Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 29, 2020

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DAY 303 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/30/2020 12:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.22°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 62.22°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.22°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.359 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 30 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 557 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 210 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.36 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 17 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 2 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	62.22	62.22	62.22	0	0.0023	0.0023	0.03	0.0323	F	F	30.22	557.22	211	445.35804209427	0	0.35899282138079	96	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-29 11:52:57	FORECAST	2020	303	17	77.67	62.44	70.055	0	0.0095	0.0095	0.03	0.0395	F	F	45.67	572.67	211	445.35804209427	0	0.92163457944923	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	303	17	77.43	54.77	66.1	0	0.0136	0.0136	0.03	0.0436	F	F	45.43	572.43	211	445.35804209427	0	0.91750658879449	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	78.69	56.27	67.48	0	0.014	0.014	0.03	0.044	F	F	46.69	573.69	211	445.35804209427	0	0.93745388481386	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	79.39	54.37	66.88	0	0.0106	0.0206	0.03	0.0506	F	F	47.39	557.39	210	444.77727990492	0	0.94678921360248	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	79.4	52.55	65.975	0	0.006	0.026	0.03	0.056	F	F	47.4	574.4	210	444.77727990492	0	0.94691412285942	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	79.74	52.23	65.985	0	0.0067	0.0267	0.03	0.0567	F	F	47.74	574.74	210	444.77727990492	0	0.95102482291794	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 11:58:30	FORECAST	2020	303	17	79.63	55.18	67.405	0	0.0027	0.0227	0.03	0.0527	F	F	47.63	574.63	210	444.77727990492	0	0.94972358227786	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	78.92	55.74	67.33	0	0.0027	0.0127	0.03	0.0427	F	F	46.92	572.92	210	444.77727990492	0	0.94065213990032	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	79.47	55.88	67.675	0	0.0052	0.0252	0.03	0.0552	F	F	47.47	571.47	210	444.77727990492	0	0.94778201088282	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	78.92	55.57	67.245	0	0.0047	0.0147	0.03	0.0447	F	F	46.92	553.92	210	444.77727990492	0	0.94065213990032	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	79.21	55.52	67.365	0	0.0045	0.0245	0.03	0.0545	F	F	47.21	573.21	210	444.77727990492	0	0.94450090265765	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	78.53	55.4	66.965	0	0.0011	0.0111	0.03	0.0411	F	F	46.53	572.53	210	444.77727990492	0	0.93515115069715	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	303	17	77.97	54.69	66.33	0	0.0036	0.0136	0.03	0.0436	F	F	45.97	571.97	210	444.77727990492	0	0.92657269222055	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-27 07:58:29	FORECAST	2020	303	17	77.82	55.21	66.515	0	0.0034	0.0234	0.03	0.0534	F	F	45.82	571.82	210	444.77727990492	0	0.9241341251034	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-27 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	303	17	77.88	55.5	66.69	0	0.0042	0.0142	0.03	0.0442	F	F	45.88	572.88	210	444.77727990492	0	0.92511682639935	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	76.86	54.64	65.75	0	0.0493	0.0593	0.03	0.0893	F	F	44.86	559.86	210	444.77727990492	0	0.90705195988185	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	76.75	55.24	65.995	0	0.0655	0.0755	0.04	0.1155	F	F	44.75	575.75	210	444.77727990492	0	0.90492667371421	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-26 15:52:28	FORECAST	2020	303	17	76.01	54.96	65.485	0	0.0653	0.0653	0.04	0.1053	F	F	44.01	574.01	210	444.77727990492	0	0.88969627002788	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-26 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	303	17	76.05	51.91	63.98	0	0.002	0.002	0.04	0.042	F	F	44.05	576.05	210	444.77727990492	0	0.89056169083678	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-26 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	303	17	76.06	51.73	63.895	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.04	0.0422	F	F	44.06	570.06	210	444.77727990492	0	0.89077728443265	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	303	17	79.43	51.58	65.505	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.04	0.0402	F	F	47.43	578.43	210	444.77727990492	0	0.9472874606404	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	81.55	50.97	66.26	0	0.0025	0.0025	0.04	0.0425	F	F	49.55	574.55	210	444.77727990492	0	0.96882920187406	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	81.56	50.5	66.03	0	0.0025	0.0025	0.04	0.0425	F	F	49.56	587.56	210	444.77727990492	0	0.96891025370059	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	81.97	53.9	67.935	0	0.0072	0.0072	0.04	0.0472	F	F	49.97	586.97	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97208662442527	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	80.07	53.53	66.8	0	0.0098	0.0098	0.04	0.0498	F	F	48.07	580.07	210	444.77727990492	0	0.95476820255453	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 08:03:45	FORECAST	2020	303	17	80.36	53.61	66.985	0	0.0098	0.0098	0.04	0.0498	F	F	48.36	579.36	210	444.77727990492	0	0.95786515959413	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	80.48	53.35	66.915	0	0.001	0.001	0.04	0.041	F	F	48.48	590.48	210	444.77727990492	0	0.95909556933951	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	78.06	54.35	66.205	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.04	0.0416	F	F	46.06	590.06	210	444.77727990492	0	0.92800688413874	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	78.06	54.34	66.2	0	0.0016	0.0116	0.08	0.0916	F	F	46.06	602.06	210	444.77727990492	0	0.92800688413874	96	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-07-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	74.88	53.22	64.05	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.07	0.0716	F	F	42.88	594.88	210	444.77727990492	0	0.86320180097152	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	75.11	50.55	62.83	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.07	0.0709	F	F	43.11	589.11	210	444.77727990492	0	0.86891842084319	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	75.12	50.55	62.835	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.07	0.0709	F	F	43.12	588.12	210	444.77727990492	0	0.8691631803812	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	303	17	71.17	48.37	59.77	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.08	0.0809	F	F	39.17	591.17	210	444.77727990492	0	0.74793254301821	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-24 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	303	17	71.01	51.65	61.33	0	0.3332	0.3332	0.08	0.4132	F	F	39.01	585.01	210	444.77727990492	0	0.74202376459849	96	4	2	4	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2020-07-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	71	51.65	61.325	0	0.3332	0.3332	0.09	0.4232	F	F	39	599	210	444.77727990492	0	0.7416520981451	96	4	2	4	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2020-07-23 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	303	17	71.85	52.82	62.335	0	0.3338	0.3338	0.08	0.4138	F	F	39.85	598.85	210	444.77727990492	0	0.77222826544066	96	4	2	4	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2020-07-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	74.91	50.72	62.815	0	0.0011	0.0011	0.07	0.0711	F	F	42.91	596.91	210	444.77727990492	0	0.86395693548159	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	74.9	50.71	62.805	0	0.0011	0.0011	0.07	0.0711	F	F	42.9	591.9	210	444.77727990492	0	0.86370554074984	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	72.44	51.16	61.8	0	0.0054	0.0054	0.06	0.0654	F	F	40.44	604.44	210	444.77727990492	0	0.7921969674264	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-23 00:03:42	FORECAST	2020	303	17	71.84	50.27	61.055	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.06	0.0622	F	F	39.84	590.84	210	444.77727990492	0	0.77188077571541	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-22 19:52:41	FORECAST	2020	303	17	71.84	50.26	61.05	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.06	0.0622	F	F	39.84	602.84	210	444.77727990492	0	0.77188077571541	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	303	17	72.22	49.19	60.705	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.06	0.0622	F	F	40.22	599.22	210	444.77727990492	0	0.7848745436592	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	303	17	59.3	49.45	54.375	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.07	0.0702	F	F	27.3	578.3	210	444.77727990492	0	0.24292032397428	96	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-22 07:58:32	FORECAST	2020	303	17	51.71	49.43	50.57	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.09	0.0902	F	F	19.71	569.71	210	444.77727990492	0	0.058109615991744	96	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-22 03:53:04	FORECAST	2020	303	17	51.37	49.99	50.68	0	0	0	0.1	0.1	F	F	19.37	573.37	210	444.77727990492	0	0.053691974056087	96	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L