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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 1, 2020

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DAY 337 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/02/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 66.61°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 46.02°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 56.32°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.752 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 35 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 536 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.19 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.80 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.99 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 244 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 463.34 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 51 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 55.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-02 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	337	51	66.61004	46.02002	56.31503	0	0.19	0.8	0.99	F	F	34.61004	535.61004	244	463.33603098816	0.75224887681892	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	57.1	57.1	57.1	0.0009	0.1909	0.8	0.9909	F	F	25.1	526.1	245	463.84640374802	0.42034585577609	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-09-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	71.17	57.51	64.34	0.0093	0.1993	0.8	0.9993	F	F	39.17	540.17	245	463.84640374802	0.86541899098252	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	71.26	50.22	60.74	0.0206	0.2106	0.8	1.0106	F	F	39.26	540.26	245	463.84640374802	0.86722214833136	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-09-01 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	337	51	67.65	50.69	59.17	0.0066	0.1966	0.8	0.9966	F	F	35.65	536.65	245	463.84640374802	0.78175058088339	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.15	46.52	59.335	0.0063	0.0063	0.8	0.8063	F	F	40.15	541.15	244	463.33603098816	0.88416193010044	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	71.15	53.42	62.285	0.0051	0.0151	0.8	0.8151	F	F	39.15	557.15	244	463.33603098816	0.86501602411331	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 15:50:56	FORECAST	2020	337	51	71.03	54.01	62.52	0.0024	0.0124	0.8	0.8124	F	F	39.03	557.03	244	463.33603098816	0.86258090090916	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 12:04:48	FORECAST	2020	337	51	71.29	53.95	62.62	0.0027	0.0127	0.8	0.8127	F	F	39.29	557.29	244	463.33603098816	0.8678194973092	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.07	54.88	63.475	0.0024	0.0124	0.8	0.8124	F	F	40.07	553.07	244	463.33603098816	0.88270497342766	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.41	53.81	63.11	0.0018	0.0218	0.8	0.8218	F	F	40.41	555.41	244	463.33603098816	0.88880842129905	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.25	54.24	63.245	0.0013	0.0513	0.8	0.8513	F	F	40.25	550.25	244	463.33603098816	0.88596504888572	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.28	54.51	63.395	0.0019	0.0719	0.8	0.8719	F	F	40.28	562.28	244	463.33603098816	0.88650207699802	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.27	54.54	63.405	0.0019	0.0819	0.8	0.8819	F	F	40.27	562.27	244	463.33603098816	0.88632326773893	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.67	54.95	63.81	0.0024	0.0724	0.8	0.8724	F	F	40.67	563.67	244	463.33603098816	0.89332033656107	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 07:51:19	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.3	55.17	63.735	0.003	0.073	0.8	0.873	F	F	40.3	558.3	244	463.33603098816	0.88685909552881	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	73.71	52.67	63.19	0.0021	0.0921	0.8	0.8921	F	F	41.71	567.71	244	463.33603098816	0.91005071501827	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-29 19:51:23	FORECAST	2020	337	51	73.29	52.23	62.76	0.0006	0.1206	0.81	0.9306	F	F	41.29	582.29	244	463.33603098816	0.90354457764904	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.93	51.91	62.42	0	0.13	0.81	0.94	F	F	40.93	581.93	244	463.33603098816	0.89769901736837	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	69.8	52.68	61.24	0.0013	0.2213	0.81	1.0313	F	F	37.8	577.8	244	463.33603098816	0.83589927094025	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-29 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	70.25	52.79	61.52	0.0003	0.1003	0.81	0.9103	F	F	38.25	580.25	244	463.33603098816	0.84602568110585	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-29 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	337	51	75.49	53.07	64.28	0.0003	0.1003	0.81	0.9103	F	F	43.49	583.49	244	463.33603098816	0.93404971085406	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	337	51	76.61	53.2	64.905	0.0012	0.0712	0.8	0.8712	F	F	44.61	573.61	244	463.33603098816	0.94639997184102	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	76.63	53.53	65.08	0.0012	0.1112	0.82	0.9312	F	F	44.63	593.63	244	463.33603098816	0.94660264594179	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	76.26	52.6	64.43	0.0013	0.1213	0.82	0.9413	F	F	44.26	593.26	244	463.33603098816	0.9427539546564	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-28 11:50:40	FORECAST	2020	337	51	75.56	51.48	63.52	0.0019	0.1719	0.81	0.9819	F	F	43.56	589.56	244	463.33603098816	0.93488095952343	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	337	51	75.6	51.49	63.545	0.0019	0.2319	0.82	1.0519	F	F	43.6	585.6	244	463.33603098816	0.93535230742476	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-28 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	337	51	74.96	51.25	63.105	0.0019	0.2719	0.82	1.0919	F	F	42.96	585.96	244	463.33603098816	0.92748773102181	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.8	49.11	60.955	0.0024	0.0824	0.81	0.8924	F	F	40.8	576.8	244	463.33603098816	0.89552624298162	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-27 20:04:42	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.8	49.1	60.95	0.0024	0.0624	0.83	0.8924	F	F	40.8	591.8	244	463.33603098816	0.89552624298162	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	72.59	49.12	60.855	0.0035	0.0435	0.81	0.8535	F	F	40.59	593.59	244	463.33603098816	0.89194631012931	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-27 12:04:41	FORECAST	2020	337	51	68.54	46.19	57.365	0.003	0.503	0.81	1.313	F	F	36.54	583.54	244	463.33603098816	0.80531069148987	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	68.54	46.17	57.355	0.003	0.503	0.81	1.313	F	F	36.54	583.54	244	463.33603098816	0.80531069148987	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	337	51	69.85	46.57	58.21	0.003	0.503	0.81	1.313	F	F	37.85	587.85	244	463.33603098816	0.83704524095227	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-27 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	337	51	70.16	46.36	58.26	0.001	0.231	0.8	1.031	F	F	38.16	574.16	244	463.33603098816	0.84403411884441	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	70.16	46.35	58.255	0.001	0.231	0.81	1.041	F	F	38.16	595.16	244	463.33603098816	0.84403411884441	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	69.72	46.82	58.27	0.001	0.231	0.8	1.031	F	F	37.72	596.72	244	463.33603098816	0.83405490081636	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	67.31	45.89	56.6	0.0056	0.2356	0.8	1.0356	F	F	35.31	589.31	244	463.33603098816	0.77233446382045	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	67.31	45.86	56.585	0.0056	0.2356	0.8	1.0356	F	F	35.31	590.31	244	463.33603098816	0.77233446382045	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	337	51	68	44.98	56.49	0.0032	0.2432	0.8	1.0432	F	F	36	593	244	463.33603098816	0.79120544704817	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	71.39	49.73	60.56	0.0087	0.0087	0.8	0.8087	F	F	39.39	596.39	244	463.33603098816	0.86979730641069	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	71.4	49.7	60.55	0.0015	0.0015	0.8	0.8015	F	F	39.4	613.4	244	463.33603098816	0.86999395844855	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	70.84	48.53	59.685	0	0	0.81	0.81	F	F	38.84	611.84	244	463.33603098816	0.8586644500503	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	337	51	62.53	47.22	54.875	0.0009	0.0009	0.8	0.8009	F	F	30.53	597.53	244	463.33603098816	0.61902286359043	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	337	51	48.2	47.21	47.705	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	16.2	584.2	244	463.33603098816	0.1521763199695	93	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-25 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	337	51	50.35	49.9	50.125	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	18.35	594.35	244	463.33603098816	0.20397698750251	93	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L