20 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 253 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.35 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 60 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	61.16	61.16	61.16	0.0009	0.0009	0.2	0.2009	F	F	29.16	535.16	254	468.35352565462	0.56784460135251	91	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	79.6	60.3	69.95	0.0052	0.0052	0.2	0.2052	F	F	47.6	553.6	254	468.35352565462	0.97727447708478	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	79.59	56.93	68.26	0.0054	0.0054	0.2	0.2054	F	F	47.59	553.59	254	468.35352565462	0.97722070437369	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 03:59:41	FORECAST	2020	346	60	79.38	57.1	68.24	0.0047	0.0047	0.2	0.2047	F	F	47.38	553.38	254	468.35352565462	0.97606653349573	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	79.19	59.05	69.12	0.0058	0.0058	0.2	0.2058	F	F	47.19	553.19	253	467.86031254069	0.97498042078802	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	78.97	56.48	67.725	0.0027	0.0027	0.2	0.2027	F	F	46.97	566.97	253	467.86031254069	0.97367162946285	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	346	60	78.77	56.85	67.81	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	46.77	566.77	253	467.86031254069	0.97243275825699	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	78.94	57.18	68.06	0.0007	0.0007	0.2	0.2007	F	F	46.94	566.94	253	467.86031254069	0.97348881231911	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	78.92	57.17	68.045	0.0007	0.0107	0.2	0.2107	F	F	46.92	566.92	253	467.86031254069	0.97336634744613	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	346	60	79.01	57.52	68.265	0.0004	0.0104	0.2	0.2104	F	F	47.01	567.01	253	467.86031254069	0.97391374956715	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	79	57.79	68.395	0.001	0.011	0.2	0.211	F	F	47	566	253	467.86031254069	0.97385339434459	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	79	57.86	68.43	0.0015	0.0215	0.2	0.2215	F	F	47	574	253	467.86031254069	0.97385339434459	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	78.81	57.7	68.255	0.0013	0.0213	0.2	0.2213	F	F	46.81	576.81	253	467.86031254069	0.97268433703251	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-08 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	346	60	78.32	57.82	68.07	0	0.01	0.2	0.21	F	F	46.32	576.32	253	467.86031254069	0.96946745650693	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-08 07:59:59	FORECAST	2020	346	60	78.08	57.83	67.955	0.0004	0.0104	0.2	0.2104	F	F	46.08	571.08	253	467.86031254069	0.96778117104082	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	77.68	57.48	67.58	0.0008	0.0108	0.2	0.2108	F	F	45.68	573.68	253	467.86031254069	0.96480083559615	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-07 23:50:53	FORECAST	2020	346	60	77.77	60.25	69.01	0.0014	0.0114	0.2	0.2114	F	F	45.77	576.77	253	467.86031254069	0.96549035882557	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	77.46	60.02	68.74	0.0014	0.0114	0.2	0.2114	F	F	45.46	575.46	253	467.86031254069	0.9630678109185	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-07 15:59:52	FORECAST	2020	346	60	77.08	60.13	68.605	0.0018	0.0018	0.2	0.2018	F	F	45.08	575.08	253	467.86031254069	0.95991101962634	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-07 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	346	60	73.42	60.62	67.02	0.0013	0.0013	0.2	0.2013	F	F	41.42	571.42	253	467.86031254069	0.91712495503338	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-07 07:59:50	FORECAST	2020	346	60	73.75	58.51	66.13	0.0007	0.0007	0.21	0.2107	F	F	41.75	572.75	253	467.86031254069	0.92201422328971	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	346	60	80.83	59.63	70.23	0.0002	0.0002	0.21	0.2102	F	F	48.83	573.83	253	467.86031254069	0.9831223577654	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.63	58.64	70.135	0.0015	0.0015	0.21	0.2115	F	F	49.63	568.63	253	467.86031254069	0.98619235661808	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-06 20:00:00	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.63	58.72	70.175	0.0015	0.0015	0.22	0.2215	F	F	49.63	584.63	253	467.86031254069	0.98619235661808	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.65	62.12	71.885	0.0009	0.0009	0.21	0.2109	F	F	49.65	584.65	253	467.86031254069	0.98626249879422	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.43	60.85	71.14	0.0005	0.0005	0.21	0.2105	F	F	49.43	583.43	253	467.86031254069	0.9854738083343	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.43	60.85	71.14	0.0005	0.0005	0.21	0.2105	F	F	49.43	584.43	253	467.86031254069	0.9854738083343	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.21	61.74	71.475	0.0005	0.0005	0.21	0.2105	F	F	49.21	587.21	253	467.86031254069	0.98464652153064	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	80.37	60.47	70.42	0.0005	0.0005	0.2	0.2005	F	F	48.37	578.37	253	467.86031254069	0.98110623785796	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.52	61.58	71.55	0.0006	0.0006	0.23	0.2306	F	F	49.52	597.52	253	467.86031254069	0.98580103736368	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.47	61.19	71.33	0.0006	0.0006	0.22	0.2206	F	F	49.47	596.47	253	467.86031254069	0.9856200349639	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.56	61.55	71.555	0.0008	0.0008	0.22	0.2208	F	F	49.56	599.56	253	467.86031254069	0.98594442512533	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	81.56	61.55	71.555	0.0008	0.0008	0.21	0.2108	F	F	49.56	599.56	253	467.86031254069	0.98594442512533	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	346	60	82.34	62.06	72.2	0.0008	0.0008	0.21	0.2108	F	F	50.34	603.34	253	467.86031254069	0.98850149334667	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	82.27	61.01	71.64	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	50.27	581.27	253	467.86031254069	0.98828978009132	91	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	82.27	61	71.635	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	50.27	600.27	253	467.86031254069	0.98828978009132	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	82.33	61.21	71.77	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	50.33	606.33	253	467.86031254069	0.98847145334724	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	80.18	60.29	70.235	0.0018	0.0018	0.22	0.2218	F	F	48.18	601.18	253	467.86031254069	0.98021571116701	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	80.18	60.29	70.235	0.0018	0.0018	0.22	0.2218	F	F	48.18	599.18	253	467.86031254069	0.98021571116701	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-04 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	80.09	60.31	70.2	0.0018	0.0018	0.22	0.2218	F	F	48.09	601.09	253	467.86031254069	0.97978162722318	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	346	60	80.46	60.58	70.52	0.001	0.001	0.21	0.211	F	F	48.46	599.46	253	467.86031254069	0.98151604512603	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	346	60	80.46	61.5	70.98	0.001	0.001	0.22	0.221	F	F	48.46	610.46	253	467.86031254069	0.98151604512603	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	80.83	61.39	71.11	0.001	0.001	0.22	0.221	F	F	48.83	602.83	253	467.86031254069	0.9831223577654	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	76.55	63.06	69.805	0.0007	0.0007	0.21	0.2107	F	F	44.55	612.55	253	467.86031254069	0.95514684711995	91	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-03 08:04:51	FORECAST	2020	346	60	64.93	63.06	63.995	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	32.93	597.93	253	467.86031254069	0.70689305643322	91	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	346	60	65.51	64.97	65.24	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	33.51	617.51	253	467.86031254069	0.726342193745	91	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L