Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 12, 2020

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DAY 135 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.70°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.50°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.60°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.433 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -9 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.10 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 22.38 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 22.60 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 168 in SWE DAY: 43 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 393.96 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 66.19 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -150 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 1.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	136	-150	28.56	28.56	28.56	137.01237363894	0.0031	0.0231	9.24	9.2631	T	T	-3.44	-36.44	43	393.95950441823	53.977326817961	0.20877159325169	88	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.33	22.63	30.48	136.88709030552	0.0126	0.0326	9.24	9.2726	T	T	6.33	-26.67	43	393.89459621467	53.919085162893	0.65933198711374	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.58	26.76	32.67	136.87954119534	0.0121	0.0321	9.24	9.2721	T	T	6.58	-26.42	43	393.89068442662	53.915576165434	0.67071636793014	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-12 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.73	26.65	32.69	0	0.0136	0.0336	9.24	9.2736	T	T	6.73	-26.27	43	309.06959209287	0	0.67747267298116	88	3	1	1	1	5	2	12.5	WET	H
2020-02-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	34.3	26.45	30.375	0.0015683150093598	0.0199	0.0399	9.24	9.2799	T	T	2.3	-30.7	43	309.07074265233	0.00048472028465561	0.46290433376672	88	2	1	1	1	5	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-12 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.84	26.3	32.57	136.92299694596	0.015	0.035	9.24	9.275	T	T	6.84	-26.16	43	393.9132012439	53.935776050889	0.68239050006324	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.54	27.43	32.985	136.90075078124	0.01	0.03	9.24	9.27	T	T	6.54	-26.46	43	393.90167459147	53.925434985562	0.66890512027321	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-11 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.23	26.54	32.385	136.91250998255	0.0159	0.1159	9.24	9.3559	T	T	6.23	-17.77	43	393.90776759821	53.930901163495	0.65473657054545	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.23	26.56	32.395	136.9124964305	0.0159	0.1159	9.24	9.3559	T	T	6.23	-17.77	43	393.90776057635	53.930894863856	0.65473657054545	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	37.8	26.21	32.005	137.1381031128	0.0254	0.1254	9.24	9.3654	T	T	5.8	-18.2	43	394.02462300104	54.035789378099	0.63472288285714	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-11 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	37.68	26.37	32.025	0.2761501829202	0.0257	0.1357	9.24	9.3757	T	T	5.68	-22.32	43	309.27211290609	0.085405550551134	0.62906876330948	88	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	H
2020-02-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	37.51	26.39	31.95	0.29631269259281	0.0267	0.1367	9.24	9.3767	T	T	5.51	-23.49	43	309.28689396251	0.091645632333699	0.62101111179857	88	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-10 16:02:16	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	37.79	27.68	32.735	137.24024779957	0.0285	0.1285	9.24	9.3685	T	T	5.79	-23.21	43	394.07751109767	54.083295275283	0.63425280305515	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	32.8	28.19	30.495	137.04714191961	0.0356	0.1156	9.24	9.3556	T	T	0.8	-23.2	43	393.97751390039	53.993492260643	0.38949988826974	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	37.75	28.56	33.155	136.93517383862	0.0429	0.1129	9.24	9.3529	T	T	5.75	-17.25	43	393.91951031673	53.941436623645	0.6323704744369	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-10 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	37.85	29.24	33.545	0.18032465261388	0.0735	0.1535	9.24	9.3935	T	T	5.85	-22.15	43	309.20185323828	0.055756716772759	0.6370702354173	88	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	H
2020-02-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.15	30.06	34.105	137.17206503509	0.1504	0.2404	9.24	9.4804	T	T	6.15	-15.85	43	394.04220920177	54.051583547196	0.65104370965488	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-09 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.18	29.46	33.82	136.94652293916	0.0891	0.1491	9.25	9.3991	T	T	6.18	-3.82	43	393.92539031949	53.946712501707	0.65243023140996	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.25	28.35	33.3	136.99965867135	0.0893	0.1393	9.25	9.3893	T	T	6.25	-3.75	43	393.95291784602	53.971415277487	0.65565750636311	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-09 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	39.51	27.34	33.425	136.83914073459	0.0399	0.1099	9.25	9.3599	T	T	7.51	-3.49	43	393.86974849377	53.896797945235	0.71162926474149	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-09 08:01:15	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	34.35	29.86	32.105	136.56510352504	0.0759	0.1159	9.25	9.3659	T	T	2.35	-6.65	43	393.7276828796	53.769461773126	0.46538768178503	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-09 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	39.77	27.92	33.845	0	0.0802	0.1202	9.25	9.3702	T	T	7.77	-4.23	43	309.06959209287	0	0.72262398960609	88	4	1	1	2	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-02-09 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	39.25	30.74	34.995	136.44748126661	0.0899	0.1299	9.25	9.3799	T	T	7.25	-1.75	43	393.66667513572	53.714826280869	0.70043349124615	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-08 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	39	30.69	34.845	136.34413021234	0.1107	0.1307	9.35	9.4807	T	T	7	8	43	393.61305446522	53.666829551285	0.68948647584033	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.24	29.51	33.875	136.37022127868	0.0586	0.0686	9.35	9.4186	T	T	6.24	7.24	43	393.62659237982	53.678945504009	0.65519715333361	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.27	29.56	33.915	136.6929681696	0.0586	0.0786	9.35	9.4286	T	T	6.27	7.27	43	393.79398242149	53.82886830452	0.65657752073417	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.15	28.92	33.535	138.19033878586	0.0517	0.0517	9.66	9.7117	T	T	6.15	-0.85	43	394.56878884603	54.525594604958	0.65104370965488	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 04:01:15	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.06	29.92	33.99	2.3319034787427	0.073	0.073	10.05	10.123	T	T	6.06	6.06	43	310.77528822515	0.7246979757195	0.64687209954229	88	3	1	1	1	4	2	10	WET	H
2020-02-08 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.09	29.98	34.035	141.02782590023	0.073	0.073	10.41	10.483	T	T	6.09	6.09	43	396.02897281051	55.851105028966	0.64826462709254	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-07 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	37.63	29.49	33.56	139.8106086394	0.0766	0.0766	11.63	11.7066	T	T	5.63	16.63	43	395.4038759096	55.281656549298	0.62670455275003	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-07 16:01:15	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	35.31	28.7	32.005	140.06245419477	0.0482	0.0482	11.71	11.7582	T	T	3.31	14.31	43	395.53336876972	55.399374345812	0.51321555512256	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	35.36	28.75	32.055	141.82500667254	0.0482	0.0482	11.62	11.6682	T	T	3.36	14.36	43	396.4373156182	56.224724932796	0.51570734125063	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	39.15	28.83	33.99	141.62635019514	0.0017	0.0017	11.81	11.8117	T	T	7.15	15.15	43	396.33563442413	56.131569355766	0.69607563564757	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-07 04:01:16	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	38.78	27.9	33.34	6.2740828989833	0.0017	0.0017	12.21	12.2117	T	T	6.78	17.78	43	313.63596088149	1.9677780186728	0.67971196378129	88	3	1	1	1	4	2	10	WET	H
2020-02-07 00:01:13	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	39.67	28.17	33.92	140.87947916523	0.0017	0.0017	12.71	12.7117	T	T	7.67	23.67	43	395.95289333226	55.781637386614	0.71841954919334	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	35.84	27.37	31.605	140.92289622208	0.0263	0.0463	14.77	14.8163	T	T	3.84	14.84	43	395.9751626948	55.801966758963	0.53958314501336	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	36.29	27.18	31.735	141.36887923953	0.0264	0.0464	14.86	14.9064	T	T	4.29	19.29	43	396.20377300836	56.010883340665	0.56183943338153	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	36.32	27.21	31.765	141.25089200908	0.0264	0.0464	14.78	14.8264	T	T	4.32	20.32	43	396.14331809881	55.955597044892	0.56331704715819	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	32.24	20.07	26.155	141.80417118323	0.0698	0.4798	15.25	15.7298	T	T	0.24	5.24	43	396.42665349911	56.214953034385	0.36293503380407	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	27.84	12.08	19.96	10.876783146072	0.1336	0.7636	16.18	16.9436	T	T	-4.16	0.84	43	316.9399009966	3.4472865734775	0.183865600633	88	1	1	1	3	3	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	27.88	12.11	19.995	145.30817228686	0.1336	0.7636	16.77	17.5336	T	T	-4.12	3.88	43	398.21184306046	57.863435098098	0.1851988511053	88	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	22.57	11	16.785	148.81955991864	0.0748	0.8548	18.57	19.4248	T	T	-9.43	-3.43	43	399.98492791397	59.525580946245	0.059315128516894	88	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	20.63	16.38	18.505	149.91979245698	0.0216	0.9316	18.7	19.6316	T	T	-11.37	-7.37	43	400.53724741049	60.048461003073	0.035619227023982	88	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	19.93	16.4	18.165	150.60598727842	0.0211	0.9311	18.7	19.6311	T	T	-12.07	-9.07	43	400.88093822702	60.375069482779	0.029254845340505	88	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	18.42	17.28	17.85	153.19334774911	0.0644	1.0544	18.64	19.6944	T	T	-13.58	-13.58	43	402.17148162822	61.609995639847	0.018688772926965	88	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-05 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	135	-150	20.83	20.26	20.545	19.434014764054	0.0448	1.0148	19.12	20.1348	T	T	-11.17	-10.17	43	322.9807839995	6.2768133247521	0.037632490052884	88	1	1	1	4	2	2	12	WET	L