Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 17, 2020

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DAY 48 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/18/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.48°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.10°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.79°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.950 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 106 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.51 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.71 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.08 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.79 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 46 in SWE DAY: 45 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.75 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 15.71 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 128 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-18 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	48	128	49.47998	28.09994	38.78996	45.82668	0.51000000000005	2.71	10.08	12.79	T	T	17.47998	106.47998	45	342.75298082268	15.707231171207	0.95006869796642	88	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-18 03:00:20	OBSERVATION	2021	48	128	49.47998	28.09994	38.78996	45.82668	0.51000000000005	2.71	10.08	12.79	T	T	17.47998	106.47998	45	342.75298082268	15.707231171207	0.95006869796642	88	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-17 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	48	128	36.46	31.01	33.735	51.992047231251	0.8081	3.0081	10.08	13.0881	T	T	4.46	93.46	45	346.71746848072	18.026550997149	0.52289723834405	88	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	47.95	31.28	39.615	51.538130532097	0.884	3.084	10.08	13.164	T	T	15.95	104.95	45	346.42770096751	17.854236072398	0.92764977670391	88	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-17 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	47.02	30.89	38.955	51.292996653353	0.8143	3.0143	10.08	13.0943	T	T	15.02	104.02	45	346.27107548658	17.761281116086	0.91067435207922	88	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-16 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	48	128	46.67	30.92	38.795	48.578110755806	0.9342	3.2442	10.08	13.3242	T	T	14.67	102.67	45	344.52989365745	16.736611332778	0.90357361568545	88	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-16 18:59:42	FORECAST	2021	48	128	47.52	30.62	39.07	48.677318813209	1.1269	3.4369	10.08	13.5169	T	T	15.52	103.52	45	344.59373195823	16.773898951564	0.92013513059339	88	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-16 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	44.16	30.66	37.41	48.782991861844	1.0604	3.3704	10.08	13.4504	T	T	12.16	100.16	45	344.66171265427	16.813629523502	0.84035869306031	88	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-16 10:59:44	FORECAST	2021	48	128	46.41	31.24	38.825	47.939647764652	1.1291	3.4391	10.08	13.5191	T	T	14.41	102.41	45	344.11867102117	16.496927877995	0.89995525234525	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-16 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.62	31.09	38.355	48.434957098511	0.9478	3.5378	10.08	13.6178	T	T	13.62	100.62	45	344.43774892835	16.682827592452	0.88197107642818	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-16 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.89	31.36	38.625	48.424089965652	0.8466	3.4766	10.08	13.5566	T	T	13.89	100.89	45	344.43075263558	16.678745752563	0.8883576392803	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-15 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	48	128	42.38	30.56	36.47	40.281152599992	0.8572	2.4872	10.08	12.5672	T	T	10.38	97.38	45	339.133641352	13.660693959091	0.78519029966611	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-15 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.22	31.11	38.165	40.21102886764	0.7657	2.3157	10.08	12.3957	T	T	13.22	101.22	45	339.08754726341	13.635059151666	0.87204299003937	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-15 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.6	31.03	38.315	39.935565283297	0.8943	2.4543	10.08	12.5343	T	T	13.6	102.6	45	338.906398647	13.534418608094	0.88148795267167	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-15 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.23	30.92	38.075	41.425843376787	0.8072	2.2272	10.08	12.3072	T	T	13.23	102.23	45	339.88491561111	14.080019280238	0.87229803737008	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-15 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.04	30.25	37.645	42.710119487686	0.7829	2.4029	10.08	12.4829	T	T	13.04	102.04	45	340.72520535484	14.552414233171	0.86739173699814	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-15 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.18	30.86	38.02	42.574260958427	0.8105	2.5305	10.08	12.6105	T	T	13.18	102.18	45	340.63644399183	14.502344858459	0.87101927331817	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-14 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.46	29.67	37.565	37.944788785709	0.7642	2.8142	9.51	12.3242	T	T	13.46	109.46	45	337.59346209374	12.809912614583	0.87806706037028	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-14 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.18	30.41	37.795	38.120063788128	0.7202	2.8502	9.51	12.3602	T	T	13.18	104.18	45	337.70932438279	12.873500987318	0.87101927331817	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-14 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	44.98	29.84	37.41	37.886203121519	0.6586	2.7686	9.51	12.2786	T	T	12.98	103.98	45	337.55472362373	12.788666823837	0.86581582790627	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-14 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	48	128	40.84	30.74	35.79	38.463312484257	0.7659	2.7759	9.51	12.2859	T	T	8.84	99.84	45	337.93607320254	12.998140783292	0.72647054554965	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-14 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	43.36	30.76	37.06	43.738117906885	0.7394	2.6694	9.59	12.2594	T	T	11.36	104.36	45	341.39584263513	14.932011618095	0.81840286100585	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-14 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	40.69	29.77	35.23	44.490342469806	0.5298	2.4598	9.7	12.1598	T	T	8.69	97.69	45	341.88546450633	15.210601401335	0.72035463935075	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-13 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	41.09	31.53	36.31	32.051081309749	0.6506	2.6206	9.29	11.9106	T	T	9.09	99.09	45	333.66735517556	10.694399531141	0.73651451455418	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-13 18:59:54	FORECAST	2021	48	128	42.25	32.49	37.37	31.424366269281	0.656	2.896	9.37	12.266	T	T	10.25	106.25	45	333.24639983962	10.472056926479	0.78053436840985	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-13 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	42.23	32.52	37.375	31.387309780677	0.656	3.026	9.41	12.436	T	T	10.23	104.23	45	333.22148854915	10.458926086671	0.7798129701788	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-13 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	40.94	31.94	36.44	34.391690707062	0.8826	2.8526	9.26	12.1126	T	T	8.94	107.94	45	335.23359693826	11.529250180517	0.73051074980532	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-13 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	41.65	31.94	36.795	35.529264561079	0.8826	2.8426	9.54	12.3826	T	T	9.65	109.65	45	335.99145969085	11.937529461619	0.75831037350066	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-13 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	48	128	42.77	30.68	36.725	39.131917479414	0.6489	2.8489	10.34	13.1889	T	T	10.77	109.77	45	338.37718401407	13.241348041755	0.79880970006429	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-12 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	46.87	37.44	42.155	39.796450095999	0.3217	2.4217	11.41	13.8317	T	T	14.87	120.87	45	338.81486642024	13.483628923276	0.9094613322184	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-12 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	48.78	37.17	42.975	38.111475460782	0.0353	2.1753	11.37	13.5453	T	T	16.78	124.78	45	337.70364843004	12.870384310158	0.94187888658623	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-12 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	48	128	48.78	37.17	42.975	39.037968910306	0.0353	2.3353	11.35	13.6853	T	T	16.78	124.78	45	338.31524685943	13.207140088781	0.94187888658623	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-12 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	48	128	48.14	38.54	43.34	40.54142219567	0.2659	2.2559	11.33	13.5859	T	T	16.14	117.14	45	339.3046513192	13.755893122086	0.93222118202439	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-12 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	48	128	48.14	38.55	43.345	42.191227907443	0.2659	2.5059	11.26	13.7659	T	T	16.14	114.14	45	340.38602946723	14.361304545762	0.93222118202439	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-12 03:00:03	FORECAST	2021	48	128	48.13	38.56	43.345	40.353756529374	0.2659	2.4259	11.24	13.6659	T	T	16.13	116.13	45	339.1813570864	13.687241903167	0.93206103100539	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-11 22:59:55	FORECAST	2021	48	128	46.42	37.71	42.065	37.444894009366	0.1802	1.2502	11.41	12.6602	T	T	14.42	128.42	45	337.26273243753	12.628767269433	0.90016934676692	87	5	4	1	4	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-11 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	48	128	46.42	37.72	42.07	38.091425686128	0.1802	1.1702	10.98	12.1502	T	T	14.42	119.42	45	337.69039722195	12.863108670699	0.90016934676692	87	5	4	1	4	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-11 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	48	128	44.47	35.79	40.13	39.834984782836	0.4898	1.9298	11.12	13.0498	T	T	12.47	125.47	45	338.84022394105	13.497695164504	0.85190303750759	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-11 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.34	31.82	38.58	43.899055006126	0.5115	2.9015	11.53	14.4315	T	T	13.34	122.34	45	341.50067503594	14.991556918032	0.87508031595938	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-11 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	48	128	45.34	31.82	38.58	45.684217335954	0.5115	2.9015	11.63	14.5315	T	T	13.34	123.34	45	342.66063784915	15.654183051977	0.87508031595938	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-11 03:00:02	FORECAST	2021	48	128	48.01	40.27	44.14	40.13465886302	0.0482	2.0482	11.05	13.0982	T	T	16.01	125.01	45	339.03733800292	13.607147902574	0.93011643486548	87	5	4	1	5	1	2	25	WET	L
2020-11-10 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	48	128	44.24	32.56	38.4	42.250336010157	0.292	4.432	10.64	15.072	T	T	12.24	128.24	45	340.42468831719	14.383057467554	0.84532430508434	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-10 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	48	128	44.24	32.56	38.4	42.869551066565	0.2202	4.3602	10.88	15.2402	T	T	12.24	126.24	45	340.82932880094	14.611200316015	0.84532430508434	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-10 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	48	128	41.61	34.79	38.2	46.463104715905	0.4091	4.6691	10.98	15.6491	T	T	9.61	117.61	45	343.16509758345	15.944515863864	0.75678662288144	87	4	4	1	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-10 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	48	128	37.45	24.51	30.98	51.381473778481	1.4879	3.2479	10.73	13.9779	T	T	5.45	106.45	45	346.32761817862	17.794823432208	0.57500317575481	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-10 07:00:03	FORECAST	2021	48	128	37.45	32.07	34.76	48.068557173173	1.0986	2.8586	10.88	13.7386	T	T	5.45	109.45	45	344.20175301323	16.545281643823	0.57500317575481	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-11-10 03:00:05	FORECAST	2021	48	128	38.79	38.21	38.5	54.60581416154	0.4038	2.2138	11.62	13.8338	T	T	6.79	115.79	45	348.37953795259	19.023548307122	0.63772748059974	87	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L