Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 19, 2020

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DAY 50 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/20/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.80°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.52°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.66°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.142 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 48 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.38 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.94 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.28 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.22 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 55 in SWE DAY: 43 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.45 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 18.90 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 130 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-20 07:00:24	OBSERVATION	2021	50	130	26.79998	24.51992	25.65995	54.563240909091	1.38	2.94	12.28	15.22	T	T	-5.20002	47.79998	43	346.44876852411	18.903367619639	0.14216750547112	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-20 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	50	130	26.79998	24.51992	25.65995	54.563240909091	1.38	2.94	12.28	15.22	T	T	-5.20002	47.79998	43	346.44876852411	18.903367619639	0.14216750547112	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-19 10:59:32	FORECAST	2021	50	130	28.65	24.93	26.79	44.240905600624	0.548	2.108	12.28	14.388	T	T	-3.35	49.65	43	339.76884930557	15.03168158816	0.19397533958957	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	29.31	25.65	27.48	43.98018508391	0.631	2.191	12.28	14.471	T	T	-2.69	50.31	43	339.59785047057	14.935576317794	0.21493629359374	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-19 03:00:23	FORECAST	2021	50	130	28.02	24.7	26.36	44.96392678663	0.8769	2.4369	12.28	14.7169	T	T	-3.98	49.02	43	340.24246537913	15.29863730301	0.17517286265522	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-18 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.78	23.1	25.44	49.754903844179	0.9607	2.2107	12.28	14.4907	T	T	-4.22	51.78	43	343.3589203192	17.083790064523	0.16832409735896	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-18 18:59:58	FORECAST	2021	50	130	26.96	22.86	24.91	49.477804900308	0.8762	2.1262	12.28	14.4062	T	T	-5.04	50.96	43	343.17970327386	16.97977840433	0.14623985030287	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-18 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.96	25.84	26.9	49.514490282416	0.9225	2.1725	12.28	14.4525	T	T	-4.04	51.96	43	343.20343722707	16.993543257472	0.17344435942645	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-18 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.74	25.56	26.65	51.802980533644	0.9999	2.2499	12.28	14.5299	T	T	-4.26	51.74	43	344.67963400426	17.855432370666	0.16719956694577	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-18 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.64	26.18	26.91	51.202192172755	0.9058	2.3858	12.28	14.6658	T	T	-4.36	53.64	43	344.29292412367	17.6285524647	0.16440942955504	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-18 03:00:21	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.57	25.88	26.725	52.600491353757	0.9261	2.5261	12.28	14.8061	T	T	-4.43	50.57	43	345.19205762021	18.157271842237	0.16247435207356	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-17 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.26	25.31	26.285	57.908809457912	0.7277	2.5477	12.28	14.8277	T	T	-4.74	35.26	43	348.57648355361	20.185649167615	0.15408318778776	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-17 18:59:59	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.95	25.15	26.55	57.554510313271	0.7354	2.5854	12.28	14.8654	T	T	-4.05	40.95	43	348.35201138939	20.049229432159	0.17315733202927	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-17 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.57	25.51	26.54	57.743644069237	0.7575	2.6475	12.28	14.9275	T	T	-4.43	40.57	43	348.47186538706	20.122035363053	0.16247435207356	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-17 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.14	25.36	26.25	57.578672816495	0.7412	2.5712	12.28	14.8512	T	T	-4.86	36.14	43	348.36732636779	20.058528304888	0.15091316236865	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	30.63	25.66	28.145	57.099334846085	0.7673	2.6573	12.28	14.9373	T	T	-1.37	52.63	43	348.06333071245	19.874184667994	0.26057544650385	88	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-17 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	30.46	25.79	28.125	57.53751619862	0.7459	2.5359	12.28	14.8159	T	T	-1.54	50.46	43	348.3412394052	20.042689704924	0.25443101365061	88	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.54	25.21	26.375	54.739336497821	0.7164	2.6464	12.39	15.0364	T	T	-4.46	47.54	43	346.56121318467	18.970530865608	0.16164957722019	88	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-16 18:59:44	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.61	24.97	28.79	54.705139546763	0.7755	3.0955	12.39	15.4855	T	T	0.61	53.61	43	346.53938088521	18.957485189774	0.3372977092155	88	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.04	24.65	28.345	54.887957523515	0.7749	2.9449	12.39	15.3349	T	T	0.039999999999999	48.04	43	346.65607501836	19.027243920876	0.31430779499516	88	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 10:59:44	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.19	24.25	25.72	53.932046620641	0.7918	3.0018	12.39	15.3918	T	T	-4.81	46.19	43	346.04531015547	18.662931800159	0.15279324767496	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-16 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	30.23	25.11	27.67	54.827509719164	0.8898	3.0298	12.67	15.6998	T	T	-1.77	51.23	43	346.61749671203	19.004174169811	0.24643238273355	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-16 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	31.38	24.65	28.015	55.534609826661	0.8922	2.9522	12.71	15.6622	T	T	-0.62	48.38	43	347.06840365678	19.274308380241	0.28854219367084	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-15 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.17	24.57	28.37	46.004900361747	0.7947	2.6047	11.71	14.3147	T	T	0.17	48.17	43	340.92283081468	15.684120862674	0.31930325111276	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-15 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.17	24.55	28.36	47.047205296459	0.7964	2.7864	11.63	14.4164	T	T	0.17	49.17	43	341.60226640215	16.071431957158	0.31930325111276	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-15 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	33.33	25.77	29.55	46.441185492122	0.83	3.08	11.64	14.72	T	T	1.33	53.33	43	341.20744599248	15.84607829063	0.3667637592532	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-15 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.83	24.88	28.855	47.402612809821	0.7539	2.6239	11.5	14.1239	T	T	0.83	51.83	43	341.83353095719	16.203802513377	0.34600424070511	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-15 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.84	24.88	28.86	48.32534334729	0.7539	2.7639	11.7	14.4639	T	T	0.84	52.84	43	342.43298029796	16.548191346335	0.34641517417474	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-15 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.48	25.03	28.755	49.627365693046	0.7267	2.7367	11.8	14.5367	T	T	0.48	54.48	43	343.27644916711	17.035905876627	0.33173873457118	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-14 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	28.3	23.75	26.025	48.52607754186	1.1156	3.3856	11.56	14.9456	T	T	-3.7	53.3	43	342.56320075247	16.623248442702	0.18384555479565	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-14 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	28.3	23.76	26.03	48.937255307699	1.1156	3.3056	11.64	14.9456	T	T	-3.7	47.3	43	342.82973313538	16.777146177516	0.18384555479565	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-14 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	27.49	24.12	25.805	47.78381566793	0.9886	3.0386	11.62	14.6586	T	T	-4.51	50.49	43	342.08134866788	16.345952108183	0.16082197701489	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-14 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.26	24.38	28.32	48.214351792398	1.1529	3.0929	11.52	14.6129	T	T	0.26	48.26	43	342.36094925337	16.506711247281	0.32289347157453	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-14 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.27	24.38	28.325	57.372407477958	1.1529	3.0629	11.52	14.5829	T	T	0.27	52.27	43	348.23655846405	19.979169730921	0.32329341291368	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-14 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	29.85	24.25	27.05	55.209128240932	0.8628	2.3728	11.63	14.0028	T	T	-2.15	46.85	43	346.8609496081	19.149890648685	0.23327765077724	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-13 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	33.32	24.44	28.88	42.742727812179	1.0842	2.3742	11.26	13.6342	T	T	1.32	49.32	43	338.78469300753	14.480581920153	0.36634448626195	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-13 18:59:54	FORECAST	2021	50	130	33.67	25.7	29.685	39.10069830296	0.7447	1.9747	11.61	13.5847	T	T	1.67	56.67	43	336.37655944439	13.152558367023	0.38111057919107	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-13 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	33.68	25.7	29.69	39.26802813417	0.7447	1.9747	11.78	13.7547	T	T	1.68	54.68	43	336.48768793677	13.213207996703	0.3815351383208	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-13 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	28.38	24.32	26.35	42.166282411103	0.1947	2.1947	11.23	13.4247	T	T	-3.62	54.38	43	338.40502592579	14.269281892524	0.18622560734198	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-13 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	28.61	24.46	26.535	43.360785908447	0.1947	2.1947	11.5	13.6947	T	T	-3.39	56.61	43	339.19115059768	14.707594863106	0.19317371212668	87	1	4	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-13 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	50	130	34.26	26.91	30.585	45.885497013197	0.2489	1.7489	12.54	14.2889	T	T	2.26	64.26	43	340.84488180127	15.639836805856	0.40638765153598	87	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-12 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	31.6	25.92	28.76	44.73367932259	0.4869	1.4469	13.51	14.9569	T	T	-0.4	80.6	43	340.09173582335	15.213554650584	0.2969677461623	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-12 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.62	25.66	29.14	44.182768399241	0.6716	1.3216	13.51	14.8316	T	T	0.62	84.62	43	339.73072865339	15.010244102198	0.33741714560246	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-12 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	50	130	32.64	26.27	29.455	44.522967027156	0.5894	1.2394	13.65	14.8894	T	T	0.64	84.64	43	339.95371752965	15.135748156332	0.33823141432904	87	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-12 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	50	130	41	38.47	39.735	38.936955529003	0.1941	0.7241	13.32	14.0441	T	T	9	90	43	336.26776748534	13.093243108414	0.69633939717762	87	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-12 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	50	130	36.63	35.79	36.21	41.018299907443	0.0584	0.7184	13.5	14.2184	T	T	4.63	81.63	43	337.64726664413	13.849716846138	0.5108250372316	87	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-12 03:00:03	FORECAST	2021	50	130	36.64	35.95	36.295	39.266764529374	0.0126	0.6726	13.4	14.0726	T	T	4.64	83.64	43	336.48684891792	13.212749863691	0.5112692325953	87	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L