Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 12, 2020

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DAY 164 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/12/2020 09:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.24°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.21°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.23°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.621 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -7 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.60 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.67 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 185 in SWE DAY: 71 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.61 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 81.14 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -121 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-12 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-121	38.24	22.21	30.225	190.91163033331	0.0159	0.0659	3.6	3.6659	F	F	6.24	-6.76	72	438.61036466855	83.735819799963	0.62052932321179	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-12 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	164	-121	34.27	22.52	28.395	191.01200438778	0.0164	0.0664	3.6	3.6664	F	F	2.27	-10.73	72	438.65097040031	83.787601082808	0.4276355442184	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-03-12 01:00:01	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	38.73	22.33	30.53	190.9030399095	0.0115	0.0615	4.69	4.7515	T	F	6.73	-10.27	71	438.00042360602	83.615612348038	0.64328754539958	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	38.17	20.41	29.29	190.93360785335	0.0143	0.0643	4.69	4.7543	T	F	6.17	-10.83	71	438.0128381393	83.631371472024	0.61724165068798	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	38.08	21.42	29.75	190.92774157317	0.0133	0.0633	4.69	4.7533	T	F	6.08	-10.92	71	438.01045574661	83.628347101135	0.61300223313025	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	37.2	22.78	29.99	190.94550824132	0.0113	0.0613	4.69	4.7513	T	F	5.2	-11.8	71	438.01767097317	83.63750680265	0.57091331625978	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	37.12	23.23	30.175	191.03061214939	0.0097	0.0597	4.69	4.7497	T	F	5.12	-11.88	71	438.05222803007	83.68138527399	0.56703897483502	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	37.42	23.39	30.405	191.19229650697	0.0117	0.1217	4.69	4.8117	T	F	5.42	-9.58	71	438.11786055839	83.764759900879	0.58153150294985	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-11 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	36.86	23.29	30.075	191.36841357454	0.0114	0.1714	4.69	4.8614	T	F	4.86	-11.14	71	438.18932109281	83.855595222838	0.55440469566297	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-10 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	37.15	23.56	30.355	191.45306212457	0.01	0.2	4.69	4.89	T	F	5.15	-10.85	71	438.22365636609	83.899260906716	0.56849262885432	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-10 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	37.42	24.13	30.775	191.36758364281	0.0104	0.1804	4.69	4.8704	T	F	5.42	-9.58	71	438.1889844181	83.855167126988	0.58153150294985	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-10 12:59:15	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	37.34	24.57	30.955	191.35073565107	0.0137	0.1837	4.69	4.8737	T	F	5.34	-10.66	71	438.18214961478	83.846476677956	0.57767678667437	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-10 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	37.15	24.38	30.765	191.3225271731	0.0128	0.2028	4.69	4.8928	T	F	5.15	-7.85	71	438.17070549524	83.831926708569	0.56849262885432	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-10 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	36.52	24.6	30.56	191.36699822252	0.0112	0.1912	4.69	4.8812	T	F	4.52	-12.48	71	438.18874693283	83.854865155424	0.53780119518139	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-10 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	38.2	24.21	31.205	191.09642236718	0.0075	0.1975	4.69	4.8875	T	F	6.2	-4.8	71	438.07894562336	83.715319223009	0.61865170296514	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-09 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	40.38	23.81	32.095	191.28868904763	0.019	0.219	4.69	4.909	T	F	8.38	-4.62	71	438.15697635788	83.814473604573	0.71587072465243	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-09 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	41.08	24.6	32.84	191.30938169821	0.019	0.229	4.69	4.919	T	F	9.08	-3.92	71	438.16537212393	83.825146422594	0.74437669366821	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-09 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	40.75	25.07	32.91	191.22833452425	0.0191	0.2391	4.69	4.9291	T	F	8.75	-2.25	71	438.13248579703	83.783345559935	0.73112611877643	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-09 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	38.6	26.25	32.425	190.76602595595	0.0048	0.1648	4.69	4.8548	T	F	6.6	-0.4	71	437.94476640004	83.54498267434	0.63729533242343	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-09 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	44.44	24.39	34.415	190.63782897073	0.0046	0.1246	4.69	4.8146	T	F	12.44	6.44	71	437.89267324126	83.478908548901	0.85795770825157	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-03-09 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	44.47	25.54	35.005	190.51201197182	0.0075	0.1175	4.69	4.8075	T	F	12.47	7.47	71	437.84153069995	83.414070938467	0.85878789797921	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-03-08 20:59:54	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	40.78	26.41	33.595	190.53014486384	0.0134	0.0734	4.69	4.7634	T	F	8.78	2.78	71	437.84890243045	83.423414808546	0.73234479990604	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-08 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	40.56	27.69	34.125	190.52426162012	0.0165	0.0865	4.69	4.7765	T	F	8.56	3.56	71	437.84651069876	83.420383153826	0.7233437601825	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-08 13:00:22	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	40.6	27.74	34.17	190.66304318451	0.0165	0.1065	4.69	4.7965	T	F	8.6	4.6	71	437.90292043884	83.491903430252	0.72499127402827	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-08 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	43.46	26.87	35.165	190.66704594382	0.0059	0.0659	4.69	4.7559	T	F	11.46	-0.54	71	437.90454712226	83.493966405167	0.82902456689311	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-08 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	44.55	27.36	35.955	190.36516627453	0.0059	0.0359	4.68	4.7159	T	F	12.55	2.55	71	437.78181966516	83.338408892525	0.86098567449171	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	44.59	27.38	35.985	190.3520175333	0.0059	0.0359	4.68	4.7159	T	F	12.59	7.59	71	437.77647198046	83.331634670093	0.86207580939146	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	45.03	28.32	36.675	189.18991728154	0.0047	0.0347	4.85	4.8847	T	F	13.03	21.03	71	437.30313157225	82.733343289112	0.87368377276225	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	44.06	27.9	35.98	189.2389383029	0.0048	0.0448	4.86	4.9048	T	F	12.06	21.06	71	437.32312678858	82.758564208773	0.84715689637364	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	44.08	27.92	36	189.94899500105	0.0048	0.0448	4.86	4.9048	T	F	12.08	20.08	71	437.61247324397	83.124049492615	0.84773855408064	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	41.88	28.85	35.365	190.04446354528	0.0591	0.0591	4.86	4.9191	T	F	9.88	15.88	71	437.65133667055	83.17321349743	0.77502905833915	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	41.57	28.79	35.18	190.63749706875	0.0593	0.0593	4.97	5.0293	T	F	9.57	19.57	71	437.89253835006	83.478737496137	0.76340476874309	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	41.59	28.81	35.2	192.3641259671	0.0593	0.0593	4.78	4.8393	T	F	9.59	18.59	71	438.5927365285	84.369508417825	0.76416454264457	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	44.83	30.39	37.61	190.93641995176	0.0319	0.0319	4.88	4.9119	T	F	12.83	18.83	71	438.01398016604	83.632821261724	0.86849438489438	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	44.48	30.55	37.515	190.65356038113	0.032	0.032	4.87	4.902	T	F	12.48	25.48	71	437.89906665148	83.487016144678	0.85906389745895	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	44.5	30.57	37.535	191.15458746821	0.032	0.032	4.86	4.892	T	F	12.5	23.5	71	438.10255573899	83.745313311055	0.85961480115744	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	48.19	32.22	40.205	191.15073692726	0.0029	0.0029	4.92	4.9229	T	F	16.19	23.19	71	438.10099285257	83.743327632332	0.93750964299056	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	42	26.53	34.265	192.34575614055	0.0312	0.0712	5.03	5.1012	T	F	10	13	71	438.58530318021	84.360021772328	0.77944052081434	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 23:59:56	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	42	26.53	34.265	196.33061659031	0.0312	0.0712	5.27	5.3412	T	F	10	20	71	440.18968105103	86.42271149744	0.77944052081434	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	40.58	27.73	34.155	196.64084005209	0.0467	0.0767	5.3	5.3767	T	F	8.58	18.58	71	440.31390272368	86.5836957182	0.72416812077034	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	39.22	27.95	33.585	195.62585311948	0.0021	0.0221	5.19	5.2121	T	F	7.22	13.22	71	439.90711109407	86.057203901104	0.66554697543477	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-05 11:59:55	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	36.77	27.95	32.36	195.70447801853	0.0015	0.0215	5.17	5.1915	T	F	4.77	10.77	71	439.93866026801	86.097965867924	0.5500177135821	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	30.91	28.05	29.48	195.90111957548	0.0171	0.1371	5.15	5.2871	T	F	-1.09	1.91	71	440.017537448	86.199928218907	0.27542015148324	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	26.77	25.83	26.3	196.31438167765	0.0406	0.2306	5.2	5.4306	T	F	-5.23	-4.23	71	440.18317746727	86.41428830939	0.13415459148464	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	164	-122	26.77	26.77	26.77	194.64572093152	0.0082	0.1982	5.15	5.3482	T	F	-5.23	-0.23	71	439.51329213793	85.549381607173	0.13415459148464	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L