morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 10, 2020

[ Friday, October 9, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 11, 2020 ]

DAY 10 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/11/2020 08:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 44.34°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 30.37°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 37.36°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.332 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 478 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 2.37 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 2.37 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 4.82 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 7.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 84 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.74 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 90 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 3 D₃: 5 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 112.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-11 07:59:56	OBSERVATION	2021	10	90	44.34008	30.36992	37.355	2.37	2.37	4.82	7.19	T	T	12.34008	478.34008	84	350.7390628119	0.33232399466006	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 04:00:10	OBSERVATION	2021	10	90	44.34008	30.36992	37.355	2.37	2.37	4.82	7.19	T	T	12.34008	478.34008	84	350.7390628119	0.33232399466006	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	34.06	34.06	34.06	0.0483	0.0483	4.82	4.8683	T	F	2.06	468.06	83	349.7980644861	0.087808955143908	92	1	4	3	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2020-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	34.84	27.99	31.415	0.6328	0.6328	4.82	5.4528	T	F	2.84	468.84	83	349.7980644861	0.099497983995409	92	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-10-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	10	90	37.93	28.17	33.05	1.127	1.127	4.82	5.947	T	F	5.93	471.93	83	349.7980644861	0.15685300314443	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2020-10-10 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	10	90	41.61	28.26	34.935	1.7146	1.7146	4.82	6.5346	T	T	9.61	475.61	83	349.7980644861	0.24891303438271	92	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	45.9	28.8	37.35	2.1992	2.2192	4.82	7.0392	T	T	13.9	470.9	84	350.7390628119	0.38443084035313	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.55	28.85	36.7	2.103	2.163	4.82	6.983	T	T	12.55	478.55	84	350.7390628119	0.33917597136725	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	10	90	45.1	29.1	37.1	1.9605	2.0205	4.82	6.8405	T	T	13.1	479.1	84	350.7390628119	0.35737729164094	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.54	29.35	36.945	1.9487	2.0087	4.82	6.8287	T	T	12.54	478.54	84	350.7390628119	0.33884833128472	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 08:00:17	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.24	29.18	36.71	1.9755	2.0555	4.82	6.8755	T	T	12.24	472.24	84	350.7390628119	0.32907673027324	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.4	29.07	36.735	2.0318	2.1618	4.82	6.9818	T	T	12.4	473.4	84	350.7390628119	0.33427425719886	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	43.47	28.59	36.03	2.2179	2.3479	4.82	7.1679	T	T	11.47	472.47	84	350.7390628119	0.30453729435938	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.21	29.01	36.61	2.2941	2.4541	4.82	7.2741	T	T	12.21	482.21	84	350.7390628119	0.32810582111298	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.22	28.94	36.58	2.1958	2.3358	4.82	7.1558	T	T	12.22	482.22	84	350.7390628119	0.32842932897724	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.58	28.77	36.675	2.4257	2.6057	4.82	7.4257	T	T	12.58	477.58	84	350.7390628119	0.34015962023727	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	10	90	43.39	28.85	36.12	2.4882	2.7482	4.82	7.5682	T	T	11.39	474.39	84	350.7390628119	0.30203498089906	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	42.81	28.7	35.755	2.4297	2.6697	4.82	7.4897	T	T	10.81	474.81	84	350.7390628119	0.28417602445705	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 00:00:16	FORECAST	2021	10	90	43.73	29.53	36.63	2.2303	2.4503	4.83	7.2803	T	T	11.73	463.73	84	350.7390628119	0.3127326682747	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	10	90	42.7	30.61	36.655	2.2978	2.4478	4.83	7.2778	T	T	10.7	478.7	84	350.7390628119	0.28084674044534	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	42.91	30.61	36.76	2.2478	2.4078	4.83	7.2378	T	T	10.91	478.91	84	350.7390628119	0.28721890991008	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-07 11:59:41	FORECAST	2021	10	90	43.79	30.33	37.06	2.4938	2.7738	4.83	7.6038	T	T	11.79	481.79	84	350.7390628119	0.31463731841943	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.31	30.33	37.32	2.4588	2.7088	4.83	7.5388	T	T	12.31	481.31	84	350.7390628119	0.33134666138226	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.97	31.01	37.99	2.1329	2.4629	4.82	7.2829	T	T	12.97	477.97	84	350.7390628119	0.35304392923834	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 23:59:42	FORECAST	2021	10	90	46.21	31.82	39.015	1.9633	2.2933	4.83	7.1233	T	T	14.21	489.21	84	350.7390628119	0.39507571709474	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	49.07	31.82	40.445	1.9506	2.0606	4.84	6.9006	T	T	17.07	492.07	84	350.7390628119	0.49597192613483	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	49.47	31.13	40.3	1.9974	2.0974	4.84	6.9374	T	T	17.47	486.47	84	350.7390628119	0.51025546517286	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	10	90	48.39	32.04	40.215	1.9615	2.0415	4.83	6.8715	T	T	16.39	487.39	84	350.7390628119	0.47171155188622	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	48.39	32.04	40.215	1.9615	2.0415	4.83	6.8715	T	T	16.39	484.39	84	350.7390628119	0.47171155188622	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	43.33	31.66	37.495	2.0763	2.4863	4.83	7.3163	T	T	11.33	480.33	84	350.7390628119	0.30016432223557	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.37	34.93	39.65	1.2184	1.5784	4.83	6.4084	T	T	12.37	471.37	84	350.7390628119	0.33329726103044	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-05 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	10	90	44.37	34.93	39.65	1.2184	1.5984	4.84	6.4384	T	T	12.37	484.37	84	350.7390628119	0.33329726103044	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	47.71	35.44	41.575	1.2056	1.2856	4.84	6.1256	T	T	15.71	490.71	84	350.7390628119	0.44755571923503	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-05 11:59:48	FORECAST	2021	10	90	53.59	40.07	46.83	0.6365	0.6665	4.84	5.5065	T	F	21.59	499.59	84	350.7390628119	0.65340085887051	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-05 08:00:00	FORECAST	2021	10	90	53.64	40.58	47.11	0.6365	0.6665	4.82	5.4865	T	F	21.64	499.64	84	350.7390628119	0.65505133621756	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-05 03:59:49	FORECAST	2021	10	90	54.42	40.18	47.3	0.7653	0.7753	4.82	5.5953	T	F	22.42	508.42	84	350.7390628119	0.68040064709279	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	46.43	35.86	41.145	1.612	1.722	4.82	6.542	T	T	14.43	489.43	84	350.7390628119	0.40267844580766	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-04 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	10	90	46.43	35.86	41.145	1.612	1.722	4.82	6.542	T	T	14.43	502.43	84	350.7390628119	0.40267844580766	92	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-04 15:59:50	FORECAST	2021	10	90	48.78	36.5	42.64	1.5706	1.5806	4.82	6.4006	T	T	16.78	500.78	84	350.7390628119	0.48561853944	92	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-04 11:59:51	FORECAST	2021	10	90	48.83	35.93	42.38	1.2747	1.3047	4.82	6.1247	T	T	16.83	500.83	84	350.7390628119	0.48740310929868	92	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	10	90	48.83	38.03	43.43	1.3853	1.4153	4.83	6.2453	T	T	16.83	498.83	84	350.7390628119	0.48740310929868	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-04 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	10	90	47.82	38.8	43.31	1.2373	1.3273	4.82	6.1473	T	T	15.82	500.82	84	350.7390628119	0.45145249669676	92	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	10	90	48.83	37.81	43.32	1.0689	1.3589	4.83	6.1889	T	T	16.83	492.83	84	350.7390628119	0.48740310929868	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	10	90	48.83	38.31	43.57	1.0032	1.2932	4.83	6.1232	T	T	16.83	512.83	84	350.7390628119	0.48740310929868	92	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	49.33	42.58	45.955	0.4266	0.6966	4.83	5.5266	T	F	17.33	514.33	84	350.7390628119	0.50525678478251	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2020-10-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	55.9	50.38	53.14	0.2918	0.5218	4.83	5.3518	T	F	23.9	521.9	84	350.7390628119	0.7261844369832	92	4	4	4	3	5	2	90	WET	MH
2020-10-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	10	90	51.57	50.91	51.24	0.2438	0.4738	4.83	5.3038	T	F	19.57	516.57	84	350.7390628119	0.58460708426181	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-03 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	10	90	51.68	51.24	51.46	0.1686	0.3986	4.82	5.2186	T	F	19.68	519.68	84	350.7390628119	0.58844261971313	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	WET	MH