Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 10, 2020

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DAY 162 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/10/2020 01:00:03 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.06°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.48°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.77°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.606 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -14 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.67 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.72 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 187 in SWE DAY: 69 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.41 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 81.80 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -123 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-10 12:59:15	FORECAST	2020	162	-123	37.06	30.48	33.77	190.94360222944	0.019	0.049	4.67	4.719	T	F	5.06	-13.94	70	437.40818532653	83.52029455089	0.60603967474741	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-10 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-123	38.93	24.17	31.55	190.84564240639	0.0239	0.0539	4.67	4.7239	T	F	6.93	-12.07	70	437.36824711366	83.469824088565	0.68781789124255	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-10 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-123	34.62	22.9	28.76	190.9247069819	0.0186	0.0486	4.67	4.7186	T	F	2.62	-16.38	70	437.40048250897	83.510558956766	0.4924581456405	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-03-10 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	39.45	22.64	31.045	190.80595843323	0.0252	0.0552	4.67	4.7252	T	F	7.45	-5.55	69	436.74082235393	83.332751196161	0.70919619960747	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-09 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	39.8	21.95	30.875	190.81101271993	0.0205	0.0505	4.67	4.7205	T	F	7.8	-5.2	69	436.74289128416	83.335353384159	0.7231890581808	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-09 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	40.17	21.93	31.05	190.810570509	0.0244	0.0544	4.67	4.7244	T	F	8.17	-4.83	69	436.74271026985	83.335125712238	0.73761394645854	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-09 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	39.94	24.23	32.085	190.85117919853	0.0227	0.0527	4.67	4.7227	T	F	7.94	-5.06	69	436.75933215391	83.356033567539	0.72869247697868	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-09 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	40.68	23.6	32.14	190.74377610682	0.0091	0.0391	4.67	4.7091	T	F	8.68	-4.32	69	436.71536636211	83.300738063782	0.75684705197571	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-09 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	40.56	23.47	32.015	190.77122175317	0.0016	0.0316	4.67	4.7016	T	F	8.56	-4.44	69	436.72660246425	83.314867524214	0.75239118265177	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-09 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	40.99	25.25	33.12	190.71343073266	0.0021	0.0321	4.67	4.7021	T	F	8.99	-3.01	69	436.70294221495	83.285116320861	0.76815493129466	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-08 20:59:54	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	41.32	23.28	32.3	190.66102033829	0.0008	0.0308	4.67	4.7008	T	F	9.32	-3.68	69	436.68148184707	83.258136891798	0.77986405331576	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-08 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	41.55	23.86	32.705	190.64298485614	0.0009	0.0309	4.67	4.7009	T	F	9.55	-3.45	69	436.67409623749	83.248853116072	0.7878207111485	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-08 13:00:22	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	41.71	22.32	32.015	190.67488096372	0.0014	0.0314	4.67	4.7014	T	F	9.71	-3.29	69	436.68715760447	83.265271794619	0.79325541368224	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-08 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	41.3	22.2	31.75	190.75185447525	0	0.03	4.67	4.7	T	F	9.3	-3.7	69	436.71867368467	83.304896889322	0.77916418970607	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-08 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	41.62	21.72	31.67	190.75421969744	0.0006	0.0206	4.67	4.6906	T	F	9.62	-8.38	69	436.71964200507	83.306114537222	0.79020858056522	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.01	21.98	31.995	190.75254971258	0.0002	0.0202	4.67	4.6902	T	F	10.01	-2.99	69	436.71895831498	83.305254806405	0.80322095588226	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.38	22.7	32.54	189.67287266554	0.0019	0.0119	4.85	4.8619	T	F	10.38	8.38	69	436.27633205109	82.749785176114	0.81510386359542	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.8	22.04	32.42	189.69579809059	0.0012	0.0212	4.85	4.8712	T	F	10.8	8.8	69	436.28574321694	82.761572255085	0.82804044366502	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	41.79	22.02	31.905	190.4065371993	0.0013	0.0213	4.85	4.8713	T	F	9.79	7.79	69	436.57723857775	83.127160217622	0.79594163184917	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	37.39	22.68	30.035	190.51440131099	0.0028	0.0128	4.86	4.8728	T	F	5.39	2.39	69	436.62143090203	83.18267050785	0.6209404263313	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.86	23.41	33.135	191.06583940338	0.0033	0.0233	4.96	4.9833	T	F	10.86	5.86	69	436.84716804752	83.466570853989	0.82984030576799	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.88	23.4	33.14	192.78913848657	0.0023	0.0123	4.78	4.7923	T	F	10.88	4.88	69	437.5505846161	84.355000252433	0.83043757406407	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	37.74	21.35	29.545	191.81300766546	0.001	0.001	4.89	4.891	T	F	5.74	0.74	69	437.15252545507	83.85154071609	0.63654981276217	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.28	21.11	31.695	191.53858810916	0.0013	0.0113	4.87	4.8813	T	F	10.28	8.28	69	437.04044128021	83.710109069415	0.81193699156657	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.3	21.14	31.72	192.04337095782	0.0013	0.0213	4.85	4.8713	T	F	10.3	6.3	69	437.24655494937	83.970302352169	0.81257302405114	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.29	23.68	32.985	192.44054226059	0.0002	0.0202	4.91	4.9302	T	F	10.29	1.29	69	437.4085428504	84.175137175546	0.81225517379958	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.22	21.85	32.035	192.62222505949	0	0.02	5.02	5.04	T	F	10.22	2.22	69	437.48258844834	84.268869611702	0.81002093198293	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 23:59:56	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	42.22	21.85	32.035	196.59916604522	0	0.03	5.25	5.28	T	F	10.22	9.22	69	439.09487679985	86.325686593578	0.81002093198293	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	41.4	17.92	29.66	196.92890756644	0.0014	0.0714	5.24	5.3114	T	F	9.4	8.4	69	439.22782730914	86.49665620477	0.7826507769698	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	37.12	18.85	27.985	196.05454243381	0.0012	0.0012	5.2	5.2012	T	F	5.12	5.12	69	438.87504267174	86.043445676626	0.608761184528	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-05 11:59:55	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	37.12	18.85	27.985	195.9827478089	0.0012	0.0212	5.16	5.1812	T	F	5.12	5.12	69	438.84604049904	86.006252882059	0.608761184528	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	39.01	24.12	31.565	195.98723149857	0.0887	0.1287	5.12	5.2487	T	F	7.01	1.01	69	438.84785188615	86.008575540262	0.69115080244089	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	38.58	24.31	31.445	196.00002310878	0.0891	0.1691	5.13	5.2991	T	F	6.58	-0.42	69	438.85301951623	86.015201966541	0.67305802789055	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	38.58	24.31	31.445	194.56610838597	0.0891	0.1691	5.08	5.2491	T	F	6.58	3.58	69	438.27269142908	85.2730119832	0.67305802789055	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-04 19:59:56	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	36.1	19.59	27.845	196.03986423344	0.5841	0.6341	5.09	5.7241	T	F	4.1	2.1	69	438.86911369275	86.035841464577	0.56187809238374	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-03-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	31.91	21.89	26.9	197.1426745676	0.5842	0.6042	5.18	5.7842	T	F	-0.09	-4.09	69	439.31395786523	86.60752862843	0.36742408342	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	31.91	21.89	26.9	197.36636005694	0.5842	0.6042	5.2	5.8042	T	F	-0.09	-4.09	69	439.40403470068	86.723574923209	0.36742408342	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-04 07:59:35	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	40.75	17.65	29.2	194.78169555849	0.0014	0.0314	5.27	5.3014	T	F	8.75	13.75	69	438.3600780451	85.384519266775	0.7594261800848	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-04 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	40.96	17.97	29.465	195.59573092798	0.0014	0.0614	5.34	5.4014	T	F	8.96	13.96	69	438.68960994327	85.805814907363	0.76707356094922	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	41.19	17.97	29.58	195.85063846209	0.0014	0.0614	4.91	4.9714	T	F	9.19	15.19	69	438.79265975605	85.9378225657	0.77529228276159	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	33.15	20.31	26.73	195.74460008338	0.0008	0.0608	5.48	5.5408	T	F	1.15	4.15	69	438.74980041412	85.882904218726	0.42372849485232	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-03-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	37.88	17.62	27.75	195.25276491737	0.0007	0.0907	5.43	5.5207	T	F	5.88	9.88	69	438.55085598452	85.628267187858	0.64273230600762	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	29.34	17.62	23.48	196.66067145177	0.0007	0.0907	5.59	5.6807	T	F	-2.66	5.34	69	439.11968399117	86.357571901393	0.26044980603896	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	23.72	18.43	21.075	196.4393571443	0.0002	0.0702	5.46	5.5302	T	F	-8.28	-13.28	69	439.0304023958	86.242850013432	0.095838520657718	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-03-03 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	24.62	21.06	22.84	196.05026271324	0	0.05	5.42	5.47	T	F	-7.38	-7.38	69	438.8733139831	86.041228504217	0.11521242011764	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-03-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	162	-124	21.06	21.06	21.06	194.8295018367	0	0.05	4.46	4.51	T	F	-10.94	-3.94	69	438.37944947409	85.409249756485	0.052581950065567	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L