Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 24, 2020

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DAY 85 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/25/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.78°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.71°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.24°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.910 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 20 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.29 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.38 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.67 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 80 in SWE DAY: 8 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 389.55 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 26.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 165 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-25 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	85	165	43.77992	36.71006	40.24499	180.94780083333	0	0.29	9.38	9.67	T	T	11.77992	19.77992	8	389.54730809477	70.487728720294	0.90971050004674	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-25 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	85	165	43.77992	36.71006	40.24499	180.94780083333	0	0.29	9.38	9.67	T	T	11.77992	19.77992	8	389.54730809477	70.487728720294	0.90971050004674	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-24 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	85	165	46.26	35.59	40.925	112.37685466667	0.0102	0.3002	9.38	9.6802	T	T	14.26	22.26	8	349.90651363574	39.321393429764	0.94996740882912	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	45.26	35.49	40.375	112.31415683333	0.0114	0.3014	9.38	9.6814	T	T	13.26	21.26	8	349.86701690899	39.295019007926	0.93590438125991	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	44.75	35.39	40.07	112.24194216667	0.0081	0.2981	9.38	9.6781	T	T	12.75	20.75	8	349.82151722346	39.264646504851	0.92764023316274	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-23 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	85	165	44.99	34.13	39.56	79.09062	0.0018	0.3018	9.38	9.6818	T	T	12.99	17.99	8	328.02752915459	25.943900657904	0.93162530789824	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-23 18:57:44	FORECAST	2021	85	165	45.04	33.85	39.445	79.219305333333	0.0002	0.3002	9.38	9.6802	T	T	13.04	18.04	8	328.11572545717	25.99309983966	0.93243387905602	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-23 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	85	165	44.98	35.84	40.41	79.079030666667	0.0002	0.3002	9.38	9.6802	T	T	12.98	17.98	8	328.01958482692	25.939470807796	0.93146270442465	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-23 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	85	165	45.22	35.41	40.315	78.717192	0	0.3	9.38	9.68	T	T	13.22	18.22	8	327.7714317586	25.801246725856	0.9352838692695	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-23 06:57:55	FORECAST	2021	85	165	45.1	35.85	40.475	78.715911415458	0	0.3	9.38	9.68	T	T	13.1	14.1	8	327.7705531141	25.800757823525	0.93339442184463	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	45.2	36.54	40.87	78.640027034566	0	0.3	9.38	9.68	T	T	13.2	14.2	8	327.71848163714	25.771790255671	0.93497187483852	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-22 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	85	165	45.51	36.19	40.85	76.649338829942	0.0006	0.0206	9.38	9.4006	T	T	13.51	21.51	8	326.34889019889	25.01442666163	0.93967869180546	88	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-12-22 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	85	165	45.36	34.44	39.9	76.713484854672	0	0.02	9.38	9.4	T	T	13.36	21.36	8	326.3931306622	25.038754485724	0.93743549280105	88	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-12-22 14:57:50	FORECAST	2021	85	165	44.93	35.5	40.215	76.726048467967	0	0.02	9.38	9.4	T	T	12.93	19.93	8	326.40179473653	25.043519922987	0.93064522465348	88	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-12-22 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	85	165	44.76	36.68	40.72	76.771624588762	0	0.02	9.38	9.4	T	T	12.76	19.76	8	326.4332224583	25.060808807869	0.92780974371977	88	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-12-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	43.31	34.71	39.01	77.160508131507	0	0.02	9.38	9.4	T	T	11.31	17.31	8	326.70123523376	25.208433317828	0.89992556399109	88	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-12-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	43.55	34.82	39.185	77.425094258888	0	0.1	9.38	9.48	T	T	11.55	18.55	8	326.88343279861	25.308980596101	0.90501529052776	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-21 23:01:12	FORECAST	2021	85	165	43.99	34.15	39.07	80.826717287979	0.0008	0.1708	9.14	9.3108	T	T	11.99	21.99	8	329.21496228257	26.609364683386	0.91384832031917	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-21 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	85	165	44.29	33.05	38.67	80.570510631238	0.0012	0.1612	9.14	9.3012	T	T	12.29	23.29	8	329.04005458296	26.510925215879	0.91950982155744	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-21 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	85	165	44.5	33.03	38.765	80.657056503566	0.0002	0.1402	9.14	9.2802	T	T	12.5	22.5	8	329.0991506323	26.544168787825	0.92330300833831	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-21 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	85	165	38.65	34.3	36.475	84.413070703863	0.0007	0.1507	9.14	9.2907	T	T	6.65	18.65	8	331.65139104566	27.995712321372	0.76054965560345	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	38.32	33.57	35.945	84.183886748761	0.0016	0.1416	9.51	9.6516	T	T	6.32	18.32	8	331.49635535532	27.906651636859	0.74777863115307	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-21 03:00:10	FORECAST	2021	85	165	42.31	32.57	37.44	84.895394332688	0.001	0.141	10.12	10.261	T	T	10.31	21.31	8	331.97737303221	28.183349993099	0.87658299747908	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-20 22:57:46	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.44	34.28	37.86	86.444645637629	0.0004	0.1704	10.13	10.3004	T	T	9.44	22.44	8	333.02174850563	28.787947039193	0.85338459453187	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-20 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.44	34.28	37.86	86.094772108675	0.0004	0.1704	10.05	10.2204	T	T	9.44	18.44	8	332.78625220382	28.651156544388	0.85338459453187	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-20 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.38	33.07	37.225	86.637059537818	0.0004	0.1104	10.35	10.4604	T	T	9.38	19.38	8	333.15117117051	28.863237851793	0.85168363314596	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-20 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	85	165	40.86	32.85	36.855	87.764299638006	0.0016	0.1216	10.2	10.3216	T	T	8.86	11.86	8	333.90811317975	29.305211696669	0.83639211837997	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-20 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	40.86	32.85	36.855	87.126549935739	0.0016	0.1116	10.2	10.3116	T	T	8.86	23.86	8	333.48013033406	29.054973228127	0.83639211837997	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	40.89	32.72	36.805	86.751630564101	0.0016	0.1316	10.51	10.6416	T	T	8.89	24.89	8	333.22820462556	28.908090101216	0.83730113666041	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.78	33.59	37.685	80.397233539832	0.0016	0.1916	11.5	11.6916	T	T	9.78	31.78	8	328.92169687473	26.444394479955	0.86277616956606	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-19 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.78	33.59	37.685	79.50175391879	0.0016	0.1816	11.36	11.5416	T	T	9.78	30.78	8	328.30920452033	26.101157587049	0.86277616956606	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-19 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.74	33.59	37.665	79.898378383891	0.0016	0.2016	11.13	11.3316	T	T	9.74	33.74	8	328.58066057625	26.25306194835	0.86169304887518	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-19 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	85	165	42.08	33.68	37.88	80.113805912097	0.0003	0.1503	10.58	10.7303	T	T	10.08	33.08	8	328.72798801578	26.33565022977	0.87071534715406	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	42.08	33.68	37.88	81.242488571908	0.0003	0.2303	10.2	10.4303	T	T	10.08	34.08	8	329.49855977704	26.769282977147	0.87071534715406	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-19 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	42.61	32.31	37.46	83.04153818142	0.0003	0.2803	10.59	10.8703	T	T	10.61	31.61	8	330.72224524553	27.463683956002	0.88395329861971	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.48	31.53	36.505	81.801642066708	0.0017	0.4817	10.81	11.2917	T	T	9.48	37.48	8	329.87948631998	26.984683665097	0.85451128772396	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-18 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.48	31.53	36.505	81.855511678348	0.0017	0.4717	11.89	12.3617	T	T	9.48	41.48	8	329.91615674004	27.00545582091	0.85451128772396	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-18 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.43	30.56	35.995	81.918903583567	0.0021	0.6921	11.39	12.0821	T	T	9.43	34.43	8	329.95930280259	27.029904312786	0.85310201127782	88	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-12-18 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.32	30.73	36.025	89.893445198681	0.0002	0.5702	12.55	13.1202	T	T	9.32	39.32	8	335.33193564331	30.14414298012	0.84996955822983	88	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-12-18 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.32	30.73	36.025	88.627127858725	0.0002	0.5702	12.55	13.1202	T	T	9.32	41.32	8	334.48603997194	29.644537031552	0.84996955822983	88	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-12-18 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.56	30.29	35.925	87.429056661142	0.0002	0.4102	12.15	12.5602	T	T	9.56	33.56	8	333.68322382271	29.173609482468	0.85674721276037	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-17 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	85	165	40.39	29.41	34.9	76.113992899905	0.0011	0.5111	13.91	14.4211	T	T	8.39	33.39	8	325.9793896315	24.811592947927	0.82172281195891	88	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-17 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	85	165	41.89	31.69	36.79	88.298141109872	0.0011	0.4311	13.81	14.2411	T	T	9.89	31.89	8	334.26583233523	29.515051631745	0.86572490473202	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-17 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	85	165	40.39	29.41	34.9	90.941210444134	0.0004	0.5104	15.59	16.1004	T	T	8.39	35.39	8	336.02978524826	30.55895541576	0.82172281195891	88	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-17 10:58:10	FORECAST	2021	85	165	32.23	29.97	31.1	83.404274712277	0	0.18	12.27	12.45	T	T	0.23	16.23	8	330.96829631343	27.60417070678	0.46779792877406	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	85	165	32.23	30.02	31.125	80.499820774492	0	0.18	12.42	12.6	T	T	0.23	22.23	8	328.9917758444	26.483778991756	0.46779792877406	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-17 02:58:14	FORECAST	2021	85	165	33.79	32.79	33.29	81.118671099755	0	0.03	11.81	11.84	T	T	1.79	19.79	8	329.41413522099	26.721636890601	0.54414263396496	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L