Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 22, 2020

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DAY 205 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/23/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.59°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.10°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.85°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.217 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 217 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.07 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.07 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.22 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.29 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 173 in SWE DAY: 112 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.73 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 78.70 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -81 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-23 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	205	-81	36.59	31.1	33.845	173.07872208333	1.0700000000001	1.0700000000001	0.22	1.29	F	F	4.59	216.59	112	454.73186083293	78.70440936354	0.21663748229927	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-80	35.87	35.87	35.87	172.978844	0.0245	0.0245	0.22	0.2445	F	F	3.87	215.87	113	455.23868018871	78.746660643128	0.19434481577167	89	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-04-22 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	205	-80	40.62	34.29	37.455	172.99455863806	1.0203	1.0203	0.22	1.2403	F	F	8.62	220.62	113	455.24437442742	78.754799626531	0.36508015280643	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	205	-80	36.79	32.73	34.76	173.4305497329	1.2989	1.2989	0.22	1.5189	F	F	4.79	216.79	113	455.40226630442	78.980665394784	0.22308230121053	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	205	-80	40.18	33.92	37.05	174.15291746372	1.2406	1.2406	0.22	1.4606	F	F	8.18	220.18	113	455.66348343063	79.355125021127	0.34723210637907	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	40.05	34.49	37.27	175.12723240132	1.1989	1.1989	0.22	1.4189	F	F	8.05	216.05	112	455.47486094366	79.766051825438	0.34202089563562	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-21 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	40.49	33.52	37.005	175.06536389371	1.3592	1.3892	0.22	1.6092	F	F	8.49	224.49	112	455.45247764275	79.73395373482	0.35977432030766	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-21 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	39.62	33.31	36.465	175.95084975189	1.5042	1.5342	0.22	1.7542	F	F	7.62	223.62	112	455.77250119702	80.193558879161	0.32500152476807	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	39.77	34.24	37.005	175.15451189985	1.3344	1.3644	0.22	1.5844	F	F	7.77	223.77	112	455.48472922916	79.780205425971	0.33089943498761	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	40.68	34.49	37.585	174.79951460634	1.1465	1.1765	0.22	1.3965	F	F	8.68	220.68	112	455.35625644572	79.596052599672	0.3675378064838	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	39.93	34.7	37.315	173.83277558162	1.0142	1.0542	0.22	1.2742	F	F	7.93	222.93	112	455.00580775239	79.094922467356	0.33723706915605	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	37.42	34.15	35.785	175.09899429852	0.8812	0.9012	0.22	1.1212	F	F	5.42	207.42	112	455.46464516538	79.751401306989	0.24408030454172	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	37.8	34.17	35.985	175.79360893494	0.9351	0.9651	0.22	1.1851	F	F	5.8	224.8	112	455.71572532005	80.111912002414	0.25724261481865	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	41.79	34.28	38.035	175.7680805149	0.9226	0.9526	0.22	1.1726	F	F	9.79	228.79	112	455.70650548182	80.098657746692	0.41388396714747	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	41.7	33.54	37.62	174.7259180361	1.0068	1.0268	0.22	1.2468	F	F	9.7	230.7	112	455.32960749918	79.557883679312	0.41007150215933	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	37.57	34.75	36.16	175.17674228119	1.1991	1.2191	0.22	1.4391	F	F	5.57	224.57	112	455.4927705044	79.791739669593	0.2492322223366	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	41.32	34.28	37.8	175.47040437993	0.9605	1.0005	0.22	1.2205	F	F	9.32	227.32	112	455.5989526977	79.944132464939	0.39407198679066	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	37.97	34.83	36.4	174.86141294376	1.0417	1.0717	0.22	1.2917	F	F	5.97	219.97	112	455.37866566474	79.628156902579	0.26324809967901	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-19 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	41.13	34.64	37.885	176.34439667812	1.0224	1.0524	0.23	1.2824	F	F	9.13	236.13	112	455.91450216679	80.397967821409	0.38613694715173	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-19 15:59:36	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	39.96	32.77	36.365	177.30667275154	0.98	1	0.23	1.23	F	F	7.96	235.96	112	456.26111668811	80.89814050587	0.33843059987259	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	36.03	33.68	34.855	177.3941013616	1.1137	1.1437	0.23	1.3737	F	F	4.03	230.03	112	456.29256675432	80.94360983736	0.19917440812967	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	36.6	34.62	35.61	175.89612571102	1.0884	1.1084	0.24	1.3484	F	F	4.6	225.6	112	455.75274423468	80.165141993047	0.21695714825591	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-19 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	38.52	33.42	35.97	176.55475857622	1.245	1.275	0.25	1.525	F	F	6.52	233.52	112	455.9903474828	80.507265712914	0.283155479139	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	38.53	32.58	35.555	178.45475668953	1.5179	1.5679	0.11	1.6779	F	F	6.53	226.53	112	456.67355288679	81.495567766956	0.28352400605059	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	38.53	32.23	35.38	178.58500356952	1.5111	1.5511	0.2	1.7511	F	F	6.53	236.53	112	456.7202666917	81.563390457409	0.28352400605059	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	39.34	33.96	36.65	176.58797472527	1.4275	1.4775	0.19	1.6675	F	F	7.34	237.34	112	456.00231975586	80.524526115712	0.31410942825195	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-18 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	42.61	32.85	37.73	176.65806248672	1.3209	1.3609	0.21	1.5709	F	F	10.61	236.61	112	456.02757854601	80.56094846645	0.44895031804527	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	42.61	32.85	37.73	174.68609131763	1.3209	1.3609	0.28	1.6409	F	F	10.61	236.61	112	455.31518436802	79.537229874817	0.44895031804527	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	42.34	32.52	37.43	176.51608612972	1.335	1.365	0.34	1.705	F	F	10.34	236.34	112	455.9764072948	80.487170783171	0.43734603566854	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	39.56	33.94	36.75	174.77262666667	1.3505	1.3905	0.24	1.6305	F	F	7.56	222.56	112	455.34652103604	79.582107524997	0.32265447151071	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-17 19:59:37	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	39.56	33.94	36.75	175.97214845416	1.3505	1.3905	0.22	1.6105	F	F	7.56	239.56	112	455.7801899025	80.20461923999	0.32265447151071	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-17 15:58:00	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	43.46	33.46	38.46	175.86983566813	0.9911	1.0511	0.24	1.2911	F	F	11.46	243.46	112	455.74325179182	80.151490799487	0.48572201151274	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	41.38	31.67	36.525	175.93441541848	0.6698	0.7198	0.27	0.9898	F	F	9.38	234.38	112	455.76656821561	80.185024746297	0.396587122546	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	41.38	31.67	36.525	175.76599773896	0.6698	0.7198	0.34	1.0598	F	F	9.38	232.38	112	455.70575324057	80.097576393713	0.396587122546	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	39.08	30.91	34.995	176.26763829948	1.044	1.074	0.32	1.394	F	F	7.08	235.08	112	455.88681708347	80.358092579171	0.30413792751025	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	38.31	31.55	34.93	177.03228672249	0.6963	0.7163	0.24	0.9563	F	F	6.31	220.31	112	456.16236840516	80.755467195513	0.27546992540829	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	40.96	31.88	36.42	178.00168483688	0.3754	0.4154	0.25	0.6654	F	F	8.96	237.96	112	456.51093558532	81.259715680647	0.37907720407985	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	40.02	32.26	36.14	178.4847390586	0.3068	0.4968	0.24	0.7368	F	F	8.02	234.02	112	456.68430760805	81.511179475581	0.34082252366564	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	42.51	32.66	37.585	176.7377770601	0.3867	0.5767	0.24	0.8167	F	F	10.51	238.51	112	456.05630125895	80.602376898757	0.44464679935721	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 07:58:04	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	42.51	32.66	37.585	176.51761355067	0.3718	0.4418	0.21	0.6518	F	F	10.51	234.51	112	455.97695790749	80.487964443924	0.44464679935721	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	38.44	31.88	35.16	178.00185492696	0.6244	0.6444	0.21	0.8544	F	F	6.44	243.44	112	456.51099666945	81.259804201719	0.28021555851725	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 23:58:10	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	41.01	33.76	37.385	176.019504	0.686	0.746	0.23	0.976	F	F	9.01	253.01	112	455.79728348385	80.229211763374	0.38114953503554	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	41.01	34.6	37.805	177.09254436276	0.438	0.488	0.23	0.718	F	F	9.01	252.01	112	456.18406031415	80.786795938767	0.38114953503554	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	44.11	34.68	39.395	176.74701478686	0.2718	0.3118	0.2	0.5118	F	F	12.11	266.11	112	456.05962941577	80.607178064039	0.51394047248394	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	43.58	33.42	38.5	177.76200854046	0.3478	1.0478	0.2	1.2478	F	F	11.58	235.58	112	456.4248348573	81.134995391983	0.49093039242778	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	36.67	33.42	35.045	177.89944609081	0.3146	1.0146	0.22	1.2346	F	F	4.67	228.67	112	456.47421399822	81.20650982502	0.2192024163361	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	205	-81	35.09	34.96	35.025	178.12829070471	0.1164	0.8764	0.19	1.0664	F	F	3.09	230.09	112	456.55639601578	81.325610432595	0.17183504851402	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L