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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 21, 2020

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DAY 326 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/22/2020 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 53.89°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 45.16°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 49.52°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.226 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 527 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.75 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.79 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.10 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.89 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 233 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.59 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 40 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 60.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-22 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2020	326	40	53.88998	45.15998	49.52498	0.75	0.79	0.1	0.89	F	F	21.88998	526.88998	233	457.5920440763	0.22619774490362	94	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-08-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	49.26	49.26	49.26	0.0183	0.0583	0.1	0.1583	F	F	17.26	522.26	234	458.12420256731	0.11508597987826	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	57.79	48.16	52.975	0.3522	0.3922	0.1	0.4922	F	F	25.79	530.79	234	458.12420256731	0.35424507213995	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	59.55	49.45	54.5	0.3559	0.3959	0.1	0.4959	F	F	27.55	532.55	234	458.12420256731	0.41936266454675	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	326	40	57.78	49.43	53.605	0.2682	0.3082	0.1	0.4082	F	F	25.78	530.78	234	458.12420256731	0.35388504341908	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-21 00:04:30	FORECAST	2020	326	40	56.99	49.46	53.225	0.3523	0.3523	0.1	0.4523	F	F	24.99	521.99	233	457.5920440763	0.32587848708253	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	57.79	48.98	53.385	0.4019	0.4419	0.1	0.5419	F	F	25.79	536.79	233	457.5920440763	0.35424507213995	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-20 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	326	40	58.56	48.64	53.6	0.3542	0.3942	0.1	0.4942	F	F	26.56	537.56	233	457.5920440763	0.38233589239008	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-20 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	326	40	57.8	47.86	52.83	0.5209	0.5609	0.1	0.6609	F	F	25.8	536.8	233	457.5920440763	0.35460523111497	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	58.15	47.79	52.97	0.2899	0.3699	0.1	0.4699	F	F	26.15	538.15	233	457.5920440763	0.36729057942086	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	326	40	59.79	47.66	53.725	0.2836	0.4836	0.1	0.5836	F	F	27.79	536.79	233	457.5920440763	0.42846112468034	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	60.32	48.09	54.205	0.2333	0.3533	0.1	0.4533	F	F	28.32	527.32	233	457.5920440763	0.44868197920726	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	59.89	48.48	54.185	0.3592	0.5892	0.1	0.6892	F	F	27.89	540.89	233	457.5920440763	0.4322636919166	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	59.83	47.04	53.435	0.3778	0.7078	0.1	0.8078	F	F	27.83	539.83	233	457.5920440763	0.4299813753369	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	58.52	47.85	53.185	0.3509	0.5609	0.1	0.6609	F	F	26.52	539.52	233	457.5920440763	0.38085979651932	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	58.18	47.72	52.95	0.4246	0.5846	0.1	0.6846	F	F	26.18	537.18	233	457.5920440763	0.36838489399127	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	58.53	48.22	53.375	0.4345	0.6345	0.1	0.7345	F	F	26.53	532.53	233	457.5920440763	0.38122865895516	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	60.52	47.36	53.94	0.3954	0.6554	0.1	0.7554	F	F	28.52	522.52	233	457.5920440763	0.45635020703513	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-18 19:51:53	FORECAST	2020	326	40	61.03	46.99	54.01	0.5519	0.7019	0.11	0.8119	F	F	29.03	545.03	233	457.5920440763	0.47597125388689	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	61.8	47.98	54.89	0.5644	0.6944	0.11	0.8044	F	F	29.8	541.8	233	457.5920440763	0.50569052727057	94	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	61.68	47.66	54.67	0.8445	0.9245	0.11	1.0345	F	F	29.68	548.68	233	457.5920440763	0.50105684681078	94	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 07:51:36	FORECAST	2020	326	40	57.69	48.52	53.105	0.3602	0.4302	0.1	0.5302	F	F	25.69	538.69	233	457.5920440763	0.35065069403927	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	55.7	48.33	52.015	0.4604	0.6304	0.13	0.7604	F	F	23.7	533.7	233	457.5920440763	0.28224125789415	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	62.08	48.58	55.33	0.2953	0.4253	0.13	0.5553	F	F	30.08	523.08	233	457.5920440763	0.51649838316526	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	62.09	48.59	55.34	0.3034	0.3634	0.13	0.4934	F	F	30.09	548.09	233	457.5920440763	0.51688420113786	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	62	48.77	55.385	0.3389	0.3889	0.13	0.5189	F	F	30	550	233	457.5920440763	0.51341131354553	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	59.55	45.9	52.725	0.7504	0.7904	0.13	0.9204	F	F	27.55	547.55	233	457.5920440763	0.41936266454675	94	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	59.57	45.93	52.75	1.1434	1.2334	0.12	1.3534	F	F	27.57	537.57	233	457.5920440763	0.42011929548064	94	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	326	40	58.42	45.75	52.085	1.2332	1.3332	0.12	1.4532	F	F	26.42	542.42	233	457.5920440763	0.3771771753558	94	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	70.35	52.58	61.465	0.0311	0.0411	0.15	0.1911	F	F	38.35	545.35	233	457.5920440763	0.80008739465564	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 19:51:43	FORECAST	2020	326	40	70.37	52.6	61.485	0.0311	0.0411	0.15	0.1911	F	F	38.37	558.37	233	457.5920440763	0.80062900939006	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	326	40	68.69	52.39	60.54	0.02	0.02	0.15	0.17	F	F	36.69	557.69	233	457.5920440763	0.75213001372179	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	65.34	51.35	58.345	0.1216	0.1316	0.15	0.2816	F	F	33.34	557.34	233	457.5920440763	0.63942406471889	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	61.98	50.98	56.48	0.1318	0.1418	0.13	0.2718	F	F	29.98	552.98	233	457.5920440763	0.51263941331232	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-16 03:52:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	62	51.03	56.515	0.1318	0.1318	0.15	0.2818	F	F	30	561	233	457.5920440763	0.51341131354553	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	72.67	51.91	62.29	0.0021	0.0021	0.15	0.1521	F	F	40.67	567.67	233	457.5920440763	0.85693358024349	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	72.69	51.9	62.295	0.0021	0.0021	0.16	0.1621	F	F	40.69	583.69	233	457.5920440763	0.85737079826416	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	70.17	51.93	61.05	0.008	0.008	0.15	0.158	F	F	38.17	582.17	233	457.5920440763	0.79517324455519	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	68.33	50.64	59.485	0.0095	0.0095	0.25	0.2595	F	F	36.33	570.33	233	457.5920440763	0.74097552766293	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	68.34	50.63	59.485	0.0095	0.0095	0.27	0.2795	F	F	36.34	566.34	233	457.5920440763	0.74128883756121	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 03:52:05	FORECAST	2020	326	40	68.52	50.25	59.385	0.1158	0.1158	0.28	0.3958	F	F	36.52	572.52	233	457.5920440763	0.74689473536919	94	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	72.12	51.67	61.895	0.0027	0.0027	0.21	0.2127	F	F	40.12	586.12	233	457.5920440763	0.8445559834653	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	326	40	72.14	54.96	63.55	0.0024	0.0024	0.21	0.2124	F	F	40.14	600.14	233	457.5920440763	0.8450180671643	94	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	75.88	55.41	65.645	0.0007	0.0007	0.22	0.2207	F	F	43.88	604.88	233	457.5920440763	0.91587071094434	94	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	66.94	53.14	60.04	0.0002	0.0102	0.2	0.2102	F	F	34.94	590.94	233	457.5920440763	0.69560348208814	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	326	40	54.45	53.12	53.785	0.0002	0.0102	0.21	0.2202	F	F	22.45	575.45	233	457.5920440763	0.24283644143152	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	326	40	55.05	54.05	54.55	0.0002	0.0102	0.19	0.2002	F	F	23.05	578.05	233	457.5920440763	0.26137224110665	94	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L