Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 31, 2020

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DAY 336 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/01/2020 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.36°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.01°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.19°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.105 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 527 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.19 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.19 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.80 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.99 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 243 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.82 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 50 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-01 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2020	336	50	46.36004	38.01002	42.18503	0	0.19	0.19	0.8	0.99	F	F	14.36004	527.36004	243	462.82371512226	0	0.10472247675954	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-09-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	336	50	45.7	45.7	45.7	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	13.7	526.7	244	463.33603098816	0	0.093432030633197	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-31 12:04:47	FORECAST	2020	336	50	63.36	46.57	54.965	0	0.009	0.009	0.8	0.809	F	F	31.36	544.36	244	463.33603098816	0	0.65981416031085	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-31 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	336	50	58.36	42.45	50.405	0	0.0127	0.0127	0.8	0.8127	F	F	26.36	539.36	244	463.33603098816	0	0.46882585690477	94	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-31 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	336	50	60.39	46.79	53.59	0	0.02	0.02	0.8	0.82	F	F	28.39	541.39	244	463.33603098816	0	0.54807113885987	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	63.15	45.11	54.13	0	0.0493	0.0493	0.8	0.8493	F	F	31.15	536.15	243	462.82371512226	0	0.65223742553734	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	62.51	44.27	53.39	0	0.0529	0.0729	0.8	0.8729	F	F	30.51	547.51	243	462.82371512226	0	0.62878030035036	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	63.16	45.83	54.495	0	0.056	0.076	0.8	0.876	F	F	31.16	548.16	243	462.82371512226	0	0.65259963310374	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	336	50	63.59	46.42	55.005	0	0.0485	0.0685	0.8	0.8685	F	F	31.59	548.59	243	462.82371512226	0	0.66803902023487	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-30 07:51:19	FORECAST	2020	336	50	63.86	46.72	55.29	0	0.058	0.068	0.8	0.868	F	F	31.86	543.86	243	462.82371512226	0	0.67759179536686	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.22	46.74	55.98	0	0.0925	0.0925	0.8	0.8925	F	F	33.22	552.22	243	462.82371512226	0	0.7238484334992	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-29 19:51:23	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.09	46.79	55.94	0	0.122	0.132	0.8	0.932	F	F	33.09	567.09	243	462.82371512226	0	0.7195706667553	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	64.83	46.31	55.57	0	0.1261	0.1361	0.8	0.9361	F	F	32.83	566.83	243	462.82371512226	0	0.71092023075916	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.05	47.48	56.265	0	0.2071	0.2271	0.8	1.0271	F	F	33.05	566.05	243	462.82371512226	0	0.7182480138243	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-29 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.6	47.09	56.345	0	0.0725	0.1125	0.8	0.9125	F	F	33.6	567.6	243	462.82371512226	0	0.73616619762997	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-29 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.43	45.89	55.66	0	0.0702	0.1102	0.8	0.9102	F	F	33.43	566.43	243	462.82371512226	0	0.73069036970956	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.38	46.43	55.905	0	0.0512	0.0712	0.8	0.8712	F	F	33.38	555.38	243	462.82371512226	0	0.72906906764614	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.98	46.08	56.03	0	0.0671	0.1171	0.81	0.9271	F	F	33.98	574.98	243	462.82371512226	0	0.74819789953029	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.62	45.9	55.76	0	0.0786	0.1286	0.81	0.9386	F	F	33.62	574.62	243	462.82371512226	0	0.73680666530718	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-28 11:50:40	FORECAST	2020	336	50	62.4	45.64	54.02	0	0.172	0.172	0.81	0.982	F	F	30.4	572.4	243	462.82371512226	0	0.62469711143935	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	336	50	62.41	45.74	54.075	0	0.2066	0.2366	0.81	1.0466	F	F	30.41	568.41	243	462.82371512226	0	0.62506889594182	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-28 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	336	50	64.01	44.92	54.465	0	0.2516	0.2816	0.81	1.0916	F	F	32.01	569.01	243	462.82371512226	0	0.68284920415488	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	61.61	45.2	53.405	0	0.0793	0.0893	0.8	0.8893	F	F	29.61	561.61	243	462.82371512226	0	0.59498701011696	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-27 20:04:42	FORECAST	2020	336	50	61.62	45.19	53.405	0	0.059	0.069	0.82	0.889	F	F	29.62	576.62	243	462.82371512226	0	0.59536693097832	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	63.08	45.37	54.225	0	0.0436	0.0436	0.81	0.8536	F	F	31.08	579.08	243	462.82371512226	0	0.64969809924663	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-27 12:04:41	FORECAST	2020	336	50	60.57	45.14	52.855	0	0.4998	0.4998	0.81	1.3098	F	F	28.57	572.57	243	462.82371512226	0	0.55505202813854	94	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	60.58	45.12	52.85	0	0.4998	0.4998	0.81	1.3098	F	F	28.58	572.58	243	462.82371512226	0	0.55543937560602	94	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-27 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	336	50	59.85	44.7	52.275	0	0.5008	0.5008	0.81	1.3108	F	F	27.85	575.85	243	462.82371512226	0	0.52704771928723	94	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	58.39	44.44	51.415	0	0.2279	0.2279	0.8	1.0279	F	F	26.39	562.39	243	462.82371512226	0	0.46999571605812	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	58.39	44.41	51.4	0	0.2279	0.2279	0.81	1.0379	F	F	26.39	583.39	243	462.82371512226	0	0.46999571605812	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	59.73	45.11	52.42	0	0.2283	0.2283	0.8	1.0283	F	F	27.73	584.73	243	462.82371512226	0	0.5223635075989	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	58.93	45.88	52.405	0	0.2341	0.2341	0.8	1.0341	F	F	26.93	579.93	243	462.82371512226	0	0.49108770017044	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	58.92	45.84	52.38	0	0.2341	0.2341	0.8	1.0341	F	F	26.92	580.92	243	462.82371512226	0	0.49069669868523	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	336	50	57.59	45.48	51.535	0	0.2389	0.2389	0.8	1.0389	F	F	25.59	582.59	243	462.82371512226	0	0.43891970463786	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	66.44	46.64	56.54	0	0.0031	0.0031	0.8	0.8031	F	F	34.44	583.44	243	462.82371512226	0	0.76236617667631	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	66.45	46.62	56.535	0	0.0031	0.0031	0.8	0.8031	F	F	34.45	600.45	243	462.82371512226	0	0.76266925522809	94	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-08-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	64.92	45.57	55.245	0	0.0031	0.0031	0.81	0.8131	F	F	32.92	598.92	243	462.82371512226	0	0.7139287690552	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	64.6	43.17	53.885	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	32.6	592.6	243	462.82371512226	0	0.70316496933891	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	336	50	64.62	43.17	53.895	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	32.62	593.62	243	462.82371512226	0	0.7038431029485	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	336	50	66.86	44.41	55.635	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	34.86	601.86	243	462.82371512226	0	0.77491133521766	94	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-08-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.57	42.35	53.96	0	0.0056	0.0056	0.8	0.8056	F	F	33.57	592.57	243	462.82371512226	0	0.73520401035076	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.58	42.32	53.95	0	0.0053	0.0053	0.81	0.8153	F	F	33.58	602.58	243	462.82371512226	0	0.73552493729904	94	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-08-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	336	50	65.32	40.26	52.79	0	0.0042	0.0042	0.81	0.8142	F	F	33.32	602.32	243	462.82371512226	0	0.72711710589453	94	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-08-24 11:50:54	FORECAST	2020	336	50	54.12	45.2	49.66	0	0.4883	0.4883	0.8	1.2883	F	F	22.12	591.12	243	462.82371512226	0	0.31068985062743	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	336	50	47.33	45.2	46.265	0	0.3834	0.3834	0.8	1.1834	F	F	15.33	584.33	243	462.82371512226	0	0.12305131589371	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	336	50	48.05	47.05	47.55	0	0.1096	0.1096	0.8	0.9096	F	F	16.05	591.05	243	462.82371512226	0	0.13803214318857	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M