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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 10, 2020

[ Wednesday, September 9, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, September 11, 2020 ]

DAY 346 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/11/2020 12:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 61.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.568
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 535

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 253
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20203466061.1661.1661.1600.00090.00090.20.2009FF29.16535.16254468.3535256546200.567844601352519133415225DRYL
2020-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20203466079.660.369.9500.00520.00520.20.2052FF47.6553.6254468.3535256546200.977274477084789153415160DRYH
2020-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20203466079.5956.9368.2600.00540.00540.20.2054FF47.59553.59254468.3535256546200.977220704373699153415160DRYH
2020-09-10 03:59:41FORECAST20203466079.3857.168.2400.00470.00470.20.2047FF47.38553.38254468.3535256546200.976066533495739153415160DRYH
2020-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20203466079.1959.0569.1200.00580.00580.20.2058FF47.19553.19253467.8603125406900.974980420788029153415160DRYH
2020-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20203466078.9756.4867.72500.00270.00270.20.2027FF46.97566.97253467.8603125406900.973671629462859153415160DRYH
2020-09-09 16:00:01FORECAST20203466078.7756.8567.810000.20.2FF46.77566.77253467.8603125406900.972432758256999153415160DRYH
2020-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20203466078.9457.1868.0600.00070.00070.20.2007FF46.94566.94253467.8603125406900.973488812319119153415160DRYH
2020-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20203466078.9257.1768.04500.00070.01070.20.2107FF46.92566.92253467.8603125406900.973366347446139153415160DRYH
2020-09-09 04:00:08FORECAST20203466079.0157.5268.26500.00040.01040.20.2104FF47.01567.01253467.8603125406900.973913749567159153415160DRYH
2020-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST2020346607957.7968.39500.0010.0110.20.211FF47566253467.8603125406900.973853394344599153415160DRYH
2020-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST2020346607957.8668.4300.00150.02150.20.2215FF47574253467.8603125406900.973853394344599153415160DRYH
2020-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20203466078.8157.768.25500.00130.02130.20.2213FF46.81576.81253467.8603125406900.972684337032519153415160DRYH
2020-09-08 11:59:59FORECAST20203466078.3257.8268.07000.010.20.21FF46.32576.32253467.8603125406900.969467456506939153415160DRYH
2020-09-08 07:59:59FORECAST20203466078.0857.8367.95500.00040.01040.20.2104FF46.08571.08253467.8603125406900.967781171040829153415160DRYH
2020-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20203466077.6857.4867.5800.00080.01080.20.2108FF45.68573.68253467.8603125406900.964800835596159153415160DRYH
2020-09-07 23:50:53FORECAST20203466077.7760.2569.0100.00140.01140.20.2114FF45.77576.77253467.8603125406900.965490358825579153415160DRYH
2020-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20203466077.4660.0268.7400.00140.01140.20.2114FF45.46575.46253467.8603125406900.96306781091859153415160DRYH
2020-09-07 15:59:52FORECAST20203466077.0860.1368.60500.00180.00180.20.2018FF45.08575.08253467.8603125406900.959911019626349153415160DRYH
2020-09-07 11:59:59FORECAST20203466073.4260.6267.0200.00130.00130.20.2013FF41.42571.42253467.8603125406900.917124955033389153415160DRYH
2020-09-07 07:59:50FORECAST20203466073.7558.5166.1300.00070.00070.210.2107FF41.75572.75253467.8603125406900.922014223289719153415160DRYH
2020-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20203466080.8359.6370.2300.00020.00020.210.2102FF48.83573.83253467.8603125406900.98312235776549153415160DRYH
2020-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20203466081.6358.6470.13500.00150.00150.210.2115FF49.63568.63253467.8603125406900.986192356618089153415160DRYH
2020-09-06 20:00:00FORECAST20203466081.6358.7270.17500.00150.00150.220.2215FF49.63584.63253467.8603125406900.986192356618089153415160DRYH
2020-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20203466081.6562.1271.88500.00090.00090.210.2109FF49.65584.65253467.8603125406900.986262498794229153415160DRYH
2020-09-06 12:00:01FORECAST20203466081.4360.8571.1400.00050.00050.210.2105FF49.43583.43253467.8603125406900.98547380833439153415160DRYH
2020-09-06 08:00:01FORECAST20203466081.4360.8571.1400.00050.00050.210.2105FF49.43584.43253467.8603125406900.98547380833439153415160DRYH
2020-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20203466081.2161.7471.47500.00050.00050.210.2105FF49.21587.21253467.8603125406900.984646521530649153415160DRYH
2020-09-06 00:00:03FORECAST20203466080.3760.4770.4200.00050.00050.20.2005FF48.37578.37253467.8603125406900.981106237857969153415160DRYH
2020-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20203466081.5261.5871.5500.00060.00060.230.2306FF49.52597.52253467.8603125406900.985801037363689153415160DRYH
2020-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20203466081.4761.1971.3300.00060.00060.220.2206FF49.47596.47253467.8603125406900.98562003496399153415160DRYH
2020-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20203466081.5661.5571.55500.00080.00080.220.2208FF49.56599.56253467.8603125406900.985944425125339153515165DRYH
2020-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20203466081.5661.5571.55500.00080.00080.210.2108FF49.56599.56253467.8603125406900.985944425125339153515165DRYH
2020-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20203466082.3462.0672.200.00080.00080.210.2108FF50.34603.34253467.8603125406900.988501493346679153515165DRYH
2020-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20203466082.2761.0171.640000.210.21FF50.27581.27253467.8603125406900.988289780091329153415160DRYH
2020-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20203466082.276171.6350000.220.22FF50.27600.27253467.8603125406900.988289780091329153515165DRYH
2020-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20203466082.3361.2171.770000.220.22FF50.33606.33253467.8603125406900.988471453347249153515165DRYH
2020-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20203466080.1860.2970.23500.00180.00180.220.2218FF48.18601.18253467.8603125406900.980215711167019153515165DRYH
2020-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20203466080.1860.2970.23500.00180.00180.220.2218FF48.18599.18253467.8603125406900.980215711167019153515165DRYH
2020-09-04 04:00:02FORECAST20203466080.0960.3170.200.00180.00180.220.2218FF48.09601.09253467.8603125406900.979781627223189153515165DRYH
2020-09-04 00:00:04FORECAST20203466080.4660.5870.5200.0010.0010.210.211FF48.46599.46253467.8603125406900.981516045126039153515165DRYH
2020-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20203466080.4661.570.9800.0010.0010.220.221FF48.46610.46253467.8603125406900.981516045126039153515165DRYH
2020-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20203466080.8361.3971.1100.0010.0010.220.221FF48.83602.83253467.8603125406900.98312235776549153515165DRYH
2020-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20203466076.5563.0669.80500.00070.00070.210.2107FF44.55612.55253467.8603125406900.955146847119959153515165DRYH
2020-09-03 08:04:51FORECAST20203466064.9363.0663.9950000.210.21FF32.93597.93253467.8603125406900.706893056433229143415227.5DRYL
2020-09-03 04:00:03FORECAST20203466065.5164.9765.240000.210.21FF33.51617.51253467.8603125406900.7263421937459143515230DRYL